United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[306]

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.

“Respectful” but wrong, as Epstein’s name is NOT pronounced that way, which makes it look more like stupid-person failed fake PC pandering. I agree that it’s unlikely it was intended to be anti-Semitic, but Corbyn has justifiably lost the benefit of the doubt on anti-Semitism at this point, so one can hardly blame people for having their hackles up.

[cp]

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.

“Respectful” but wrong, as Epstein’s name is NOT pronounced that way, which makes it look more like stupid-person failed fake PC pandering. I agree that it’s unlikely it was intended to be anti-Semitic, but Corbyn has justifiably lost the benefit of the doubt on anti-Semitism at this point, so one can hardly blame people for having their hackles up.

Problem is, if you try to explain why such hackling might be, in this case, unjustified and even a little silly, it still feeds into the 'Corbyn is an antisemite' discourse and so reinforces that loss of the benefit of the doubt, which in this case is actually pretty unfair to Corbyn.

On the 2010 Lib Dem performance, something I picked up after the fact from people involved is how unprepared the Lib Dems were for the massive surge in their vote mid-campaign. They had no plan for how to expand their map of targeted seats to account for being in first or a three way tie for first. As a result, the party frantically shoveled money/resources into ultimately unwinnable seats, depleting the resources in more marginal ones where they could have won if they had stuck to a consistent plan.

[EastAnglianLefty]

One of my friends was an organiser in a marginal Labour lost to the Lib Dems in 2010. When the ballot boxes were opened, initial sampling suggested that they'd done enough to hold on. It wasn't until the postal votes were mixed in that they realised they were in trouble, because those had been returned in the middle of Cleggmania and the Lib Dems far outperformed the score they got on the day.

[DaWN]

It's so hilarious in hindsight there was a 'mania' for that snake oil salesman

[Zinneke]

It's so hilarious in hindsight there was a 'mania' for that snake oil salesman

Alternative Vote and no tuition fees, plus a staunch anti-interventionist stance towards Iraq. Sounds good to me at the time too.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Jeremy Corbyn is British. Why would he know how Americans pronounce German surnames? The way we butcher these surnames is specific to the US, similar to how British people have a knack for mangling Spanish words and surnames.  

[c r a b c a k e]

The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.

I pronounce it "schtein" as a lingering legacy of my German gcse (I also pronounce "Vollkswagen" as "folksvagen" for similar reasons)

[adma]

The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.

Case in point: the most fabled British Epstein, Beatles manager Brian Epstein.  (Which Wikipedia affirms as "stein", even though a lot of casual Yank Beatlemaniacs have tended to default to "steen")

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I have to say, it's really not a good look for the media to go after Corbyn for supposedly mispronouncing a name while he was pledging to defend the victims of Epstein's sordid pedophile ring. It's more than a bit anti-Semitic to assume that disdain for a literal pedophile is some sign of an anti-Semitic bent...

[Roblox]

Wait, the media is actually ragging on Corbyn for….Mispronouncing a pedophiles name? What the ? Like, are there any actual British voters that would actually think "how dare that socialist bastard Corbyn disrespect the good name of….The guy who ran an international pedo ring…"

[Oryxslayer]

I think it's just a surprisingly slow news day, all of the discussion boards I follow on the election have been concerned with different minor things.

[Walmart_shopper]

I have to say, it's really not a good look for the media to go after Corbyn for supposedly mispronouncing a name while he was pledging to defend the victims of Epstein's sordid pedophile ring. It's more than a bit anti-Semitic to assume that disdain for a literal pedophile is some sign of an anti-Semitic bent...

What is more anti-Semitic: obsessing about the Jewish identity of a man who ran an illegal smut ring, or mispronouncing his name?

For what it's worth, Israelis often pronounce the "-stein" differently than Americans, too. "Ayan-sta-yan" can be "Ayan-shteen," for example.

But this obviously has less to do with Jew-phobia than with Jezza-phobia.

[afleitch]

Roundheads v Cavaliers

https://election.unherd.com/

Focal Data doing some election stuff...but for now just views of the monarchy.

[urutzizu]

Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

[DaWN]

Full labour manifesto: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf

full lib dem manifesto: https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/57307/attachments/original/1574267252/Stop_Brexit_and_Build_a_Brighter_Future.pdf?1574267252

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

Well it's a good policy of course, but it's also one they know there's zero chance of being implemented, so they can afford to promise things that obviously aren't actually all that practical.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the Lib Dem manifesto. Labour manifesto is uncosted seventies tripe of course but that was hardly unexpected so my reaction is an uninterested 'meh'. The Tory manifesto will be the interesting one to watch; if its really bad again we could be in for an interesting ride.

[Oryxslayer]

Credit where credit is due to the lib dems, pledging to give all 7 Million Hong kongers full Citizenship rights and right of abode is ambitious and would help correct many historical injustices (but would also spark full blown diplomatic crisis with china)

I mean obvious unicorns are obvious. LDs are never going to be in command of government so they can afford to make outlandish proposals like this. It's the kind of proposal that isn't that thought out, but since everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the timely crisis in Hong Kong, it doesn't hurt to throw unicorns out there and use them to win votes.

[urutzizu]

I mean obvious unicorns are obvious. LDs are never going to be in command of government so they can afford to make outlandish proposals like this. It's the kind of proposal that isn't that thought out, but since everyone agrees that something needs to be done about the timely crisis in Hong Kong, it doesn't hurt to throw unicorns out there and use them to win votes.

I am not sure whether it is so outlandish or not thought out. It was only recently proposed by the Chairman of the Commons affairs committee Tom Tugenthat (Con) and was supported by both the last two Governors of HK before the Handover. The extent of emigration to Britain would likely not massively increase in the immediate term, HK and Britain have comparable living standards and social security systems. The main idea is giving HKers an Insurance policy of sorts against a Chinese crackdown like 1989. People in Hong Kong are already entitled to a form of second class British nationality (BN(O) status), the history of which is mired in quite racist ideas, but without right of abode in the UK.

But I do take your point that they can promise unicorns as they are not going to form Government.

[c r a b c a k e]

tbf in regards to the costings, an awful lot of the Lib Dem manifesto is a presupposition that the "remain bonus" of 50 billion pounds turns out in reality.

They also want a LVT on commercial land to replace rents. I support that.

Also in regards to the LD policy on further education, I really hate the phrase "skills wallet". Must have focus grouped well, because I've seen them use it a lot.

Classic LD triangulation policy with Trident: they decide not to abolish, not to renew in full, but build three submarines instead of the current four. (In all fairness to them, Labour apparently were musing on an even sillier one a few years back: build the submarines so Barrow workers can do something, but don't build the missiles)

Also they want cannabis legalised. Can't remember if they wanted that last time.

[c r a b c a k e]

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecided Lab 2017 voters + a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

[jaichind]

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecideds mostly Lab 2017 voters ans a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

[Oryxslayer]

Great Grimsby

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 31% (-18)
BREX: 17% (+17)
LDEM: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+3)

(lot of undecideds mostly Lab 2017 voters ans a small sample size, but not great news for Labour)

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

On the  other hand, we don't know if BXT voters would flow to the Tories here if BXT didn't exist. BXT is just the easier pill to swallow, but if forced to choose more may go for the next blue in line.

Also, obvious warnings about the accuracy of constituency polls are obvious.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

The essential problem with this narrative is that there is no reason to believe that the Brexit Party vote does not = (some of the) people who voted UKIP in 2015 and, well, that really isn't what that pattern looked like.

[Oryxslayer]

A notable feature of constituency polling thusfar is that with the exception of the Gedling poll, they have all shown significantly larger absolute or relative declines (i.e. where the drops have been lower in percentage-point terms, they have been in constituencies where the vote was lower to start with; often a higher proportion of the vote in such seats is shown as lost) in Labour support than suggested by national polling at the time they were conducted. Given the diversity of constituency polled, this is, how shall we say, something of a red flashing light as to their likely accuracy.

Or universal swing isn't going to be as applicable as it has been in the past. I have long expected the Referendum results to be a be a predictor of swings, though the results won't mirror the brexit vote, obviously. We had polls from the uber-remain wealthy strip of tory London and Cambridge, and surprise the LDs are surging in these remain strongholds to some degree at the expense of both majors. We have had polls of Workington and now Grimsby and both confirmed the parties that are campaigning on Brexit are doing good in the harder Leave seats. So where is labour holding up under these Brexit-weighted models: their urban safe seats. These places are the home  of the modern working class, urban visible minorities, and to borrow a term from Canada, ABC voters. Makes sense considering Momentum and their youth-focused campaign is naturally going to do better in the  places where the  youth are congregating.

But, of course, obvious worries about constituency polls MOE and accuracy are obvious.

[jaichind]

Sort of fits the narrative that BXP eats into LAB leave voters that would not vote CON while in the South BXP tend to eat into CON base.  Of couse BXP is not running in most of the South.

The essential problem with this narrative is that there is no reason to believe that the Brexit Party vote does not = (some of the) people who voted UKIP in 2015 and, well, that really isn't what that pattern looked like.

Sure.  But the 2015 UKIP vote in the North are also made up of pre-2015 pro-Leave LAB voters.  They went back to LAB in 2017 when many like myself thought UKIP would be a gateway drug to CON but it seems that this bunch has a real resistance to voting CON.  So if BXP did not run here I suspect many of them would not vote or vote LAB but not CON.  So my guess is that BXP running in places like this helps CON.