United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 96862 times)
cp
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« Reply #525 on: November 14, 2019, 12:47:48 PM »

What do people make of Corbyn saying that in a hung parliament he would not agree to a coalition with the SNP (and presumably the Lib Dems) and would force them decide between supporting a Labour minority or the Tories? I'd call it electioneering, but it seems pretty consistent with the Labour position earlier this year around the "national unity government" debate.

I think it's his way of rebutting the Tories' charge of 'coalition of chaos' and shoring up Labour's vote in Scotland.

More broadly, *of course* it's electioneering. It's *always* electioneering. It baffles me that people and the media insist on going through this pantomime every time. Every party that's aiming for government will say they won't do a coalition, and every party, when presented with the possibility of taking office in a coalition once the votes are counted, will seek to do so anyway.

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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #526 on: November 14, 2019, 02:21:33 PM »

I can go into far too much detail about this if anyone is interested: I have done before.

I vaguely remember you discussing that before, but I don't remember all the details, and I'd be very interested if you'd like to elaborate on it.
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Pericles
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« Reply #527 on: November 14, 2019, 03:54:34 PM »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #528 on: November 14, 2019, 04:03:31 PM »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

Those who dislike him, really dislike him. He's a British version of Trump.
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DaWN
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« Reply #529 on: November 14, 2019, 04:07:07 PM »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

He's very polarising and if he turns up in a marginal (which the party leaders will) then roughly half of the people there hate his guts- out of that half, there's bound to be people willing to yell at him. The same thing will certainly happen to Corbyn and quite possibly some of the lesser leaders as well. It's the way of things, for better or worse (alright, definitely for worse).
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Cassius
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« Reply #530 on: November 14, 2019, 05:53:55 PM »

How come Boris gets heckled so much? Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it happens more often than in previous elections. And divisiveness over Brexit doesn't seem like the explanation because most of the heckling isn't actually about Brexit. The other party leaders, who are polling worse, don't seem to get heckled as much.

He’s the leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, therefore he will be heckled. Happened to May and happened to Cameron. It’s kind of axiomatic for almost any Conservative politician that fifty percent of the electorate will hate you with a wild eyed, broiling passion that lends itself to heckling, whilst most of the remaining fifty percent will be, at best, agnostic in their attitude towards you.
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DaWN
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« Reply #531 on: November 14, 2019, 06:06:37 PM »



In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s. I wish this was fake.
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« Reply #532 on: November 14, 2019, 06:50:27 PM »



In a surreal turn, here we see Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn photographed holding a blu-ray of a fanmade spinoff movie of an obscure Doctor Who villain from the 1980s.

This actually improves my opinion of Corbyn.

Quote
I wish this was fake.

I don't.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #533 on: November 14, 2019, 07:24:19 PM »

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.

Yes Dawn is being either woefully wrong about the internal dynamics in the Labour Party or engaging in pearl clutching. There's not a single case of an MP being deselected over being too pro EU & if you think Corbyn has the power to point and deselect ask how Neil Coyle, Ian Murray and the most vitriolic anti-Corbyn MPs sailed through...

There's at least 50 MPs who have rebelled regularly & are actively encouraged and supported by their local party.

There's another 50 who have proved wiling to also rebel against the leadership

Coyle's at least didn't really "sail through" - voting was quite close and it is credibly reported that some rather dodgy tactics were employed. Your more general point is valid, though.
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Beezer
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« Reply #534 on: November 15, 2019, 04:03:34 AM »

Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.



https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #535 on: November 15, 2019, 04:10:50 AM »

Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.



https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/

Jezza is an outstanding campaigner. Corbyn's Labour is perhaps as good at campaigning as the Tories are bad. Somehow "Let's not tax rich people, let's cut ties with our main economic benefactor across the Channel, and maybe America's impeached president will bestow glory on us" is emphatically less aspirational than Labour's promises to build a fair, equal, and prosperous future.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #536 on: November 15, 2019, 05:29:46 AM »

According to the Wikipedia article Brexit Party is standing in 267 seats, so not quite the 300 that Farage was promising. UKIP has 43 candidates.
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cp
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« Reply #537 on: November 15, 2019, 06:22:48 AM »

Corbyn surge is real and this time around the gap at the beginning of the campaign is smaller than 2 years ago. Comrades, our dreams may become a reality after all.



https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/coffee-house-shots-live-what-will-happen-in-this-election/

Jezza is an outstanding campaigner. Corbyn's Labour is perhaps as good at campaigning as the Tories are bad. Somehow "Let's not tax rich people, let's cut ties with our main economic benefactor across the Channel, and maybe America's impeached president will bestow glory on us" is emphatically less aspirational than Labour's promises to build a fair, equal, and prosperous future.

Corbyn's a much better politician than his opponents will ever be willing to admit to themselves, and the Tories' policy proposals have been out of step with most of the country since 2015 (at least), but I'm treating this development with more caution than vindication at the moment.

Yes, Labour is following the basic trajectory they did in 2017, but the Tories are gaining ground, too - something that didn't happen in 2017. The Lib Dems are also polling better than they did 2 years ago and their reasons for jumping to Labour are less obvious than they were then (tactical voting notwithstanding). I'd also note that at least part of the Tories' shifting fortunes in the 2017 campaign was due to the collapse of personal popularity for Theresa May. Johnson isn't anywhere near as popular as May was when she called the 2017 election and his supporters are *much* more devoted than May's ever were; he hasn't got as far to fall and he has a higher floor of support.

We'll see how things play out over the next couple of weeks. The leaders' debates will probably accelerate whatever trends have taken hold by the time they happen.

Also, in yet another installment of me not understanding how politics works, Labour's policy announcement of free broadband (and the nationalization of part of BT to do it) is getting huge  positive media attention and the attacks against it from the Tories and Lib Dems are falling flat. Strange times.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #538 on: November 15, 2019, 06:23:21 AM »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
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afleitch
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« Reply #539 on: November 15, 2019, 07:58:26 AM »
« Edited: November 15, 2019, 08:30:41 AM by afleitch »

No polls, but 3 local by-elections in Scotland last night in Dunfermline, Rosyth and Inverness.

Here is the 4 party share in the Scottish by-elections with change on 2017 4 party share. That's the 2017 local elections which took place one month before the GE.

SNP 43.5 (+3.8 )
CON 25.3 (-0.3)
LIB 17.2 (+9.1)
LAB 14.0 (-12.6)

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Ishan
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« Reply #540 on: November 15, 2019, 08:18:19 AM »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #541 on: November 15, 2019, 09:26:24 AM »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

And opposing Brexit is a brilliant political strategy for any of the opposition parties, and not only because "the will of the people" has so obviously changed.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #542 on: November 15, 2019, 10:11:56 AM »



Continued proof that Brexit was just the holding pen for future tories.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #543 on: November 15, 2019, 10:22:21 AM »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

Yup. And they’re paying the price for it.

New Blair would throttle this Tory party
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jaichind
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« Reply #544 on: November 15, 2019, 10:28:15 AM »



Continued proof that Brexit was just the holding pen for future tories.

I wonder what their methodology is?  Namely did they just ask for party support or excluded BXP as a choice for someone from a seat where BXP is not running.  If former then this result ia significant. If the latter it seems to be a statistical shift as long as we accept that most Southern BXP supports are mostly former CON voters.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #545 on: November 15, 2019, 10:38:50 AM »


What a boring, brainless troll.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #546 on: November 15, 2019, 10:50:24 AM »

There was also a ComRes out... I think yesterday? that showed Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 16, BP 7, SNP 4, Greens 3.

So, again, a small upwards Con tick from the Brexit Party. Neither they nor Panelbase are what you'd call 'good', of course.

This whole 'half of constituencies' thing is going to be such a mess for pollsters and for people tying to work out the implications of polls.


They say that they ask for a second-choice party and make appropriate adjustments - claim the effect is Con +1.
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Estrella ✯
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« Reply #547 on: November 15, 2019, 11:24:09 AM »

What a boring election.

But basically everyone has no one to blame but themselves

Labour for not ditching Corbyn

LibDems for a ridiculous policy of defying the will of the people regardless of what they might say in a second referendum

Brexit - for not fighting the Tories nationwide. If they did I think they could actually win a handful of seats. But not fighting a full campaign has definitely discouraged voters and Farage not running was a putrid mistake because most Brexit party voters look up to him a lot and would be more motivated to vote for them knowing they’d be led by Farage in parliament.

Yawn
Labour isn't New Labour anymore.

Yup. And they’re paying the price for it.

New Blair would throttle this Tory party

You do realize there already is a party for the metropolitan upper class? A non-insignificant part of Corbyn's success comes from people who are left wing economically and, for the want of a better term, anti-SJW. How exactly would turning the party into Lib Dems but in red help, I don't understand.

In any case, it's not the 90s, when everybody was trying to be the centristest centrist (on the left at least). The strategy worked well then,  but then is then and now is now. Just see my sig.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #548 on: November 15, 2019, 11:36:39 AM »

worth noting that New Labour was many things, but it wasn't what Tony Blair thinks it is now (i.e. a socially liberal version of Thatcherism). If anything it was the most naked form of populism we've ever seen the party go down, given it mainly consisted of focus grouped targets and catchy slogans that polled well with non-ideological types.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #549 on: November 15, 2019, 11:41:13 AM »

Some polls recently showing big Tory headline leads also have a near tie in their basic findings before likelihood to vote is taken to account. Clearly the promise to "get Brexit done" has solidified the Tory base and Labour needs to counter that in some way to get voters attention. The announcement on broadband is an excellent start there - more like that please Smiley

(some interesting polling evidence out recently, too, that adopting a pro "freedom of movement" line might not be the massive vote loser for Labour some have assumed - as so often, it depends on the FRAMING)
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