United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[DaWN]

Salisbury is a seat that I can't quite believe never went Lib Dem between 97 and 10. It feels like a seat that should have done, right? In any case, 'politican goes to x seat that shouldn't be competitive' very rarely means the seat actually is.

[DaWN]

How are y'all's takes on the East Devon race?

Seems rather odd that LDs fielded a candidate here...

With Swire retiring, it'll be a comfortable Con hold. Much of the vote last time was against him rather than for her. I imagine she'll take second again though.

[DaWN]

ANECDOTE ALERT

I did some leafleting for the Lib Dems in Streatham this morning. The bloke I spoke to said he was sure  they'd make second and would cut the Labour majority. How much of a cut he didn't say, but I'm going to guess a fairly small one. The bloke thought they might have had a chance if Chuka had stood again but that didn't happen so they don't. Make of that what you will; i.e not much.

Delivered some leaflets in one of the estates and frankly I'd be flabbergasted if a single person I leafleted doesn't vote Labour. It's the thought that counts I suppose.

I did, however, lose a fight with a letterbox at one point, the results of which are displayed thus.

[DaWN]

I mean, that's very nice looking, but it is basically just guesswork. Not that I think the polls are definitely right of course, I've thought for quite a while that the pollsters don't have the tiniest idea of what kind of electorate will turn out on Thursday.

[DaWN]

I see people on Twitter are a bit mad about the City of London poll. I saw the YouGov MRP rated it as 'Likely Conservative' so I don't know what the fuss is all about.

Because only Labour are allowed to contest seats, duh.

[DaWN]

"Boris Johnson hid in a fridge while being pursued by a TV reporter attempting to interview him on the eve of the general election."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-hides-fridge-general-election-piers-morgan-good-morning-britain-live-tv-a9241631.html

..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points

Because he's facing Jeremy Corbyn.

[DaWN]

I find that people frequently misunderstand what a Portillo moment is. It isn't just 'someone high profile losing their seat' - there were plenty of those in 1997 and in every election since.

There are two elements to it - first it needs to be some so high profile that their absence from parliament fundamentally shifts the future of their party. Portillo losing his seat meant he couldn't run for the leadership of the Tory party for instance. Second, it needs to be completely unexpected. Saying 'I think x is a candidate for a Portillo moment' means that x cannot be a Portillo moment, because you expect it as a possibility. The real Portillo moment would be y losing their seat that nobody thought was even remotely likely to flip.

Therefore, Boris or Raab can't be Portillo moments this election because it's now fairly common knowledge their seats are at least somewhat vulnerable. If Corbyn or Patel lost, then that would be a Portillo moment. Of course, neither of them would lose in a trillion years, but you get the point...

[DaWN]

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers

[DaWN]

Going to put out the blazingly obviously point that Labour are not the party that need to be winning Tory Remainers

Libdems are right, the problem is the difference between LibDem and labour is not a cultural divide but an economic divide, and the study makes It appears, that tory remainers are almost as culturally conservative as labour leavers. As this study is based in 2017, it should be the case that a lot of the socially liberal tory retainers already switched to the tory party, so there won't be a lot for the liberal democrats to actually gain.

I'd also caution against basing such assumptions on a single study (or indeed multiple studies frankly). If Tory Remainers were really so socially conservative, the Lib Dems wouldn't have come within 3,000 votes of the Tories in f!cking Esher of all places in the middle of a nationwide landslide.

[DaWN]

Then of course there's at least a chance Brexit is a disaster and the economy goes under and suddenly the size of the majority becomes rather academic.

(Which is why Labour's choice of leader needs to be right one and why Long-Bailey being inevitable is so depressing, but that's another discussion)