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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 86229 times)
Lord Halifax
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« Reply #775 on: November 21, 2019, 07:25:24 pm »

In some areas, the manifesto is less radical than expected. It has dropped the fantasy target of hitting net zero carbon emissions by 2030, which would require a hugely expensive and near-impossible transformation of the economy. Also gone are proposals to bring private schools into the state sector, and a mooted idea to give private tenants a right to buy their home from their landlord.

Dissapointing.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #776 on: November 21, 2019, 07:30:14 pm »


Even better: they have Swansea East (!!!!!!!!!) down for that as well. What the actual Christ.

Barnsley East: Tossup

uh okay?
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Ishan
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« Reply #777 on: November 21, 2019, 07:30:27 pm »

How do they generate the constituency polls anyway? Landline calls, then weight them for age?

You'd think, but some of the earlier ones (at least: can't comment on the more recent ones) were actually only weighted by... um... Euro Election vote? Bizarre stuff.
Had that been the case in 2015, Farage would have had a lot of seats.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #778 on: November 21, 2019, 08:44:11 pm »
« Edited: November 21, 2019, 08:54:53 pm by Oryxslayer »

Since the Tories haven't released their manifesto, we can play a little game: approximately how much if it will be dedicated to Brexit? 1/5th? 1/3rd?

Note that Labour buried their Brexit policy near the end of their manifesto, a reflection of their campaign strategy to bridge the Remain/Leave divide.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #779 on: November 21, 2019, 09:05:22 pm »

With Great Grimsby an interesting factor is that Melanie Onn endorsed Boris Johnson's Brexit deal (probably to try and get re-elected). I'm not sure how many people know about that, or how it'll factor into the election. This is of course a heavily Leave seat, Onn probably calculated that she could outperform by backing Brexit. However, it does seem quite likely (and ironic) that she'll lose anyway, and most voters won't care or even know. Perhaps it'll even hurt her by reducing Remainer support and enthusiasm for her, and even in these types of constituencies a majority of the Labour base are probably Remainers.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #780 on: November 21, 2019, 11:46:26 pm »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 03:18:09 pm by Mangez des pommes ! »

The fact that folks like the Financial Times are terrified of the manifesto is precisely what makes it so good.

It's such a shame that Corbyn is such a sh*tty messenger, because the message itself is amazing.
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cp
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« Reply #781 on: November 22, 2019, 02:08:06 am »



Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.

If by 'north' you mean Kensington, Wimbledon, and so on, then yes I'd agree. The Lib Dems aren't serious contenders in most of 'The North', i.e. Yorkshire, Lancashire, etc. They *are* making a big play in the Southwest (Cornwall and Devon) but I haven't heard anything about the campaigns in that part of the country.

On the way to work this morning the Tories were handing out pamphlets to commuters at the train station. A bit late to the game, tbh; the Lib Dems have been doing that for two weeks, albeit intermittently.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #782 on: November 22, 2019, 04:20:44 am »

FWIW it's remarkable for the FT to say that the British Economy isn't broken- and equally galling that the FT didn't back Miliband who was offering pretty much what the FT wants now (no Brexit, modest state investment, regulation rather than nationalisation etc) 

At the risk of sounding like the boorish 'you're part of the problem' types- if you think the british economy is working well (current growth rate of 0.1% irrc) then I'm going to be a bit sceptical of your views.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #783 on: November 22, 2019, 06:01:58 am »

The decision by the likes of the FT and Independent to back Cameron over Miliband in 2015 is in retrospect one of the greatest acts of folly in recent times. A completely delusional, cosy mindset that if we could just get rid of this pesky interloper preaching DANGEROUS MARXISM - you know, like regulating the energy market - then things (both in the country and Labour party) would go back to where they were and we could all pretend that 2008 and everything that subsequently developed had never happened.

And people actually wonder why Corbyn supporters don't like our media?
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DaWN
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« Reply #784 on: November 22, 2019, 06:05:04 am »

The British economy is obviously broken and needs transformational change. But that isn't what Corbyn is offering - there's nothing clever or interesting to try and reform a failed system, just "LET'S SPEND OUR WAY OUT!". So at the end of five years, all we are is deep in debt and with the same economic system the Tories will then use for Austerity 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It's probably the most frustrating thing about Corbyn, is that there are frequently opportunities for good things to happen, and he ALWAYS hoofs the ball well clear of the open goal. I'd be interested in voting for transformational change to the economy to create a better, fairer and more reliable system than the current sh**tshow (not this time because of Brexit but maybe in the future.) I have zero interest in voting for failed regressive seventies socialism.

Anyway, from what I've seen the manifesto is going down like a treat with the converted but the jury is very much out on the people who's votes actually matter. I don't think this was a game changer of any kind.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #785 on: November 22, 2019, 07:17:10 am »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 07:20:38 am by Oryxslayer »



Based on the hustings tonight *definitely* yes. In the 90 minutes Raab, Monica Harding, and the Labour candidate debated, Raab got booed or laughed at at least a half dozen times. The biggest jeers came when he tried to answer questions on Brexit. Frankly, even as someone inclined not to like Raab's politics, I was surprised at how vociferous opposition to him was in the room. There was still a solid core of audience support for him, but the Lib Dem contingent was definitely bigger and louder.

Added to that, the Labour candidate was quite weak. I went up to him afterwards and he seemed like a nice enough guy. But he was very soft spoken, seemed very nervous, and actually wrapped up his concluding remarks with something like 'we have to beat the Tories with Labour or the Lib Dems'.


Must be hard standing in front of a crowd trying to argue that you're more than a sacrificial lamb candidate, even though everyone and yourself knows that's a lie.

Interesting that the LDs can follow up on their word to seriously contest the seat though. One has to assume that their prospects are looking up in those Tory seats to the North if they can get a vibrant crowd in the more reachy Raab seat.

If by 'north' you mean Kensington, Wimbledon, and so on, then yes I'd agree. The Lib Dems aren't serious contenders in most of 'The North', i.e. Yorkshire, Lancashire, etc. They *are* making a big play in the Southwest (Cornwall and Devon) but I haven't heard anything about the campaigns in that part of the country.

On the way to work this morning the Tories were handing out pamphlets to commuters at the train station. A bit late to the game, tbh; the Lib Dems have been doing that for two weeks, albeit intermittently.


Yes, I meant those seats directly to the North in the wealthy slice of London, not Yorkshire, NE, etc. I'm not that daft to think the LDs will make seriously gains north of Birmingham, unless polling turns around in a big way. Those seats were all 'in front' of Raab target-wise, so LD prospects must be good across the wealthy slice of West London.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #786 on: November 22, 2019, 07:30:13 am »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 07:38:31 am by Oryxslayer »

The financial times should be scared from their position on the political spectrum. Their UK readership is not accommodating to corbyn, so it would be a shocker that they had good things to say at all. For example, the only times in recent memory the FT endorsed Labour was during the third-way landslide years:





Now I have suspected since before the election that the FT will be endorsing the LDs, their readership and press corps are very pro-remain, but that is not a topic for the here and now.

Images sourced from The Guardian and YouGov.
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afleitch
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« Reply #787 on: November 22, 2019, 10:06:24 am »

Still trying to work out which Vote 2012 Forum member 'I'm poor on 80k me.' shouty BBC Question Time man is.

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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #788 on: November 22, 2019, 10:08:10 am »

And following on from my previous post, one of the best things that could be done to improve media coverage in this country is to fire THAT programme - and all involved with it - onto the surface of the sun.
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afleitch
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« Reply #789 on: November 22, 2019, 10:31:24 am »

And following on from my previous post, one of the best things that could be done to improve media coverage in this country is to fire THAT programme - and all involved with it - onto the surface of the sun.

It's the home of jabbing finger 'look at me' self opinionated wankers. It makes me feel sorry for politicians....maybe that's the point of it.
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DaWN
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« Reply #790 on: November 22, 2019, 10:57:13 am »



This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #791 on: November 22, 2019, 11:31:12 am »

The British economy is obviously broken and needs transformational change. But that isn't what Corbyn is offering - there's nothing clever or interesting to try and reform a failed system, just "LET'S SPEND OUR WAY OUT!". So at the end of five years, all we are is deep in debt and with the same economic system the Tories will then use for Austerity 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It's probably the most frustrating thing about Corbyn, is that there are frequently opportunities for good things to happen, and he ALWAYS hoofs the ball well clear of the open goal. I'd be interested in voting for transformational change to the economy to create a better, fairer and more reliable system than the current sh**tshow (not this time because of Brexit but maybe in the future.) I have zero interest in voting for failed regressive seventies socialism.

Anyway, from what I've seen the manifesto is going down like a treat with the converted but the jury is very much out on the people who's votes actually matter. I don't think this was a game changer of any kind.

What I'm not keen on is the universality of much of the new spending. Handing out free broadband to everyone and free bus passes to those under 25 regardless whether they actually need to get them for free is the kind of thing that personally doesn't appeal to me and seems like a waste of money that could be better spent on other priorities.

The same goes with nationalisation; slapping a double arrow on a train doesn't make it magically more reliable.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #792 on: November 22, 2019, 11:41:03 am »

This is an area where I strongly disagree - the centrist love of means testing and "targeting" everything is one of the least likeable things about them. Universal benefits and services are, other things being equal, good.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #793 on: November 22, 2019, 11:47:17 am »

If they are universal, then those who don't actually need them should be discouraged from taking them.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #794 on: November 22, 2019, 12:52:04 pm »

This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
How do they justify just blatant lies like that Remain graphic?
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DaWN
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« Reply #795 on: November 22, 2019, 01:04:13 pm »

This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
How do they justify just blatant lies like that Remain graphic?

To be fair, it isn't a lie - that's the European election figures for Green+LD+any other Remain parties like CHUK (lol), or at least a close estimation of the numbers. What it is is exceptionally misleading but we've been seeing that a lot lately...
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #796 on: November 22, 2019, 01:34:30 pm »

This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
How do they justify just blatant lies like that Remain graphic?

To be fair, it isn't a lie - that's the European election figures for Green+LD+any other Remain parties like CHUK (lol), or at least a close estimation of the numbers. What it is is exceptionally misleading but we've been seeing that a lot lately...

LD+Green etc. really got 64% of the vote there? That's honestly surprising, I knew the LDs won most of the rockribbed Labour seats in core London at the EU elections, but didn't know they won any by those margins.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #797 on: November 22, 2019, 02:16:15 pm »
« Edited: November 22, 2019, 03:33:53 pm by Oryxslayer »

Corbyn just confirmed that he would, in no uncertain terms, stand as a politically neutral party in Labour's hypothetical 'labour deal versus remain' referendum. The rest of his position was the normal half-and-half between Remain and Leave.

Also gives a half-and-half on IndyRef2. Says Labour will oppose the IndyRef for the first 2-3 years of their govt, uncertain beyond that. While neutrality might be better on Brexit, this seems like an approach designed to piss of all of Unionists/Seperatists/Scottish labour.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #798 on: November 22, 2019, 03:28:15 pm »

Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.
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afleitch
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« Reply #799 on: November 22, 2019, 03:48:16 pm »

Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t); it has (even in the manifesto) But it is good at keeping to core 'Labour' face to face issues and trying to draw the Tories to that fight where they try and fail to match it with populism.

Labour in Scotland is an awkward coalition of unionists, Orangemen, old Lanarkshire grannies and wealthy Edinburgh suburbanites. If it falls back again then yes, UK Labour have nothing to lose because there's nothing left of the Scottish party to try and keep on side. Ideally, if it wasn't for matters of pride and pushback from the Scottish party, some of whom have over the past decade in trying to 'own the Nats' ended up as fellow travellers to the Tories, Labour would stand down in Scotland completely.

So I think a swift agreement with the SNP would happen; that's why the first 'one or two years of a Labour government' is the line; not 'never'.

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