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March 02, 2021, 10:02:13 PM

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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 95647 times)
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« Reply #850 on: November 23, 2019, 08:54:19 PM »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
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« Reply #851 on: November 23, 2019, 10:50:50 PM »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?
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morgieb
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« Reply #852 on: November 23, 2019, 11:56:41 PM »

I have wonder what kind of result would force Swinson into resigning. Would she be able to stay on if the party barely makes any gains - or even loses seats -? Are we looking at Tim Farron 2: Electric Boogaloo?
If the result remains fairly static from 2017? Then she probably goes. But she is getting a 8% swing or so, which isn't insubstantial.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #853 on: November 24, 2019, 12:09:23 AM »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?

Depends on if an increase in turnout disproportionately effects young voters or not. If it does, then most pollsters likely wont be able to see it and will severely overestimate the Tories(this was a problem in 2017).
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Pericles
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« Reply #854 on: November 24, 2019, 12:55:07 AM »

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1198360854959403010

Looks like turnout will be high this election as people consider it important.
Surely this bodes better for Labour then it does for the Tories?

Perhaps, the EU referendum was the highest turnout vote in decades and like 6% higher turnout than the 2015 election, but that didn't mean Remain did well. On the other hand, the 2017 election was also high turnout by UK standards, and also higher turnout from 2015 and Labour did better than 2015.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #855 on: November 24, 2019, 03:52:52 AM »

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.


If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.
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afleitch
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« Reply #856 on: November 24, 2019, 04:19:17 AM »

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.


If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.

It's the best result with Panelbase for the SNP in two tears. Tories are back up to 2017 levels in line with the country. A result like that could still see the Tories almost wiped out ot even make gains; it'll depend on local swings.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #857 on: November 24, 2019, 04:28:18 AM »

What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?
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Pericles
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« Reply #858 on: November 24, 2019, 04:45:14 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 04:50:16 AM by Pericles »

Also remember the LibDems ended this parliament with 20 MPs and brought on this election to try and get more MPs, it would be ironic if (as seems pretty likely) they end up with less MPs than they went in with.

This, plus Jo Swinson running a leader focused campaign despite being unappealing to the public and not suitable for such a campaign (and ends up dropping in the polls in that campaign) could mean Swinson ends up being the Theresa May of the 2019 election.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #859 on: November 24, 2019, 05:54:14 AM »

My main concern about this latest batch of polls are that the CON+BXP vote share seems to be dropping from something like 48% to something like 46%.  Any CON gains are mostly from gains from BXP due to real shifts in support or methodological changes to take into account that BXP will only be running in half the seats.  At this stage CON gains are maxed out vis-a-vis BXP and any more gains will have to be from LAB or LIB.  But the recent trends seems to be the other direction.

Because it isn't true that every Brexit vote is a Tory vote. It isn't a one-to-one correspondence and Labour will net a small number of Brexit Party voters if and when they come home.

It seems pretty obvious that Labour will almost inevitably spend the next few weeks eating into the Tory polling lead. The question is whether it's a small bite or a Milliband bacon-bite.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #860 on: November 24, 2019, 05:55:29 AM »

What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?

The same person who has "turned her back on Labour" on at least four occasions now? And cites AS (of course) but wouldn't vote for the party when it had a Jewish leader??
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #861 on: November 24, 2019, 06:45:55 AM »

Ed Miliband was actually pretty friendly to the Palestinian cause - recognition of the State of Palestine was on the Labour manifesto in 2015.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #862 on: November 24, 2019, 08:49:33 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 09:38:10 AM by Arkansas Yankee »

We are 18 days from the election.   In 2017 Labour average in the polls was averaging around 33.  It is now 29 now.  When is it going to reach 33?
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #863 on: November 24, 2019, 09:12:51 AM »

Take out the fraudulent Opinium poll, and this weekend's surveys are very similar to the same point in 2017. Which does not mean history is bound to repeat itself, but maybe worth bearing in mind.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #864 on: November 24, 2019, 09:38:34 AM »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 09:45:10 AM by Arkansas Yankee »

Take out the fraudulent Opinium poll, and this weekend's surveys are very similar to the same point in 2017. Which does not mean history is bound to repeat itself, but maybe worth bearing in mind.

In 2017 I pointed out by this weekend Labour was averaging around 33.  Even excluding the Opinium poll this year it is averaging only around 30.   When is it going to reach 33 this year?
It has to make such a move sometime.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #865 on: November 24, 2019, 09:44:03 AM »

Every election is different, but 2017 comparisons are often being distorted by false memory. A lot of people seem to recall that as an election in which the government started far, far ahead and in which its lead cracked and shrunk due to a sustained Labour surge that, bit by bit, took things to just below the wire on polling day. This is not what happened. What actually happened, is that both parties made substantial gains during the early weeks of the campaign as the third parties collapsed, but the Conservative lead remained stubbornly very high. Then, the Conservative manifesto was unveiled and it was a total disaster. Their lead immediately slumped, more than halving almost overnight in many polls. After that, things bounced around a bit during the last few weeks - there was some distinct movement towards Labour picked up after Corbyn's unexpectedly strong response to the terrorist atrocities, for instance, but that didn't all seem to last - and by polling day the general consensus was of a solid but not massive Conservative lead, with more firms giving them leads over 10pts than suggesting that it might be fairly close. This is why the exit poll was such a great shock to everyone.

The curious part is that we still don't know why the polls were so badly wrong in the end. We know what went wrong in 2015: a very tight race was expected, and so the firms all herded, afraid to put out anything that did not fit with that. But 2017 is a mystery: it is not as simple as 'higher than expected youth turnout' even if that must have been a factor. Conclusions to this? None, exactly. Other than to caution against drawing any conclusions from false memory.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #866 on: November 24, 2019, 09:48:22 AM »

Indeed. I distinctly remember walking on the concourse of London Waterloo station on Election Day thinking that the realistic range of possibilities ran from a 100+ majority to a Conservative minority government and thinking a majority of 50 or so was the likely outcome.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #867 on: November 24, 2019, 10:30:58 AM »

According to the New Statesman, the Tories are on course for a 48 seat majority according to Datapraxis.  Paul Hilder is CEO of Datapraxis.  He was a candidate for General Secretary of Labour under Corbyn. The article says a similar analysis predicted the hung Parliament in 2017.

This analysis also points out Zac Goldsmith is set to lose his seat, and that even Johnson, Dominic Raab, Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood, ERG chief Steve Smith could lose their seats to tactical voting.

The New Statesman is certainly not a Tory mouthpiece.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/11/conservatives-course-majority-boris-johnson-could-lose-his-seat


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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #868 on: November 24, 2019, 10:48:47 AM »

Everyone has a different 'story' from 2017, so paralleling back will likely result in comparisons which should not be. For example, my personal experience of 2017 was a Tory majority prediction that gradually shrank to a very slim one by election day. This is because my family has worked for YouGov's nonpolitical polling division before, and when the other teams put out that model we knew it was the real deal.

In the end, the polling industry is just trying to fight today's battles, but their knowledge, like us, is faulty. Pollsters always need to get it right, so corrections are always made with the knowledge of history. Said corrections often fail because yesterday is not today. In 2010 it was the LDs getting overshot in seats, in 2015 it was the Torys getting underpolled, in 2016 it was Leave, in 2017 it was Labour. Corrections for past mistakes are usually overcorrections. In the US, this leads to House effects swinging with each election, because there are only two camps to poll. In multiparty systems there are multiple pillars and communities making everything that much more uncertain. What weights are applied and how heavy they need to be for accuracy is a question that keeps pollsters up at night.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #869 on: November 24, 2019, 11:46:44 AM »

I spent polling day in Cambridge in 2017. By mid-afternoon I was quietly confident we'd done enough to hang on there, but it's an atypical seat and I still expected heavy losses. When our committee room stood down for the evening, my partner and I went for a quiet half and contemplated a hefty Tory majority. I was driving her home and some other activists home when I heard the exit poll, and everybody burst out laughing when we heard it, because it was so hilariously awful for the Tories. We still didn't believe it for another couple of hours, and when I drove home from the count at about 2AM, the BBC coverage on the radio was still portraying seats Labour ended up holding with majorities of 5,000+ as potential knife-edge marginals.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #870 on: November 24, 2019, 12:25:26 PM »

I am not able to understand why Corbyn went so wild in the economic policy area.  You might have thought an intelligent move would have been an effort no to terrify Conservative Remainers.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #871 on: November 24, 2019, 12:37:19 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 05:07:44 PM by CumbrianLeftie »

Every election is different, but 2017 comparisons are often being distorted by false memory. A lot of people seem to recall that as an election in which the government started far, far ahead and in which its lead cracked and shrunk due to a sustained Labour surge that, bit by bit, took things to just below the wire on polling day. This is not what happened. What actually happened, is that both parties made substantial gains during the early weeks of the campaign as the third parties collapsed, but the Conservative lead remained stubbornly very high. Then, the Conservative manifesto was unveiled and it was a total disaster. Their lead immediately slumped, more than halving almost overnight in many polls. After that, things bounced around a bit during the last few weeks - there was some distinct movement towards Labour picked up after Corbyn's unexpectedly strong response to the terrorist atrocities, for instance, but that didn't all seem to last - and by polling day the general consensus was of a solid but not massive Conservative lead, with more firms giving them leads over 10pts than suggesting that it might be fairly close. This is why the exit poll was such a great shock to everyone.

The curious part is that we still don't know why the polls were so badly wrong in the end. We know what went wrong in 2015: a very tight race was expected, and so the firms all herded, afraid to put out anything that did not fit with that. But 2017 is a mystery: it is not as simple as 'higher than expected youth turnout' even if that must have been a factor. Conclusions to this? None, exactly. Other than to caution against drawing any conclusions from false memory.

That was something that gave me real hope of an upset, tbh - the media (and Blairite) consensus then was that his speech after that tragic event was electoral suicide, but it didn't turn out that way at all.

Having said that, on polling day I was still expecting a Tory majority somewhat bigger than in 1992....
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #872 on: November 24, 2019, 01:27:19 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 01:49:35 PM by Oryxslayer »

Anyway, the Tory Manifesto dropped. Like I thought, it's relatively benign as far as right-wing party platforms go. I'm sure the resident Labourite's are going to disagree, but that's my take. Fairly center-right unlike May's red-meat platform for the base. No cuts, some spending (far below labour), and the Key plank of Brexit. They clearly are afraid of what happened in 2017 and wish to capitalize on Corbyn's 'radical' platform. However, it's relative moderation is skewed by the entire thing being held up with the key proposal of "Get Brexit Done." So moderate but harsh on Brexit, just what BoJo wants to win Leave seats.

BBC Analysis.

Regarding Scotland, the Manifesto warns of the  "coalition of chaos" and recommits the party to Unionism.


I guess once the document has settled in with the rest of them we will see if something found it's way through that can become 2019s 'dementia tax.'
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parochial boy
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« Reply #873 on: November 24, 2019, 01:32:12 PM »

One random thought’. Supposing SNP gains but also a Tory majority; you’re potentially heading towards a Catalan style constitutional crisis where Johnson refuses to sanction indyref2. I would have thought this was intuitively a likely enough outcome to be worth discussion, but seems to have evaded all commentary so far.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #874 on: November 24, 2019, 01:46:54 PM »

Survation's poll for Monday morning... Con 41, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 5, Greens 3. Labour up two, Tories down one, LibDems up one.
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