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News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 94167 times)
Salad
wolfentoad66
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« Reply #800 on: November 22, 2019, 04:21:06 PM »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.
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afleitch
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« Reply #801 on: November 22, 2019, 04:21:09 PM »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

No.

She was terrible; one of the worst TV guttings of any political leader I've seen.
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bigic
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« Reply #802 on: November 22, 2019, 04:25:10 PM »

I see this thread is becoming as bad as the Israel thread once was...
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Blair
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« Reply #803 on: November 22, 2019, 04:27:28 PM »

Thank god I'm trying a politics free weekend!
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afleitch
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« Reply #804 on: November 22, 2019, 04:29:45 PM »

Yeah I know I'm an SNP supporter and activist, but I do objectively think

Sturgeon


Corbyn






Boris



























(upside down kangaroo)









Swinson
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #805 on: November 22, 2019, 04:32:45 PM »

I've mentioned elsewhere that the decision to do public questions in urban Sheffield led to a very pro-labour crowd. Nobody except Labour is going to win these votes, except maybe in sheff-Hallam which is a different electorate than the city. Everyone who wasn't Jeremy Corbyn got raked over the coals, it just was less obvious with Sturgeon since they made an effort to get Scots in the crowd. In contrast, Corbyn got soapboxes from the crowd in his favor. If you have already made up your mind, then you are going to see this panel as a biased affair and rally around your candidate of choice.
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DaWN
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« Reply #806 on: November 22, 2019, 04:37:59 PM »

And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #807 on: November 22, 2019, 04:40:52 PM »

And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.

Which it isn't. If the BBC has any bias, it's biased in favor of a competitive race. But that won't stop partisans from rallying around the flag and digging in deeper, because that is always easier if you have made up your mind - it's harder to change.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #808 on: November 22, 2019, 04:42:57 PM »

Getting closer.

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #809 on: November 22, 2019, 05:07:17 PM »

"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.

The food bank figure needs explaining to avoid the kind of wild distortions that ultimately hurt Labour.

The figure is more like three million and that's the number of parcels that were given out. Food bank parcels contain three days of food for emergency situations, which are very frequently, but not always benefit related. You need a note from the Jobcentre or a doctor to get one:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/05/welfare-changes-key-factor-rising-poverty-food-bank-use-study-finds

'Benefit sanctions' is a loss of benefit for breaking the conditions for having them:
https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/benefit-sanctions

Considering I once got sanctioned for going to an agency registration instead of signing on - and had told the JCP what I was doing beforehand, they might be fairly casual in handing them out. I did manage to successfully appeal that one.
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Blair
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« Reply #810 on: November 22, 2019, 05:21:34 PM »

fwiw much like QT the BBC would weight the attention; even in Sheffield you are more than capable of finding enough Conservatives, or heaven forbid they could find people sad enough to travel by train.

Besides all it takes is 5-6 people being loutish in the audience to make it appear on TV as if one side is dominant.
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thumb21
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« Reply #811 on: November 22, 2019, 05:59:38 PM »

I think that if anyone had a favourable audience, it was probably Sturgeon. She wasn't questioned nearly as strongly as the other leaders. It was a mainly English audience who probably weren't as well informed on her record.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #812 on: November 22, 2019, 06:32:34 PM »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #813 on: November 22, 2019, 06:52:45 PM »

Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #814 on: November 22, 2019, 08:05:52 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 08:23:22 PM by Coastal Elitist »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #815 on: November 23, 2019, 01:20:10 AM »

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t);

I should clarify that that's not what I meant by "bullsh*t culture war issues". Basically, the distinction I make is between issues that are about providing symbolic benefits to a constituency vs those that are about material benefits. There are certainly plenty of LGBT-related issues that fall into the latter category (as there are plenty of Brexit-related issues - and Labour's position on the material component of Brexit is indeed excellent all around). There's a difference between those questions and the questions that are mainly around the affirmation of symbols (of which the Scottish independence question is one, because let's face it, the material consequences of it are impossible to assess one way or the other, and even if they weren't, they clearly aren't what's driving support or opposition to independence).
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cp
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« Reply #816 on: November 23, 2019, 04:01:02 AM »

Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.

I watched all but Corbyn's bit and I thought Swinson did reasonably well given how hard she was getting hit. The evening was probably still a net negative for her, but I didn't see a moment that was truly irredeemable. Sadly, Johnson also didn't have such a moment, though I think he also came out looking worse overall. The part of his shtick where he babbles/stutters in the lead up to point gets old fast in a setting like this. I also think it makes him look frazzled and unprepared, but that might just be my motivated reasoning at work.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #817 on: November 23, 2019, 06:06:04 AM »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.

Generally true, but not universally so as the fall out from this one shows Wink
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #818 on: November 23, 2019, 06:17:14 AM »

Interesting analysis of the campaign from Conservative Home:

   https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/johnsons-campaign-stops-suggest-cchq-is-not-betting-the-house-on-a-landslide-yet.html

It notes that unlike May, Johnson has weathered both his first debate and the launch of Labour’s Manifesto.  If he can weather the launch of his own, he might be set.”

It points out he has divided his time between with visits to the West Midlands were there are several Labour marginals and visits to the South West “to shore up Liberal Democrat facing marginals.”  Thus he seems to be “dividing his attention pretty evenly between defensive and offensive targets.”

It concludes the “key test of a commander is their ability to adapt on the fly.  With Labour failing their 2017 ignition and Liberal Dem campaign appearing to stall, the Conservative strategists might have to make a decision whether to adopt a more ambitious and aggressive posture.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #819 on: November 23, 2019, 06:17:57 AM »

Getting closer.



It's worth noting that the Tories have kept a decent lead solely by cannibalizing the Leave vote and turning the Brexit Party into dust. The ceiling for the Tories is no higher than the 42% they have here. On the other hand, by squeezing a few seats away from the SNP in Scotland and continuing to eat away at the LibDem (presumably Remain) vote, they can continue to grow as in 2015.

So with a few weeks left the Tories have a nice lead but have no room to grow, and Labour trails but still has a lot of room to grow. Sound familiar? I would still rather be the Conservative Party than Labour with these numbers, but the trajectory of this campaign means that at Tory HQ they'll be white-knuckling it to see how much ground Corbyn the Campy Campaigning Champion makes up between now and the election.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #820 on: November 23, 2019, 06:19:02 AM »

It was a strange crowd - at one point Fiona Bruce picked like 7 Scottish nationalists in a row to ask questions to Corbyn about Scotland. So Swinson getting grief from the more local middle class youth was maybe the least surprising thing - but she's not as effective a campaigner and speaker as she thinks she is. I actually though Boris handled his first part terrible mainly because he just couldn't answer their concerns about Russia and then he rallied well. Sturgeon was forgettable. Corbyn was the best, but apart from the antisemitism the questions were all easily replied within the manifesto's confines.


I really hope Swinson's incompetence and radical message on Remain doesn't cost soft Tories who find a potential Johnson Premiership "unbecoming" . Think her general tone will cost potential upset seats like Esher where people otherwise positive about a LiBDem platform see her and think its a joke party again.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #821 on: November 23, 2019, 07:48:06 AM »
« Edited: November 23, 2019, 08:02:13 AM by Arkansas Yankee »

Survation has completed a poll for the Daily Mail.  It shows 30 northern ridings are set swing to the conservatives:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7716641/Tories-win-30-seats-Labours-northern-heartland.html

Most of Corbynites posting here have maintained that Survation was the best pollster in 2017. Well Survation never produced any polling similar to this in 2017.  I cannot wait to get the cross tabs.

I cannot wait to see how you Corbynites explain away this poll.
    
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DaWN
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« Reply #822 on: November 23, 2019, 07:51:15 AM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #823 on: November 23, 2019, 08:11:11 AM »

The Daily Mail website is a pain to use so I might have missed stuff, but this is impressively dishonest stuff. This appears to be a regional poll (of the whole of the North of England and the Midlands!) that shows a swing of 4.5. Which is not substantially different to what national polling suggests at present - actually it is slightly less than the most recent Survation national poll. In order to justify the general tone of the article, they have decided to milk the hell of out selected subsamples, which, as we all know, is serious '...' territory. It is a little disturbing that they have a quote to that effect as well from someone from the polling firm in question; this is the sort of thing that does not help boost confidence in the polling industry.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #824 on: November 23, 2019, 08:50:05 AM »

Yougov: 42(0)/30(0)/16(+1)/4(0)/3(-1)   21-22 Nov

Tory Manifesto will be released tomorrow.
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