United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[afleitch]

I saw the hype rise up on twitter. Everyone needs to watch Neil eviscerate Sturgeon over the entire interview. Unfortunately, the SNP will survive because they got partisan loyalists these days who will stand firm with their identity of Scottish nationalism.

It's Andrew Neil. I wouldn't expect anything different. Also colour me shocked that partisan loyalty exists in politics.

[afleitch]

Here's what concerns me.

The idea that the 'Jewish community' has a disproportionate amount of influence is an anti-semitic trope and not worthy of time or effort. However the focus on anti-semitism in Labour is so intense as to effectively be disproportionate (and not connected to the communit), certainly in relation to Islamophobic comments/views held and expressed by not only by your garden variety gammon, but by increasingly Modi influenced Hindu nationalists. Or some of the continuing attacks on women, such as the deliberate targeting of Stella Creasy by pro-life hardliners.

This isn't a reflection of any perceived collateral the Jewish community has, but is more a reflection of the motivations of politicians and the press who quite frankly don't give a sh!t about dogwhistle anti-semitism (see Ed Miliband's dad 2015)

I'm also increasingly concerned at how 'online' discourse on the right is. Like the use of the term 'Marxist' being used unironically in a lobster daddy way, the celebration of Boris' moral failings and the over arching theme of trying to 'own' the remainers.

[afleitch]

A link on the Stella Creasy situation

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/police-move-on-abortion-group-targeting-stella-creasy

Currently pregnant she is being targeted by a variety of pro-life groups (some unsurprisingly US linked)for helping move Northern Ireland towards the rUK's not exactly liberal abortion legislation.

[afleitch]

A few points on Scotland last time.

The Tory gains, other than Stirling were not marginal. This is strongly indicative that they were 'won' before the campaign. It also makes them difficult to pick off this time.

The polls picked up a Labour surge but again missed the strength of it. Hence Labour's unexpected 'bawhair' gains from the SNP which were probably gained in the last few days. There was iirc a huge shift in 18-34 voting intentions during the campaign from SNP to Labour with no such shift in 55+ voters. These are easier regains for the SNP...on paper.

There was also a 're-sort' of No voters voting intentions continuing on from the 2016 Holyrood elections.
 

[afleitch]

Turns out that the BBC have yet to schedule a feature-length Neil interview with Johnson. It appears that everyone else signed up and were allotted slots on the assumption that everyone was one board. I don't like Corbyn and I don't like feeling bad for him,* but this is really serious, a potential breach of the BBC's commitment to balance and political impartiality. Negotiations are supposedly ongoing, but that is just not good enough: they now have to set a date and empty-chair Johnson if he doesn't show up. This is very disturbing.

_{*I also think Neil's style of interview does not do our democracy any favours.}

I agree that Andrew Neil trashing each leader in turn does no favours for democracy or journalism, but Sturgeon and Corbyn have did their turn, taken the heat including setting up narratives for the press and now it appears Boris and Swinson might not do it. As you say, that's going to have big consequences for the BBC if they hadn't actually got agreement for all four.

It's all very helpful for the new ONLINE tranche of Boris supporters who probably will love the fact he's dodged a bullet and 'bested' the BBC.

[afleitch]

YouGov data in a fun spreadsheet:

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=69D0560CC54123FE!1334&authkey=!AHUShvooX0LbK6c

[afleitch]

Ipsos-Mori for Scotland.

SNP 44% (+7)
CON 26% (-3)
LAB 16% (-11)
LD 11% (+4)
GRN 2% (+2)

[afleitch]

So the Tories are threatening to use the tools of government to enact retribution against unsympathetic news outlets. Very cool stuff.

Oh we're here now. It's arrived.

i had hope the UK would escape it, but there we are.

[afleitch]

Incident at London Bridge.

[afleitch]

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

[afleitch]

Is this a last minute Labour surge or not?

No.

https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1201953367611842560

That's if the polls are right of course.

[afleitch]

2017 polls got the movement right. It got the turnout wrong and kept adjusting this in favour of the Tories.

[afleitch]

Anecdote alert warning - there are now a few fairly reliable accounts of a few of the, utterly beloved by our media, LIFELONG LABOUR HEARTLAND ("red wall" in current parlance) voters who were going to make a HISTORIC EPOCHAL SWITCH to the Tories BECAUSE BORIS OVEN READY BREXIT getting cold feet at the last minute and actually sending their postal votes off with a cross for.......Labour. "I just couldn't do it" some have reportedly said

On this now almost hackneyed subject, the Graun has a typically awful - and cliche strewn - piece about Bishop Auckland. Written by somebody who popped up a few years ago with the then almost de rigeur line that LIFELONG LABOUR HEARTLAND voters were poised to switch to UKIP en masse for quite literally no other reason than Paul Nuttall (remember him?) having a scouse accent.

Equally unsurprisingly, they are one of those who get paid to grift about "towns".

It's the equivalent of the same Trump voters always being interviewed in Pennsylvania. A weird political fetishism of the white working class as the 'real voter'.

[afleitch]

TBF, Salisbury the town is a lot less strongly Conservative than Salisbury the constituency.

I know, but still makes you wonder why he was there.

Probably just for local press. And by local I mean rural Wilts. It might not be seat specific.

[afleitch]

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

That's also possible. Labour could theoretically be overstated.

[afleitch]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc either a large minority or an outright plurality of practicing Catholics in Great Britain today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish. They'd thus be doubly inclined against Brexit and shopkeeper-caste English nationalism.

It can vary. My local knowledge (Glasgow and Lanarkshire) doesn't suggest significantly higher levels of practicing Catholics who are Eastern European as compared to Irish descended and in my area; Tuscan or pre 1918 Polish-Lithuanian. Bear in mind the age and education of post 2004 EU migrants; they are more likely to have been non practicing anyway or indeed anecdotally, escaping creeping Catholic political authoritarianism intentionally.

In Scotland of course Catholic voters were the most pro Yes group and in 2015 moved from being the least likely to vote SNP in 2010 to the most (SNP support is highest amongst Catholics and Nones and lowest amongst Episcopalians (read English) ) Support fell back in 2017, but it fell back for Labour too. They are a key target group this time round.

[afleitch]

Still no postal vote through and I fly out on Monday

[afleitch]

Yes, there's been no surge in Corbyn's approval rating which was the canary in the coalmine last time.

Anyway a Scottish poll from YouGov. Changes on 2017

SNP 44% (+7)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Labour 15% (-12)
Lib Dem 12% (+5)
Greens 1% (+1)

[afleitch]

Johnson's approvals are also very poor for an incumbent PM, and the direction of travel is horrific. So this is a rather strange and curious situation.

You sure about that? BoJo's kept treading water between a small positive and negative, arguably very good for a polarizing time. Not as good as May's honeymoon, but the honeymoon is over for both at this comparitive time. Corbyn needs no introduction. Johnson's only good attribute is that he's a master at crafting a persona that gets people to like him.

Ipsos-MORI's today has him dropping to -20, down from +2 in like a month. That's not great.

It's not. But in that poll it's a reversion to the September figures. Though historically this far into his term he's almost as unpopular as Gordon Brown (who at least has now moved up place in the Crap Premier League)

Unfortunately for Corbyn, he's also the most unpopular opposition leader on record at this time in his leadership, lagging below Miliband who at this point was about to reach the end.

[afleitch]

Yes, there's been no surge in Corbyn's approval rating which was the canary in the coalmine last time.

Anyway a Scottish poll from YouGov. Changes on 2017

SNP 44% (+7)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Labour 15% (-12)
Lib Dem 12% (+5)
Greens 1% (+1)

Interestingly, the Scottish govt is underwater on every issue that was polled: -1 on economy, -4 on Justice, -8 on education, -12 on NHS. In every case, the SNP loses voters from it's 44% topline. Seems clear that Yes/No polarization is carrying the day here.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202863050434514946

Also, here are the changes with their last Scottish poll. I think it's rather important since such a dramatic Brexit drop points to it being the effect of candidates standing down, meaning that 6% is all in the highlands and borders which the Tories need to defend.

It's been that way for a while. Nationalists think everything is wonderful, Unionists think it's all crap. Whatever truth is in the middle. Also note that on 'Education and schools' over 65's with little experience of these services rate them poorly while those of an age to have school age children, don't. Such is boomer nihilism.

[afleitch]

Also, for non UK posters, the impact of what has happened on 'Jewish voters' will be electorally minimal and impact on at most, Finchley and Hendon, already Tory held and perhaps Bury South.

'Kashmiri family politics', which is of course an admittedly horrible euphemism for the interconnectedness of Muslim, Hindu and Sikh voting patterns as ever will have more potential electoral effect.

[afleitch]

Voted!

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203347824789856256

If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

This poll, if I'm reading it correctly has changes on the last poll, but the last poll (2-3 Dec) was taken at the same time as this poll (2-5 Dec), which makes this poll, depending on when the bulk of the data was collected, as old as four other polls already released.

[afleitch]

Tory 15pt lead with Opinium.

[afleitch]

Since 1951 only two Labour leaders have won general elections; Wilson, by appealing to moderates and Tories then governing a little left of that and Blair by appealing to moderates and Tories and governing not so much to the left.

The last transformative government, in terms of leaving a legacy and an imprint on society was Blairs. Only four PM's can claim that legacy since the war; Attlee, Wilson, Thatcher and Blair. Three of them Labour.

The solution is simple and obvious. But it's now two defeats away now.

(FWIW I don't include Macmillan as it was continuity 'war coalition/Butskellist.' Cameron is possible, constitutionally, but too early to tell.)