United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Hnv1]

If the Conservatives get a substantial majority, they will almost certainly repeal the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.

good. It's foreign to the Westminster system and it's common law. And 2/3 of the house is a high bar, the house should be sovereign to dissolve with a simple majority

[Gary J]

Another part of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, that needs further thought, is the provision about motions of no confidence. I would suggest adopting the idea that a motion of no confidence must specify the member of the House of Commons who would replace the existing Prime Minister if the motion is carried. I would also clarify who can move a motion of no confidence and when. It seems absurd that the government itself should control when it can be challenged and usually give time only to the votes moved by the Leader of the Opposition, even if some other member might have a reasonable chance of winning a majority.

I would also include a provision that certain votes, such as that in response to the Queen's speech or on the budget must be votes of no confidence, so they pass unless the House votes for another member to be named as Prime Minister.

The parties, interested members of the public and academic experts should probably be encouraged to gameplay the proposed rules before they are adopted into law to see if anyone can come up with unintended consequences or ways where the rules might break down in a time of crisis.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?

[Serenity Now]

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?

It probably has the most *potential* for them outside of Brighton Pavilion given the 2015 result. Norwich South would also be a contender. However, their best bet would really need to be somewhere where parties other than the incumbent have some strength too. Back in 2010 this was the case in Brighton Pavilion but is not the case right now for either Bristol West or Norwich South.

When it comes to Bristol West I think that the 2015 result for Labour (35.7%) was probably their 'floor' and the 2017 result (65.9%) their 'ceiling' for now, so i don't see the seat changing hands even in what is likely to be one crazy-ass election nationally.

[306]

How likely is it for the Greens to have 2 seats or more following this election?

Highly unlikely.

If the greens get a deal with Libs, Lab, or  both to stand aside  in some of the areas their strong in, or be the de facto remain choice on the ballot then they could easily get as many seats where the above holds true. But barring that, it's an unlikely prospect.

There are I believe zero seats that are Conservative-held where the Greens are in second place, though, so there's nowhere really where the Greens could really get a free run. Maybe the LDs will stand aside for them on the Isle of Wight, probably the Greens' best chance at a gain from the Conservatives, but they're still fighting from third place, and in a Leave seat.

Wouldn't Bristol West be a better target for the Greens?

Bristol West is held by Labour; Isle of Wight is their top target held by the Conservatives. Labour-held seats are very unlikely to be relevant to a ”Remain Alliance”, and in any event I have a tough time seeing the Greens peeling off a lot of votes from Corbyn Labour other than strategic votes.

[Helsinkian]

Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

[CumbrianLeftie]

Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

They almost certainly won't do that, but this scotches the idea they were going to contest a few dozen Labour seats only (though that "rumour" emerged from Seb Payne, the biggest Tory shill at the FT, so was never reliable)

[jaichind]

Nigel Farage throwing a lifeline to the remainers by announcing that they are going to stand in all constituencies.

Not 100% sure about that.  For sure BXP running everywhere will eat into CON Brexi votes but could also eat into LAB Brext voters that otherwise would never vote CON anyway.  The main problem with a de facto CON-BXP alliance is that it will trigger an even greater defection rate of CON Remain vote as well as trigger LAB-LDEM-Green tactical voting in response.

The most recent Yougov poll on a cross section of 2017 and 2016 vote is fairly instructive:

Voting intention among 2016 REMAIN voters
Lib Dem - 34%
Labour - 33%
Con - 16%
Green - 9%

Voting intention among 2016 LEAVE voters
Con - 58%
Brexit Party - 24%
Labour - 10%

LEAVE voters only
Voting intention among CON+LEAVE voters
Con - 77%
Brexit Party - 19%

Voting intention among LAB+LEAVE voters
Labour - 43%
Brexit Party - 25%
Con - 19%



REMAIN voters only
Voting intention among CON+REMAIN voters
Con - 61%
Lib Dem - 31%

Voting intention among LAB+REMAIN voters
Labour - 58%
Lib Dem - 27%
Green - 9%



There are almost no CON REMAIN vote that will defect to LAB and all such defection will go to LDEM.
The some LAB LEAVE vote will defect to CON but an even larger chunk will go to BXP.  That is the bloc of LAB LEAVE voters that will most likely never vote CON anyway and BXP running will keep those votes away from LAB.  Of course there is a bloc of CON LEAVE voters that will go to BXP but like in 2015 CON can hope for tactical voting.

[Keep Calm and ...]

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1189942220482367489

Edit:
    Worth noting about this poll:

    > Greens are not prompted.
    > 50% of the sample DO see the Brexit Party prompted, 50% do not. https://t.co/64ns9IQQSf
    — Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 31, 2019

[c r a b c a k e]

Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eh, I think you've maybe been reading too many newspapers. The Tories only managed to poll 26% in the Rotherham constituency (for example) in 2017, a number smaller than the Labour majority there and a full seventeen percentage points lower than their national score.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding the Brexit Party presumably running everywhere it can: though the exact effects are hard to predict with much certainty (like every other detail of this election, actually), it certainly isn't good news for a Conservative strategy that aims to repeat what they tried last time. At least so long as the Brexit Party is able to maintain some sort of polling viability. People do need to remember that most people do not have firm partisan attachments these days, even if they have views and preferences...

[c r a b c a k e]

Eh, I think you've maybe been reading too many newspapers. The Tories only managed to poll 26% in the Rotherham constituency (for example) in 2017, a number smaller than the Labour majority there and a full seventeen percentage points lower than their national score.

yeah, but if it does happen I can bump that post without context and claim I'm a genius

[DaWN]

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

Brake and Lloyd (if he counts) are definitely more likely to lose than Swinson. Probably Farron as well. I think people are overestimating how vulnerable she is.

[c r a b c a k e]

Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

[cp]

Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.

I'd also add Dominic Raab to your list of potential big name Tory losers. His constituency, Esher & Walton, voted heavily for remain, the Lib Dems did really well in the local elections in May, and their candidate has managed to convince the central party to make E&W a target seat. It's more of a long shot than Uxbridge or IDS's seat, but if the Tories are having a bad night then it could be the evening's Portillo moment (assuming Johnson doesn't lose as well).

[DaWN]

Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

I'm not saying Brake is particularly vulnerable (he isn't), just that he's more likely to lose than Swinson.

[Laki]

The only thing I hope is that we don't return to Blairism or that Lib Dems do well. Hopefully it's a SNP + Labour victory. Tories winning is okay to me as well.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's some potential high profile incumbent shock defeats (note: not a prediction)

Conservative

Boris himself - Uxbridge isn't out of the realm of possibility and it isn't too dissimilar to middle-class seats that have swung away from Tories elsewhere.

Zac Goldsmith - tbh unless it's a dismal night for the Lib Dems, he's probably going down

Iain Duncan Smith - another London seat, and one Labour basically has to win to call it a remotely good night (and they could even win it on a pretty lousy score as well.

Jacob Rees Mogg - bit more remote, and could probably suffer from divided opposition given the old Labourist tradition around the Somerset coalfields and the Lib Dem renewed strength in the West Country. Still, Lib Dems won Bath and NE Somerset last locals, even excluding Bath constituency.

Steve Baker - another Hard Brexiter sitting in the not hugely Brexit friendly commuter town of Wycombe

Labour

Not sure how many likely Lab>Lib pick-ups there will be (it says something about how badly that faction of swing voters took the clegg years that there is only dead certain Lib Dem pick-up, and that's the seat of the soon to be missed Mr O'Mara). Maybe if Labour do catasrophically with Remain voters you could see them come back from the dead in places like Emily Thornberry's Islington and Finsbury seat.

Much more potential Labour weaknesses to Tories though, obviously: Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, Sarah Champion, Dennis Skinner, Caroline Flint and so on. In the event of Boris getting the much vaunted 100 seat super majority expect all sorts of people up in the hinterlands of Leeds, Sheffield, Birmingham etc to fall.

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

SNP

Likewise, the SNP are doing so well at the moment the only potential for a fall is probably their own Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, who the Lib Dems are definitely gunning for after his pretty gross campaign against Charles Kennedy (there's also the Western Islands, but Christ knows what goes on politically there). As the SNP drifts into becoming an urban party, I expect the Liberal tradition to reassert itself in the region.

I'd also add Dominic Raab to your list of potential big name Tory losers. His constituency, Esher & Walton, voted heavily for remain, the Lib Dems did really well in the local elections in May, and their candidate has managed to convince the central party to make E&W a target seat. It's more of a long shot than Uxbridge or IDS's seat, but if the Tories are having a bad night then it could be the evening's Portillo moment (assuming Johnson doesn't lose as well).

E&W definitely needs to be on the list. That entire slice of London from the city & Westminster to already LD Twickenham should be going Orange, and E&W is just a greater extension of the slice. Especially since all their Tory rebel flips are fleeing here to stand on the LD ticket. In fact, it reminds me a lot of the wealthy mansion strips in Houston and Dallas that now are represented by Dems.  I mean yeah, Raab has a large majority, but how the Lib Dems work is they either get ziltch or a reasonable percentage depending on if they are seriously targeting the seat. Their voter base is more white collar, more educated, and older then the electorate, so on average your LD voter is going to be more in tune with electoral information. If the LDs lack serious opportunity in a seat, their voters scatter to the big two depending on personal views. It's why they regularly underperform FPTP polls.

Now while many names on the list I could see losing their seats even on good night's for the party, Boris requires the Tories to have a known loss incoming. In part this is because he sits on a healthy leave base in addition to the Tory base, aplifying the headwinds. The main problem though will be inflexible remainers: this is London and this is Boris, so you know there will be a bunch of radicals who share the stage with him like Buckethead did with May. LDs will also want a good showing here to stick it to the Man, as it were.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be amusing if Raab lost, but I would caution that he polled 59% two years ago. And for obvious reasons if one was still voting Conservative in 2017, one was not #fbpe. Of course as recently as 2005 the LibDems managed to poll a shade under 30% there (still not enough to come close: 16pts behind) which is, sure, an indicator of potential of a sort, but...

[Pericles]

The only thing I hope is that we don't return to Blairism or that Lib Dems do well. Hopefully it's a SNP + Labour victory. Tories winning is okay to me as well.

That first sentence doesn't really fit together logically.

[306]

Lib Dems

aside from the likes of Ummuna and Gyimah, who don't count, the only vulnerable Lib Dem MP is probably their own leader, given Scotland's unpredictability.

Brake and Lloyd (if he counts) are definitely more likely to lose than Swinson. Probably Farron as well. I think people are overestimating how vulnerable she is.

Way overestimating. East Dumbartonshire one of the most strongly anti-independence areas in Scotland outside of the borders and the islands, and the SNP is not going to sop up Remain votes in the LD-held seats. Swinson is very safe.

[cp]

It would be amusing if Raab lost, but I would caution that he polled 59% two years ago. And for obvious reasons if one was still voting Conservative in 2017, one was not #fbpe. Of course as recently as 2005 the LibDems managed to poll a shade under 30% there (still not enough to come close: 16pts behind) which is, sure, an indicator of potential of a sort, but...

E&W has an odd profile in some ways. The Tories win by a clear margin, but not by the landslide margins you get in more rural seats (or northern Labour ones). The Lab/Lib totals are pretty even around 20% apiece, with some variation factored in due to national swings. This is because the constituency includes loads of leafy Surrey surburbs (McMansions, really) alongside small but dense pockets of social housing and new builds in places like Walton. Give it another 10 years and it'll be like the Essex London suburbs that used to be super conservative but are now full of 'young professionals' that can't stand the Tories.

A non-Tory win in E&W isn't exactly a long shot, but it requires two things to happen independently: Raab needs to get super cocky and not put any effort into campaigning, AND one of the parties (*ahem* Labour) needs to tactically throw its voters toward the other party.

[Lord Halifax]

We have had the first national polls since the election was called.

Survation: Con 34, Lab 26, LDem 19, BP 12, Greens 1, Others 4
YouGov: Con 36, Lab 21, LDem 18, BP 13, Greens 6, SNP 4, Others 1

The former would be a swing of 3.0 and the latter a swing of 6.5. Under our stupid electoral system, these would produce very different results.

Also published is the first Ipsos-MORI poll for a while, though it was conducted over the weekend, and so before the election was called. Included for completeness:

Ipsos-MORI: Con 41, Lab 24, LDem 20, BP 7, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 2

Are there any methodological differences that can explain why the Green score varies so much?

Maybe this explains the differences:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1189942220482367489

The tweet's gone. What did it say?

[CumbrianLeftie]

Brake? Long-time Lib Dem MP who survived both 2015 and 2017 in an seat that only narrowly voted for Brexit who seems relatively untouched by scandal to my knowledge?

Fair enough about Farron though.

Dunno about Farron either - he has been working his constituency *hard* since the 2017 scare.