United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[CumbrianLefty]

So every poll in the last 48 hours gives a Tory lead of 10-13 points. With just one rather glaring exception.

[CumbrianLefty]

The remaining Labour hope is that the current polls are actually a bit out, and tbf they *may* be.

Canvassing accounts from their people on the ground can be described as "mixed", but maybe on the side of doing just a bit better than polls are saying rather than the opposite.

And mostly younger voters continue to register in large numbers, with 2 more days to go.

[CumbrianLefty]

ICM today had the Tories ahead by 41-34 (the latter is the highest Labour score in any poll for quite a while) Together with the Welsh survey, a modest encouragement for them that things could yet move further.

[CumbrianLefty]

What about Swinson - has Neil interviewed her already or did I just imagine it?

[CumbrianLefty]

YouGov are claiming a national vote share of Con43 Lab32 for this MRP survey. That is actually the same as their latest "regular" poll, strangely enough - and better for the Tories than some others recently.

Bear that in mind before getting *too* excited about certain individual seat claims.

(those shares are also eerily similar to the 1987 result - the first GE that I was fully involved in)

[CumbrianLefty]

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

Are the changes from 2017 or from the previous poll? And if the latter, when was it taken?

From the last election.

And I am calling out that Labour figure as too low.

[CumbrianLefty]

So the Tories are threatening to use the tools of government to enact retribution against unsympathetic news outlets. Very cool stuff.

And yet the media has overall given Johnson much better coverage than Corbyn.

A large number of them are bootlickers, unfortunately.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson apparently not having an easy time of it on normally supportive LBC this morning.

[CumbrianLefty]

Could have been worse, it appears.

EDIT: posted before it became clear there were two fatalities

[CumbrianLefty]

There's also a 7 way debate in Cardiff tonight, but BoJo, Corbyn, and Farage are sending replacements. I get the feeling that this debate may have a lot of security related questions after what happened today.

There was some reference to it, but it far from swamped the debate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, it is *possible* the polls could be currently understating the Tories and Opinium turn out correct. Everything is possible, including Liverpool FC not ending their 30 year title drought from their present league position.

<prays>

But seriously, the reason for my scepticism is that almost nobody *on the ground* thinks that is the case. In contrast to 2015, when Tories genuinely thought the polls showing Labour slightly ahead were wrong (and said so)

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, thinking (and I mean *thinking*) about it, maybe it has been judged his legal background might help given how Friday's horrible events are likely to take up a significant part of the discussion?

But yeah, its a bit of a strange one alright.....

[CumbrianLefty]

In the judgement of people like you despise it, yes.

Not anyone else.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour pick up a few more points from the LibDems/Greens, and its real "squeaky bum time".......

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently the latest YouGov had the Tories "only" six points ahead before some "undecided" voters were reallocated - this may help explain reported jitters (both locally and at HQ) recently?

[CumbrianLefty]

A strange little snippet from yesterday - the PM got a hostile response by some voters in Salisbury, but maybe the real question is why he was there (a generally safe Tory seat since forever) in the first place?

[CumbrianLefty]

Anecdote alert warning - there are now a few fairly reliable accounts of a few of the, utterly beloved by our media, LIFELONG LABOUR HEARTLAND ("red wall" in current parlance) voters who were going to make a HISTORIC EPOCHAL SWITCH to the Tories BECAUSE BORIS OVEN READY BREXIT getting cold feet at the last minute and actually sending their postal votes off with a cross for.......Labour. "I just couldn't do it" some have reportedly said

On this now almost hackneyed subject, the Graun has a typically awful - and cliche strewn - piece about Bishop Auckland. Written by somebody who popped up a few years ago with the then almost de rigeur line that LIFELONG LABOUR HEARTLAND voters were poised to switch to UKIP en masse for quite literally no other reason than Paul Nuttall (remember him?) having a scouse accent.

Equally unsurprisingly, they are one of those who get paid to grift about "towns".

[CumbrianLefty]

TBF, Salisbury the town is a lot less strongly Conservative than Salisbury the constituency.

I know, but still makes you wonder why he was there.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

That's also possible. Labour could theoretically be overstated.

It is possible, but given that some pollsters are still (for instance) factoring in a notably lower turnout for younger voters (Kantar continues to claim only 20% of age 18-24 are "certain to vote") perhaps not.

[CumbrianLefty]

YouGov's got an interesting chart out. While the numbers look bleak for Labour, remember that voters cast ballots on more issues than Brexit.

Given that the Lib Dems have dropped Revoke as a policy because it's turned out be extremely unpopular on the doorstep, there are reasons to doubt the accuracy of this finding.

Especially since Corbyn actually said *he* would stay "neutral", not the wider party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Getting a bit ahead of ourselves here aren't we?

And this may be an occasion when the polls "average lead" turns out to be not much use.

[CumbrianLefty]

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work??

[CumbrianLefty]

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work??

The total adds up to only 90% which is far too low.

It also shows the SNP up 1, and "Others" up by 4(!)

Supposedly this is the product of showing people a "full choice" of options.

But in many seats "others" are not standing at all, and in lots of places where they do they will poll derisory votes. It genuinely makes little sense at all.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Sikhs remain highly loyal to Labour, a schism in their Southall heartland at the time of the 2007 byelection (a group led by the local "community leader" passed over for the nomination defected to the Tories) ultimately didn't count for much. They have, in this country and elsewhere, suffered a fair amount of ignorant abuse from racists that was actually "meant" for Muslims - and attempts by a few in their ranks to play the sectarian (ie anti Muslim) card to boost the Tory cause have had little traction.

Hindus are a different matter admittedly, though even there it shouldn't be overstated - a clear plurality continue to support Labour and much of the pro-Tory activism there has become linked with stans for Modi, which is not universally popular. It is worth mentioning too that Priti Patel originates from the Ugandan Asian community, which has always been more pro-Tory than average due to their gratitude to the party that admitted them to the UK in the 1970s.

Hope this helps!