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February 26, 2021, 02:33:18 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 95544 times)
Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #700 on: November 19, 2019, 08:24:45 PM »

I do not think that Corbyn is antisemitic. He just refuses to deal with those that inhabit his party or speak at the same rallies.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #701 on: November 19, 2019, 08:32:00 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2019, 08:37:40 PM by Arkansas Yankee »

With Tories in the low 40s in most polls and Labour in the high 20s or at 30 in most polls, I do not see them getting anywhere near as close as they did in 2017 without the collapse of the Lib Dem or some real tactical voting.  I do not yet see either really happening.

The Tories are benefitting from the collapse of the Brexit Party.  Farage is making a fool out of himself.  I am sad to see it.  He could be leading the swing to the Tories rather than causing it by becoming a fool.
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Pericles
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« Reply #702 on: November 19, 2019, 10:37:32 PM »

The audience probably shouldn't be allowed to laugh and jeer in the debate, that factors into what the people at home think when they should just focus on the points the candidates make. This isn't a partisan thing because the audience laughed and jeered at both candidates.
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cp
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« Reply #703 on: November 20, 2019, 01:11:34 AM »

The audience probably shouldn't be allowed to laugh and jeer in the debate, that factors into what the people at home think when they should just focus on the points the candidates make. This isn't a partisan thing because the audience laughed and jeered at both candidates.

I suppose you're right, but I've always enjoyed listening to audience reactions. They're a kind of instantaneous snap poll of whatever the person speaking has just said that cuts through the bullsh!t and bluster. They're especially useful in the age of social media where partisans on either side (online or in commentary panels on TV afterwards) will spin *everything* as pro-us/anti-them.

I think it would be useful to have a debate with no audience but with a more prosecutorial moderator and/or a format that allows the contestants more time to speak freely. Have that alongside other debates where there is an audience and you might get the best of both worlds. 
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cp
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« Reply #704 on: November 20, 2019, 01:59:10 AM »

Johnson definitely won because he made the debate all about Brexit.

ITV decided beforehand to make the first half of the debate focused on Brexit. The second half was on other topics, including the NHS where Corbyn did substantially better than Johnson did.


Tories being utter c-nts with CCHQPress twitter changed their name to 'factcheckUK.'

This appears to be getting a lot of coverage, with pretty universal condemnation; even right-wing hacks like Janet Hart-Brewer have denounced it. Twitter's also made a formal statement saying that they will swiftly discipline any account that tries this again.
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jfern
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« Reply #705 on: November 20, 2019, 02:04:26 AM »

I'm amazed at how many people said both did well.

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urutzizu
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« Reply #706 on: November 20, 2019, 05:05:22 AM »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have a feeling that this confirmation bias at play here, though.

The TV audience yesterday was 6.7 Million by the way.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #707 on: November 20, 2019, 05:54:13 AM »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.
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cp
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« Reply #708 on: November 20, 2019, 06:29:19 AM »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

Based on what? The assorted 2010 and 2015 election debates ranged between 2 and 9 million viewers, and the numbers out today are just the overnights. People who watch on catch up aren't counted, nor are the masses of people who watch clips of the debate online.

Some more detailed figures from the YouGov after action poll here:



A trend worth keeping an eye on: Whenever Johnson, or to a lesser extent the Tory party in general, has a lead in various 'attributes' (more likeable, more relatable, better on the NHS, etc.) it's almost always because of softer support for Labour/Corbyn rather than a higher regard for the Tories. Put another way: Tories are lock step behind Johnson and his party no matter what while Labour supporters are more ambivalent. This dynamic was also present in 2017.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #709 on: November 20, 2019, 08:00:55 AM »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?

The point is, he was likely to do a *lot* worse before the debates.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #710 on: November 20, 2019, 08:41:40 AM »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #711 on: November 20, 2019, 09:22:28 AM »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #712 on: November 20, 2019, 09:50:58 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2019, 09:54:26 AM by Filuwaúrdjan »

The usual American pronunciation would be 'steen',* the usual British pronunciation would be 'stein', the original pronunciation would be 'schtein'.

*Though there are exceptions: e.g. the great LENNY always insisted that his surnname should be pronounced as Bern-schtein not Burn-steen.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #713 on: November 20, 2019, 10:38:51 AM »

The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #714 on: November 20, 2019, 11:14:04 AM »

The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?

And Bojo stepping all over his party's tax plan roll out (oops).
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #715 on: November 20, 2019, 11:22:18 AM »

The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)
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DaWN
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« Reply #716 on: November 20, 2019, 11:49:07 AM »

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #717 on: November 20, 2019, 11:57:12 AM »

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).

Of course, its much more a comment on how a certain type of political "observer" sees things.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #718 on: November 20, 2019, 12:04:32 PM »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..
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Estrella ✯
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« Reply #719 on: November 20, 2019, 12:57:36 PM »

6.7 million viewersv.  Not a good number at all.

That's more than ten percent of the electorate.

2010 first debate audience =9,679,000  29,687,684 voted
2015 first debate audience =8.8 million. 30,697,525 voted.

In 2017 May refused to debate.  This is one reason she failed to secure a majority in the election.

Does’nt 6,700,000 seem a little puny..


This is the third general election (and fourth major vote, counting the 2016 referendum) in four years. For over three years now, Brexit and its fallout haven't been out of the news. Frankly, I'm surprised more people aren't turned off by politics at this point.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #720 on: November 20, 2019, 01:08:47 PM »

And one thing that is notable in this campaign - anecdotal, but agreed by quite a few people of varying persuasions - is how keen many of the public are to talk about literally anything *but* Brexit.

(and just a point about the debate viewing figures - it is now quite a bit easier to view these and other things on social media rather than simply the TV, compared to 2010)
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The Mikado
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« Reply #721 on: November 20, 2019, 01:11:45 PM »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #722 on: November 20, 2019, 01:15:31 PM »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #723 on: November 20, 2019, 01:46:36 PM »

And one thing that is notable in this campaign - anecdotal, but agreed by quite a few people of varying persuasions - is how keen many of the public are to talk about literally anything *but* Brexit.

(and just a point about the debate viewing figures - it is now quite a bit easier to view these and other things on social media rather than simply the TV, compared to 2010)

A poll today (Ipsos, I reckon) now has the NHS as the most important issue for voters, for the first time topping Brexit. Corbyn's namby-pambyism on Brexit may hurt Labour in core remainer constituencies in central London, but a government will be made out of marginals outside of London, in places where voters want to see Brexit views couched within a broader ideological context involving trade, taxes, nhs, etc. And on those issues Labour is clearly winning the debate so far.
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vileplume
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« Reply #724 on: November 20, 2019, 01:49:17 PM »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?

Because most Lib Dem seats/target seats are 'naturally' Tory leaning. In 2010 the Tory's vote share nationally went up significantly more than the Lib Dem's did and so consequently the Lib Dems made net losses to them. They did gain ground on Labour in many 'metropolitan' seats (e.g. Streatham) but not enough to flip many of them and hence despite 'Cleggmania' they ended up losing a net of 5 seats.

In the opposite way in the Blair landslide of 1997 the Lib Dem's vote share decreased but they gained a net of 26! seats. This was because the Tory's vote share fell by an awful lot more (hence they gained a lot of Tory seats) and as the surging Labour Party still wasn't competitive in most Lib Dem held or target seats (meaning they only lost a couple of seats in that direction).
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