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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 86215 times)
DaWN
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« Reply #200 on: November 02, 2019, 06:56:36 am »

There are no such thing as Brexit or Remain seats!

A Labour- Tory marginal seat in the Midlands that voted 52-48 leave is still a million times different to a 52-48 leave voting Lib-Tory marginal in the South West. Equally a 24 year old single mum who voted leave in the first seat is a lot different to a 57 year old professional who voted leave in the second seat.

Weíre talking about groups respectively of 17 and 16 million people; and any voter between the age of 18-21 couldnít vote in 2016 by my maths.

We know seats that Ďvoted leaveí can still easily vote for the Lib Demís- we already have examples of this when the Lib Demís won before- Carshalton, Westmoreland, Brecon and Radnorshire and Eastbourne to give four.

The Lib Demís even now are not just a stop Brexit Party; theyíre actually a cash rich, Uber local, and activist led party with a strong local base. They have a history of winning seats they shouldnít by getting local people to run on bin collections who win as a council, then run the council, then win the seat etc. They also have regions of historic strength that did well for them at the local elections.



Fairly sure Westmorland & Lonsdale voted Remain.

But otherwise yes, I mostly agree with this. Remain-Leave is going to be a divide in this election (and people who claim that its not going to be important and other issues will take over are kidding themselves) but it will be far from the only issue and the ones that have ruled British politics for decades are not going to magically disappear.

And by the way, even if it was, you guys understand there are Remain voters even in Leave seats right? So even if the Lib Dems were only improving among Remainers, their vote share would still go up in Brexity seats if it goes up nationwide by the amount currently predicted.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #201 on: November 02, 2019, 09:00:09 am »

Yes the importance of Scottish leave voters has been ignored; Iím sure Iím as guilty as most but thereís a trend to treat Scotland as one universal set of seats rather than the 4-5 different clusters you have

Any Scottish leave voter is simply an SNP voter. There is virtually zero leave-unionist piece of the electoral pie big enough to swing a seat.

errr, this is very wrong.  The chunk of the Scottish population that voted leave is probably likely to vote Tory more than the national average; the trends in the 2017 election in the North East indicates that: although some of that might just be areas of natural Tory strength returning home after spending 30 years with the SNP.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #202 on: November 02, 2019, 11:45:56 am »

  Do wwe have any polling evidence of what the 2nd choice of Brexit Party voters would be?  For that matter the 2nd choice of other party voters as well?
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #203 on: November 02, 2019, 11:48:31 am »

Any Scottish leave voter is simply an SNP voter.

Brexit Party got 15% of the Scottish vote in the European Parliament election.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #204 on: November 02, 2019, 12:04:50 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2019, 12:10:40 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

Not 100% sure about that.  For sure BXP running everywhere will eat into CON Brexi votes but could also eat into LAB Brext voters that otherwise would never vote CON anyway.  The main problem with a de facto CON-BXP alliance is that it will trigger an even greater defection rate of CON Remain vote as well as trigger LAB-LDEM-Green tactical voting in response.

The most recent Yougov poll on a cross section of 2017 and 2016 vote is fairly instructive:

Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

LEAVE voters only
Voting intention among CON+LEAVE voters
Con - 77%
Brexit Party - 19%

Voting intention among LAB+LEAVE voters
Labour - 43%
Brexit Party - 25%
Con - 19%



REMAIN voters only
Voting intention among CON+REMAIN voters
Con - 61%
Lib Dem - 31%

Voting intention among LAB+REMAIN voters
Labour - 58%
Lib Dem - 27%
Green - 9%



There are almost no CON REMAIN vote that will defect to LAB and all such defection will go to LDEM.
The some LAB LEAVE vote will defect to CON but an even larger chunk will go to BXP.  That is the bloc of LAB LEAVE voters that will most likely never vote CON anyway and BXP running will keep those votes away from LAB.  Of course there is a bloc of CON LEAVE voters that will go to BXP but like in 2015 CON can hope for tactical voting.

Even if we are to take the Yougov estimates as given, it's hard to see how the Brexit Party focusing on "Labour heartland" seats benefits them. Let's do a little exercise. Assume that all Tory voters and UKIP voters in 2017 backed Leave (dubious and favorable to Labour but more close to being accurate than not in "Labour heartland" seats), that all LibDem/Green voters backed Remain, and use this to estimate the Remain/Leave share of the Labour vote. We can then applying these vote share estimates. I simply add the old LibDem and UKIP vote shares to the YouGov-based vote transfers for LAB/COn.

Doing this in Redcar (~68% Leave):
Labour - 55.5% -> Labour Leave 30%, Labour Remain 25.6%
Conservative - 33.2% -> Tory Leave 33.2%
LibDem - 6.7%
UKIP - 4.6%

Vote Estimates with Brexit Party (no tactical squeeze, just YouGov):
Conservative 31.2%
Labour 27.7%
Brexit 18.3%
LibDem 13.6%

However, let's assume a tactical "squeeze" among Labour remain voters, giving Labour ~90% of these voters but no tactical squeeze to benefit Tories because Brexit resources ensure voter confusion:
Labour 35.9%
Conservative 31.2%
Brexit 18.4%
LibDem 8%

Now, all of this is very "problematic", resting on a bunch of absurd assumptions but the idea is to illustrate the problem of the Brexit Party strategy. Even in Leave-heavy Labour heartland seats, something like ~40% of Labour 2017 voters backed remain - vast majority will back Labour again, even if they are annoyed, because they'll be squeezed. However, intervention of Brexit Party makes the same "squeeze" strategy for the Tories difficult - it'll be unclear which party is best positioned to win.

Let's assume that there is an accidental squeeze to Brexit that's more concentrated among Labour leave voters than Tory voters (we give 35% among Labour Leavers, reducing Tory share to 9% with this group and 25% among Tory leavers and 75% to Tories), holding all else constant:
Labour 35.9%
Conservative 27.6%
Brexit 23.3%
LibDem 8%

Such an accidental squeeze is possible (perhaps likely and seeing as it as a squeeze may be a mistake when one remembers how many "Tory Leave" types in Redcar or Rother Valley are just UKIPers who loaned their vote to the Tories last time!) in many of these seas and notice what it does - it produces a much larger Labour majority! Perversely, insofar as Brexit Party wants to coordinate with the Tories, its best strategy might be to abolish itself. Insofar as it wants to be independent and does not care about the Tories, it should probably target as many marginal Labour/Tory seats, as "Labour heartland" seats!
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RGM2609
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« Reply #205 on: November 02, 2019, 12:31:43 pm »

How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?
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vileplume
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« Reply #206 on: November 02, 2019, 12:35:25 pm »

There are no such thing as Brexit or Remain seats!

A Labour- Tory marginal seat in the Midlands that voted 52-48 leave is still a million times different to a 52-48 leave voting Lib-Tory marginal in the South West. Equally a 24 year old single mum who voted leave in the first seat is a lot different to a 57 year old professional who voted leave in the second seat.

Weíre talking about groups respectively of 17 and 16 million people; and any voter between the age of 18-21 couldnít vote in 2016 by my maths.

We know seats that Ďvoted leaveí can still easily vote for the Lib Demís- we already have examples of this when the Lib Demís won before- Carshalton, Westmoreland, Brecon and Radnorshire and Eastbourne to give four.

The Lib Demís even now are not just a stop Brexit Party; theyíre actually a cash rich, Uber local, and activist led party with a strong local base. They have a history of winning seats they shouldnít by getting local people to run on bin collections who win as a council, then run the council, then win the seat etc. They also have regions of historic strength that did well for them at the local elections.



Fairly sure Westmorland & Lonsdale voted Remain.

But otherwise yes, I mostly agree with this. Remain-Leave is going to be a divide in this election (and people who claim that its not going to be important and other issues will take over are kidding themselves) but it will be far from the only issue and the ones that have ruled British politics for decades are not going to magically disappear.

And by the way, even if it was, you guys understand there are Remain voters even in Leave seats right? So even if the Lib Dems were only improving among Remainers, their vote share would still go up in Brexity seats if it goes up nationwide by the amount currently predicted.

Well in a seat like North Norfolk the Lib Dem share in 2017 is extremely artificially high. If Lamb had stepped down in 2015 the Tories would've won it easily and it would've had a further swing towards them in 2017 to the extent that it would now look like a safe Tory seat with the Lib Dems a long way behind. Thus given the nature of this election I reckon North Norfolk is a likely Tory gain.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #207 on: November 02, 2019, 12:44:01 pm »

How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?

One or two at most.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #208 on: November 02, 2019, 01:03:39 pm »

How many seats is the Brexit Party likely to win?

They aren't "likely" to win any, and have non-negligible chances in maybe half a dozen.
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vileplume
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« Reply #209 on: November 02, 2019, 02:08:16 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2019, 02:18:04 pm by vileplume »


Fairly sure Westmorland & Lonsdale voted Remain.


Comfortably at that. South Lakeland council (of which Westmoreland and Lonsdale is the vast majority) was 53% Remain. On top of that the bit of South Lakeland not in the Westmoreland and Lonsdale constituency, principally the town of Ulverston, would've been solidly Leave. This would mean the Remain vote in Westmoreland and Lonsdale was approximately 54%-55%.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #210 on: November 02, 2019, 02:22:44 pm »

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2
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afleitch
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« Reply #211 on: November 02, 2019, 03:36:50 pm »

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

It's giving some indication that the Tories are polling back at 2010-2017 levels which has given us two hung parliaments and one slender majority. In some polls they are drifting back to their 2017-early 2019 average. Labour are obviously not and Brexit are clearly still a presence even with the Tory drift upwards. The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens which is not great going into the two party echo chamber.

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DaWN
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« Reply #212 on: November 02, 2019, 03:49:19 pm »

The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens

This was always going to happen. I knew not to underestimate the probability of the "Corbyn may be an incompetent foolish Hard-Brexiteering fool with no real solutions apart from regressive 70s socialism and who is at best apathetic about antisemitism BUT I DON'T WANT TO LET THE TORIES IN" voters going back to the fold quickly and polling seems to show that has happened. However, the Lib Dems will still make significant gains at 16-19% of the vote (that's basically triple what they got last time) and the real (and achievable) goal is to maintain that level into the election.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #213 on: November 02, 2019, 04:26:59 pm »
« Edited: November 02, 2019, 04:43:47 pm by TheDeadFlagBlues »

It's important for everyone to be aware that, per some unfathomable tradition, polling firms in the UK do not report toplines with undecided voters, as they do in the US. This creates the impression of the Tories having a substantial lead when, in fact, they do not.

As an example, on October 25th, Opinium released a poll showing: Con 40%, Labour 24%, LibDem 15%, Brexit 10%. With "Don't Knows" included, we have: Con 31%, Labour 21%, Don't Know 16% LibDem 12%, Brexit 9%.

Here are the share of "Don't Knows" by 2017/2016 voting history:
Conservative Remainers - Don't Know 22%
Conservative Leavers - Don't Know 9%
Labour Remainers - Don't Know 14%
Labour Leavers - Don't Know 18%

Backing this out, the Don't Knows in this opinion poll voted the following way in 2017 and 2016:
EU Party Referendum Groups - Labour Remain 32%, Conservative Remain 25%, Conservative Leave 24%, Labour Leave 19%
2017 GE - Labour 49%, Conservative 43%, LibDem 4%
2016 EU Referendum - Remain 53%, Leave 47% (Remain 42%, Leave 38%, Didn't Vote 19%)
Remain voters by party - Labour 53%, Conservative 41%
Leave voters by party - Conservative 53%, Labour 43%

Here's what the "Don't Knows" think about the leaders:
Preferred Prime Minister - None/Don't Know 65%, Boris Johnson 31%, Corbyn 3%,
Boris Johnson (excluding people without a view) - Disapprove 61%, Approve 39%
Jeremy Corbyn - Approve 25%, Disapprove 75%
Jo Swinson - Approve 42%, Disapprove 58%

Is performing this sort of analysis on the disgusting entrails of a polling sausage a bit misguided? Sure but I hope it's a reminder of certain facts: polls can whiff in dramatic ways when "undecided" voters are left unreported, there are many undecided voters and those undecided voters have a clear lean. If I had to guess, the undecided voters will gravitate towards Labour/LibDems throughout the campaign.
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Vosem
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« Reply #214 on: November 02, 2019, 04:39:50 pm »

There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that constituency polling will be any better than it was in 2015, is there? I followed it quite closely that time and was badly burned.
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DaWN
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« Reply #215 on: November 02, 2019, 04:42:00 pm »

There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that constituency polling will be any better than it was in 2015, is there? I followed it quite closely that time and was badly burned.

Constituency polling is always terrible and nobody should be taking it seriously. Unfortunately, people will but that's par for the course.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #216 on: November 02, 2019, 05:02:44 pm »

  US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #217 on: November 02, 2019, 05:15:47 pm »

The polls with low labour levels have had a stupidly high Green vote (at 5-7%) and a high Lib Dem vote.

  US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.

I donít think itís that easy...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #218 on: November 02, 2019, 05:34:52 pm »

The polls with low labour levels have had a stupidly high Green vote (at 5-7%) and a high Lib Dem vote.

 US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.

I donít think itís that easy...

Well, one has to hope that if you are exerting the effort to get a representative poll with a respectable sample from a small population, you are also willing to exert the effort so that your data can stand scrutiny. That's arguably why the nyt had their polls run live rather than be conducted all in-house and secret.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #219 on: November 02, 2019, 05:39:56 pm »

It's important for everyone to be aware that, per some unfathomable tradition, polling firms in the UK do not report toplines with undecided voters, as they do in the US.

Because "Don't know" is not an option on the ballot paper on election day.
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Vosem
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« Reply #220 on: November 02, 2019, 05:47:11 pm »

US House seats are like 10 times the size (typical population of like 700,000 people) of a UK Parliament constituency (typical population of like 70,000 people). They are correspondingly much easier to poll.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #221 on: November 02, 2019, 06:44:51 pm »

It's important for everyone to be aware that, per some unfathomable tradition, polling firms in the UK do not report toplines with undecided voters, as they do in the US.

Because "Don't know" is not an option on the ballot paper on election day.

Neither is "undecided" but it's typical for American pollsters to report this information because it gives a sense of the actual size of a lead. We all should have known that Hillary Clinton's lead was tenuous in 2016 because there are more undecideds and third party voters than usual. If you simply removed undecideds, she would have had an even larger lead in polls!
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Kyng
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« Reply #222 on: November 02, 2019, 07:29:48 pm »

The Lib Dems seem to be slipping back down to the mid teens

This was always going to happen. I knew not to underestimate the probability of the "Corbyn may be an incompetent foolish Hard-Brexiteering fool with no real solutions apart from regressive 70s socialism and who is at best apathetic about antisemitism BUT I DON'T WANT TO LET THE TORIES IN" voters going back to the fold quickly and polling seems to show that has happened. However, the Lib Dems will still make significant gains at 16-19% of the vote (that's basically triple what they got last time) and the real (and achievable) goal is to maintain that level into the election.

Yeah, it's depressing, but not in the least bit surprising. I guess that's what happens when you have a broken political system that strongly encourages two major parties, at the expense of everybody else.

Like in 2017, I'm probably going to end up voting Lib Dem, not because I like them very much (I don't really like any of the main parties), but because I hate two-party politics more than I hate any specific one of those parties.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #223 on: November 02, 2019, 07:47:08 pm »

More polls, and I'm sure they will bring clarit... oh...

Opinium: Con 42, Lab 26, LDem 16, Brexit 9, SNP 4, Greens 2, Others 2
ORB: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 14, Brexit 12 (no further details)

Also, there was a Panelbase yesterday - was it reported here? Can't recall. If not...

Panelbase: Con 40, Lab 29, LDem 14, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

There's more, because, you know, the Sunday papers...

Deltapoll: Con 40, Lab 28, LDem 14, BP 11, SNP 3, Greens 2, Others 2
YouGov: Con 39, Lab 27, LDem 16, BP 7, Others ?
ComRes: Con 36, Lab 28, LDem 17, BP 10, SNP 4, Greens 3, Others 1
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jfern
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« Reply #224 on: November 02, 2019, 11:35:18 pm »

  US house race polling seemed to be pretty good last few cycles, maybe UK pollsters could learn from accross the Atlantic.

It's easier to poll 2 way races.
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