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News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 94145 times)
urutzizu
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« Reply #950 on: November 27, 2019, 01:07:47 PM »

No comment.




https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/2019/11/lo-fi-boriswave-why-are-conservatives-posting-71-minute-hypnotic-videos-youtube

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afleitch
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« Reply #951 on: November 27, 2019, 02:55:21 PM »

Turns out that the BBC have yet to schedule a feature-length Neil interview with Johnson. It appears that everyone else signed up and were allotted slots on the assumption that everyone was one board. I don't like Corbyn and I don't like feeling bad for him,* but this is really serious, a potential breach of the BBC's commitment to balance and political impartiality. Negotiations are supposedly ongoing, but that is just not good enough: they now have to set a date and empty-chair Johnson if he doesn't show up. This is very disturbing.

*I also think Neil's style of interview does not do our democracy any favours.

I agree that Andrew Neil trashing each leader in turn does no favours for democracy or journalism, but Sturgeon and Corbyn have did their turn, taken the heat including setting up narratives for the press and now it appears Boris and Swinson might not do it. As you say, that's going to have big consequences for the BBC if they hadn't actually got agreement for all four.

It's all very helpful for the new ONLINE tranche of Boris supporters who probably will love the fact he's dodged a bullet and 'bested' the BBC.
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Gary J
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« Reply #952 on: November 27, 2019, 03:17:03 PM »



Fascinating thread on Tory prospects in the Home Counties. I'm not sure I think there's any prospects for more than one or two seat flips, but it certainly backs up what cp has been saying about his own seat on this forum. Perhaps we're in for an election where the Tories win a bunch of Labour heartlands in the North but lose Esher? Probably not, but interesting nonetheless.

Heres my list of Realistically Possible (aka anything less than 99% chance of Con victory) Tory losses in the SW right now:

Wokingham, Reading West, Guildford, E&W, Wycombe, and Isle of Wight, Lewes, Hastings & Rye, Southampton Itchen, Winchester, Crawley, Spelthorne, Witney, Wantage, and the Milton Keynes.

That isn't much in one of the largest 'regions' of the UK. The problem for the opposition is that the Tories have large majorities, and if the Lib-Dems don't pour resources into every seat they will not see voters get activated. The majorities needed to be seriously reduced in a previous election, or the Lib-Dems needed to catch fire and be able to run a national not a targeted campaign. At the start of this campaign there was a serious chance of the SW holding a bunch of Tory loses, (I once mentioned the data was there for May to have a portillo moment if invested against) but the parties don't seem to want to serious campaign for Tory Remainers in the SW, outside of targeted strongholds.

You are not writing about the SW of England, but the SE. I am familiar with Spelthorne. I was the first Chair of the Spelthorne Liberal Democrats, after the present party was created in 1988. I still live in the neighbouring constituency of Slough.

The Conservative Party might have lost Spelthorne to the Brexit Party although probably not. Once the Brexit Party decided not to contest the seat, it became very safe for Kwasi Kwarteng to be re-elected. In my view neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats are remotely well placed to win the parliamentary seat.


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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #953 on: November 27, 2019, 03:21:49 PM »

Turns out that the BBC have yet to schedule a feature-length Neil interview with Johnson. It appears that everyone else signed up and were allotted slots on the assumption that everyone was one board. I don't like Corbyn and I don't like feeling bad for him,* but this is really serious, a potential breach of the BBC's commitment to balance and political impartiality. Negotiations are supposedly ongoing, but that is just not good enough: they now have to set a date and empty-chair Johnson if he doesn't show up. This is very disturbing.

*I also think Neil's style of interview does not do our democracy any favours.

I agree that Andrew Neil trashing each leader in turn does no favours for democracy or journalism, but Sturgeon and Corbyn have did their turn, taken the heat including setting up narratives for the press and now it appears Boris and Swinson might not do it. As you say, that's going to have big consequences for the BBC if they hadn't actually got agreement for all four.

It's all very helpful for the new ONLINE tranche of Boris supporters who probably will love the fact he's dodged a bullet and 'bested' the BBC.

I mean, it didn't have to be be Boris. If any leader hadn't signed up to an interview ahead of time and watched Neil destroy everyone  in front of him, you would be running for the hills. The loss is inevitable, you would want to minimize it if possible. This is one of the very few times where pulling out is the  smart play, it's less cowardice rather than self-preservation. I'm sure the BBC can find something that isn't nice for BoJo or Swinson to fill their timeslots if they duck.
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DaWN
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« Reply #954 on: November 27, 2019, 03:42:08 PM »

So this YouGov model is being released in 80 minutes or so... given we've seen the Best For Britain model as well today which, to put it politely, is a complete crock of sh!t, is there much we should be looking at with this? It'll obviously be better than that and it was relatively accurate last time iirc, but I'm not sure anyone should be drawing the conclusions from it that they inevitably will.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #955 on: November 27, 2019, 03:58:24 PM »

So this YouGov model is being released in 80 minutes or so... given we've seen the Best For Britain model as well today which, to put it politely, is a complete crock of sh!t, is there much we should be looking at with this? It'll obviously be better than that and it was relatively accurate last time iirc, but I'm not sure anyone should be drawing the conclusions from it that they inevitably will.

My post last page was literally about what conclusions can be drawn. The thing about MRP models is that they are far easier to screw up than regular polls, because a bad weight on one group can upset everything. Therefore, we should probably only trust (somewhat) the initial MRP poll and give all these  new models that are try out the hot new thing appropriate skepticism.
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Serenity Now
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« Reply #956 on: November 27, 2019, 04:23:44 PM »

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/why-you-should-take-yougovs-mrp-pinch-salt

Quote
So all in all, while tonight’s MRP might be right, it might not be: and even if it is right, its very existence might change the results.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #957 on: November 27, 2019, 04:28:51 PM »

Another ComRes: Con 41, Lab 34, LDem 13, BP 5, Others 7

Fieldwork 25th and 26th.
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Pericles
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« Reply #958 on: November 27, 2019, 04:34:32 PM »

Another ComRes: Con 41, Lab 34, LDem 13, BP 5, Others 7

Fieldwork 25th and 26th.

What is the trend in that poll?
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DaWN
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« Reply #959 on: November 27, 2019, 04:36:08 PM »

Another ComRes: Con 41, Lab 34, LDem 13, BP 5, Others 7

Fieldwork 25th and 26th.

What is the trend in that poll?

CON -1
LAB +2
LD +1
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DaWN
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« Reply #960 on: November 27, 2019, 05:05:07 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #961 on: November 27, 2019, 05:07:06 PM »

Remember what I said about the Scottish seats and Third parties  people. -_- However, that Blue-Red number is believable and likely.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #962 on: November 27, 2019, 05:09:00 PM »

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/ official site.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #963 on: November 27, 2019, 05:17:34 PM »

If Boris does not agree to Neil interview, I would vote Brexit no matter where I lived.
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afleitch
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« Reply #964 on: November 27, 2019, 05:27:03 PM »

YouGov data in a fun spreadsheet:

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=69D0560CC54123FE!1334&authkey=!AHUShvooX0LbK6c
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #965 on: November 27, 2019, 05:30:27 PM »


I'm just going to point out that the 'Red Right Hand' has not been used officially to represent Northern Ireland since 1973 outside of a very few contexts. It's very much a Unionist symbol.

43% would be the same as May got in 2017.

Also, remember a little thing called margin of error. The 95% confidence values give the Conservatives a minimum of 328 and a maximum of 385...

Also, it's predicting Labour lose Bolsover:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
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DaWN
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« Reply #966 on: November 27, 2019, 05:46:21 PM »

On closer inspection it is indeed bullsh!t, but still very potentially damaging bullsh!t. The Lib Dems need to draw up a strategy to deal with the fallout from this because its something a lot of non-political people will see. There's now a public document that makes the party look irrelevant. 20 seats is looking further and further away.

Depressing stuff. Think I'll just give up on British politics after this election. Zero interest in following the Boris & Corbyn Show.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #967 on: November 27, 2019, 05:50:15 PM »

Swinson is as charismatic as my mom.

That's a horrible thing to say about the person who gave you life.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #968 on: November 27, 2019, 05:56:37 PM »
« Edited: November 27, 2019, 06:02:12 PM by Mangez des pommes ! »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms). I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #969 on: November 27, 2019, 05:58:50 PM »







Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.
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cp
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« Reply #970 on: November 27, 2019, 05:59:46 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.


Just so we're all clear, this is a forecast for an election two weeks away based on a poll that's nearly a week old using a model that specifically doesn't account for local campaigns. I'm not saying it's worthless, but it is hardly conclusive.
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DaWN
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« Reply #971 on: November 27, 2019, 06:01:34 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

I'm not going to engage in a big argument over this again as neither of us are going to change our minds, but I really need to make it clear that I don't care whether we get Boris's Hard Brexit or Corbyn's Hard Brexit. They're exactly the same on the only issue that really matters and I don't care which of them wins. Telling me I shouldn't think this way is not going to make me feel any better about the direction of my country so if I can ask politely for everyone to not do it that would be great.
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Lumine
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« Reply #972 on: November 27, 2019, 06:07:25 PM »

Ouch. I do feel sorry for the Lib Dem staffers who will have to work extra hard on those "x party can't win here!" bar charts.
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vileplume
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« Reply #973 on: November 27, 2019, 06:11:11 PM »







Easily visible Map format. Remember that third parties and tactical voters like the Unionists or Lib-Dems got underpolled last time.

Great maps thanks! Just to let you know Brecon & Radnorshire should be Tory, the Lib Dems are quite a way behind in this model.
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marty
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« Reply #974 on: November 27, 2019, 06:13:21 PM »

What is that one area on the southeast tip of England that is labour?
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