United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's clear Labour has pissed off a fair number of people who voted for it in 2017 and this is not consequence-free. That said, we got a fair amount of votes in 2017 from people who felt they had to pick the lesser of two evils and from people who didn't trust Corbyn but figured he wasn't going to win, so they could safely park their vote with us. I haven't seen any studies on what proportion of our vote that was, but the extent to which those voters are willing to do the same again is likely to be quite important.

[CumbrianLeftie]

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

[afleitch]

Labour say their systems have been hit by a DDoS attack.

[DaWN]

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

It would provide the advantage that we would have no way of not leaving the EU and this is what Corbyn wants, because he is a useful idiot for the Faragists. Remember, the EU once said something capitalist and that is utterly inexcusable for a good comrade to support.

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

Ah, yes, the PLP, that famously firm and not-at-all-spineless group of people. Get real. Corbyn wouldn't have to finish the word 'deselection' before they'd all bolt into line like a succession of highly paid rabbits. And frankly I find the notion that the membership would oppose Corbyn on anything utterly and completely hilarious. The only way his hand would be forced would be by any parties supporting the government threatening to pull support, which I suppose would require... oh yes, the Lib Dems. A majority Corbyn government would have no issue making a soft vs hard Brexit referendum or not having one at all. And at what cost? Some grumbling from MPs and initial outrage from voters before everyone forgets it even happened by 2024. And that's not even considering the possibility that he would try to pass it with Conservative votes.

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

You're quite right that I don't trust Corbyn on this. My evidence for it are his last three and a half years of actions, right up to the '7/10' interview. The counter-evidence is the idea that Corbyn actually wants to remain (just lol) or that the PLP will force his hand (the PLP couldn't force him to drink a glass of water.) I'm quite happy in my distrust.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

This but unironically

[CumbrianLeftie]

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

This but unironically

Ah, you subscribe to one of the most ridiculous alt-centrist memes. Good to know

In reality, Corbyn has publicly opposed a no deal Brexit on every occasion. From the beginning. And has whipped Labour MPs to oppose it again and again.

But something something DISASTER SOCIALISM something something, amirite?  

[morgieb]

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

It would provide the advantage that we would have no way of not leaving the EU and this is what Corbyn wants, because he is a useful idiot for the Faragists. Remember, the EU once said something capitalist and that is utterly inexcusable for a good comrade to support.

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

Ah, yes, the PLP, that famously firm and not-at-all-spineless group of people. Get real. Corbyn wouldn't have to finish the word 'deselection' before they'd all bolt into line like a succession of highly paid rabbits. And frankly I find the notion that the membership would oppose Corbyn on anything utterly and completely hilarious. The only way his hand would be forced would be by any parties supporting the government threatening to pull support, which I suppose would require... oh yes, the Lib Dems. A majority Corbyn government would have no issue making a soft vs hard Brexit referendum or not having one at all. And at what cost? Some grumbling from MPs and initial outrage from voters before everyone forgets it even happened by 2024. And that's not even considering the possibility that he would try to pass it with Conservative votes.

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

You're quite right that I don't trust Corbyn on this. My evidence for it are his last three and a half years of actions, right up to the '7/10' interview. The counter-evidence is the idea that Corbyn actually wants to remain (just lol) or that the PLP will force his hand (the PLP couldn't force him to drink a glass of water.) I'm quite happy in my distrust.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

This but unironically

The reason why Corbyn has shifted a lot on Brexit recently is IMO down to supporter pressure. I bet if he tried to push Labor in a Brexit direction even the supporters would revolt. The party membership does come across as cultish at times but the majority of them would draw the line at Corbyn not allowing a remain option in a referendum.

[DaWN]

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

This but unironically

Ah, you subscribe to one of the most ridiculous alt-centrist memes. Good to know

In reality, Corbyn has publicly opposed a no deal Brexit on every occasion. From the beginning. And has whipped Labour MPs to oppose it again and again.

But something something DISASTER SOCIALISM something something, amirite?  

Nice label but I think you'll find I'm firmly a creature of the left on  nearly every issue apart from 'is Jeremy Corbyn the rightful Emperor of the Galaxy?'

The only reason he whipped against No Deal is because even he is smart enough to spot the electoral consequences. I have no doubts about his personal views.

I don't necessarily agree with his economic policies but they are well down the list of issues.

The reason why Corbyn has shifted a lot on Brexit recently is IMO down to supporter pressure. I bet if he tried to push Labor in a Brexit direction even the supporters would revolt. The party membership does come across as cultish at times but the majority of them would draw the line at Corbyn not allowing a remain option in a referendum.

You ever met any Corbyn supporters lol? Worship of him comes first. The reason for the shift was electoral, notice it mainly coincides with the LD poll rise around late spring/early summer

[CumbrianLeftie]

Ah yes, its all about "belief".

You are certainly a good fit for the cult DaWN - Swinson's "remain as identity" cult, that is. 

[DaWN]

Well, guilty as charged there. I'd point out that you and I are not on as different sides as you seem to think. We both want the same thing (a fairer society), I am just of the belief that Lexit is certain to cause, not prevent, Farage and Boris' free market dystopia. That's why I am so adamant.

[Walmart_shopper]

Labour say their systems have been hit by a DDoS attack.

No, it was just a compatibility issue with the Soviet hardware the campaign is using.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

_{*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, the government's response to the flooding in Yorkshire and the East Midlands has become an election issue.

[c r a b c a k e]

Ian Lavery has clarified Labour's "neutrality" in the Kashmir conflict, fearing that Hindu voters will turn from the party.

In irrelevant microparty news, the Women's Equality Party are standing down in favour of the Lib Dems in the City of London and Westminster and Sheffield Hallam. (it looks like they were standing against all the prominent sexual misconduct cases, but of course neither Field nor O'Mara are standing again).

[cp]

Labour say their systems have been hit by a DDoS attack.

No, it was just a compatibility issue with the Soviet hardware the campaign is using.

In socialist Britain, service denies *you*!

[CumbrianLeftie]

Well, guilty as charged there. I'd point out that you and I are not on as different sides as you seem to think. We both want the same thing (a fairer society), I am just of the belief that Lexit is certain to cause, not prevent, Farage and Boris' free market dystopia. That's why I am so adamant.

I am also opposed to Brexit, voted remain in 2016 and would do so again.

That's not the Swinsonite mindset I referred to, however. 

[Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce]

A rather strange decision.

Not if you know what Farage wants.

[Walmart_shopper]

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

_{*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.}

It's certainly tightening up.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1194285159538970624

Okay so the first DDoS was the probe?

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1194285159538970624

Okay so the first DDoS was the probe?

Jezza: Keir, mate, WHAT IS THIS "WEBSITE NOT FOUND" MESSAGE? Is it the modem again? I just wanted to send an electronic mail to Evo.

Diane Abbot: RUSSIANS!!!

Jezza: SAY MORE.

[EastAnglianLefty]

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

_{*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.}

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

_{*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.}

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

At the national level, Survation knows what it is doing and YouGov does not.

[Silent Hunter]

They did last time. Not necessarily a guarantee that they do this time.

[Oryxslayer]

They did last time. Not necessarily a guarantee that they do this time.

Rule one of elections: Cherry Picking or throwing out polls means you are biased or an idiot, unless said polls were  commissioned by Mclaughlin. Instead you weight/average said polls and look at the overall trends, which right now all look like this, even though there is some MOE disagreement by a point or 2 depending on your weights.

[CumbrianLeftie]

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

_{*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.}

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

Though that is just one point up on their previous poll, and none at all before a methodology change (supposedly accounting for BxP not standing in Tory seats) is added. On that evidence, not exactly the turbo-boost to Johnson's campaign some pundits excitedly proclaimed.

[Silent Hunter]

For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.