United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135986 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #50 on: November 16, 2019, 09:20:40 AM »

For reasons that genuinely escape me, the LibDems seem to have endorsed the same "permanent government surplus" plan that went down like a cup of cold sick when Liz Kendall put it forward in the 2015 Labour contest.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #51 on: November 16, 2019, 10:13:26 AM »

Its actually the first TV debate (a straight Johnson v Corbyn one) just this Tuesday (on ITV)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #52 on: November 16, 2019, 07:28:33 PM »

The polls showing the Tories on 44-45% are apparently saying some other weird and wonderful things, such as 90% of over-60s are going to vote. One also apparently has a massive (and unexplained) rise in Johnson's personal rating.

The constituency polls are also not that recent, in particular the Kensington one was taken before Gyimah's comments about Dent Coad - which do not appear to have gone down well locally.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #53 on: November 17, 2019, 08:48:16 AM »

I don't think that theory is supported by any of the evidence - polling, anecdotal, or otherwise. Most Labour Leavers care more about the NHS/austerity/etc. than they do about the EU, and those that don't are pretty tribal about hating the Tories. Corbyn was attacked in 2017 for being ambivalent about Brexit and had an approval rating pretty much the same as now; there hasn't been much to change those dynamics since.

The idea that this vote is a 'Brexit election' is, and always has been, more of a (Tory) slogan than an analysis. No election is dominated by a single issue. The media spent most of the past week and a half dwelling on candidate selection scandals, and the big policy items discussed have been immigration, Labour's broadband pledge, and the floods in the Northeast. Brexit's being discussed, sure, but it's not the defining issue some would like it to be.

Sky's coverage of the election is generally OK (and certainly better than the BBC's) but they lose important marks for simply headlining it all as "THE BREXIT ELECTION" - not even a qualifying question mark!
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #54 on: November 17, 2019, 11:35:43 AM »

McDonnell doesn't really want to be leader, and the party would likely want somebody a bit younger.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #55 on: November 17, 2019, 01:56:30 PM »

I know it's too early to discuss this, but if Corbyn were to resign after the election due to a bad Labour performance, who would be the likely candidates to replace him? I hear names like John McDonnell and Emily Thornberry but I obviously don't know what's the actual sentiment on the ground among Labour members and I'm curious.

The fact that Keir Starmer isn't leader is dumb. But for him to not replace Corbyn is simply unthinkable.

He has been very good on Brexit - whether he has all the needed skills to be leader is another question tho.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #56 on: November 18, 2019, 06:06:24 AM »

With just a week to go in 2017, Tories were still briefing journalists about how they were going to win all sorts of weird and wonderful Labour "heartland" seats - and some Labour people agreed with them.

Its easy to forget, with the benefit of hindsight, how utterly unexpected that exit poll was.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #57 on: November 19, 2019, 01:35:38 PM »

The latest YouGov - for some time one of the more favourable pollsters for the Tories - has them down 3 to 42 and Labour up 2 to 30 (their highest with this poll since the spring) Taken very recently too.

Just a blip? Possibly, but tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #58 on: November 19, 2019, 05:27:24 PM »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal

There can certainly be a pretty good argument that it stopped the Tories getting a majority in that election, with the consequences that we are all familiar with.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #59 on: November 19, 2019, 05:35:51 PM »

Anyway, the debate.

Given how far Corbyn was behind Johnson on most measures beforehand, I think he will be happy with basically a draw. And significantly more Tories think he did well than Labourites were impressed by Johnson.

Not a game changer in itself, but maybe evidence the Tories don't have it all sewn up yet.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #60 on: November 20, 2019, 08:00:55 AM »

tonight's debate may have some bearing on that (I'm not one of those who thinks they can never change anything - and tbh am surprised at those who do, given Cleggmania wasn't *that* long ago)

Cleggmania didn't change anything though. It gave Clegg a momentary blip but the overall effect on the election was actually fairly minimal. And that's when he was the clear winner over Brown and Cameron, whereas both Johnson and Corbyn are so bad at debating I'm not sure there can be a clear winner. And even if there is a decisive winner, there's still three weeks until the election, plenty of time for other shiny things to make people forget the debate even happened.

I am surprised Theresa May is running again.  Last few PMs seems to have retired from politics after they left the PM spot.

As I said in my predictions, her becoming the female Ted Heath would be such a perfect end to her story.
Why did Clegg do worse than Kennedy in seats?

The point is, he was likely to do a *lot* worse before the debates.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #61 on: November 20, 2019, 09:22:28 AM »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #62 on: November 20, 2019, 11:22:18 AM »

The vast majority of what I have seen post-debate seems to be more about the Tories' "Fact Checking" rather than anything that was actually said during. Is that broadly how it is going down overall, or just left wing bubble-ism?

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #63 on: November 20, 2019, 11:57:12 AM »

It seems to be at least as much "savvy" types inside the Westminster bubble assuring us that NO REAL <sic> PEOPLE WILL CARE about the Tories trickery, or indeed the debate itself.

(the latter emphasis seems to have become more evident as it becomes clear Corbyn did well, strangely)

While not completely ruling out that either event will make a difference, I'd say there's a difference between saying "No real people care" (which is obviously false) and "Nobody will remember or care that any of this happened in 3 weeks time" (which is a possibility).

Of course, its much more a comment on how a certain type of political "observer" sees things.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #64 on: November 20, 2019, 01:08:47 PM »

And one thing that is notable in this campaign - anecdotal, but agreed by quite a few people of varying persuasions - is how keen many of the public are to talk about literally anything *but* Brexit.

(and just a point about the debate viewing figures - it is now quite a bit easier to view these and other things on social media rather than simply the TV, compared to 2010)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #65 on: November 20, 2019, 01:15:31 PM »

Apparently some Jewish People were offended by how Corbyn pronounced "EpSHtein" in the Debate, allegedly in an attempt to make him sound more Jewish?

I have been following the story in question, and was genuinely not aware there was a "correct" and "incorrect" way to pronounce said name before last night - never mind that any particular one betrays AS tendencies Roll Eyes

If you go out of your way to pronounce Epstein with an "Sch" sound for the S, you're clearly going for a very Jewish pronunciation...but that's not necessarily anti-Semitic. It depends on context and what Epstein's preference was in life.

Indeed, such "careful" pronunciation is often an attempt to be "respectful" to the minority concerned rather than the opposite - its only because it is Corbyn that certain people are losing their s*** over it.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #66 on: November 22, 2019, 06:01:58 AM »

The decision by the likes of the FT and Independent to back Cameron over Miliband in 2015 is in retrospect one of the greatest acts of folly in recent times. A completely delusional, cosy mindset that if we could just get rid of this pesky interloper preaching DANGEROUS MARXISM - you know, like regulating the energy market - then things (both in the country and Labour party) would go back to where they were and we could all pretend that 2008 and everything that subsequently developed had never happened.

And people actually wonder why Corbyn supporters don't like our media?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #67 on: November 22, 2019, 10:08:10 AM »

And following on from my previous post, one of the best things that could be done to improve media coverage in this country is to fire THAT programme - and all involved with it - onto the surface of the sun.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #68 on: November 22, 2019, 11:41:03 AM »

This is an area where I strongly disagree - the centrist love of means testing and "targeting" everything is one of the least likeable things about them. Universal benefits and services are, other things being equal, good.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #69 on: November 22, 2019, 06:52:45 PM »

Swinson bombed, and anyone who actually watched it and disagrees is simply delusional.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #70 on: November 23, 2019, 06:06:04 AM »

Sheffield though. It may be a big safe Labour city, but it’s hardly a Manchester, or even a Leeds. It’s still a city that voted for Brexit, is still in many ways struggling with the decline of employment in the steel industry - and for all it has the students and stuff round Broomhill or Ecclesall, it’s also got places like Hillsborough or Attercliffe that are a good fit for that « northern working class left behind » type voter who we are told voted Brexit and are deserting Labour in droves. Not all big urban areas are alike (and if the tories are still cancer in south yorks there’s a reason for it of course)
It's not far off Leeds who barely voted to remain. It was pretty clear that the audience was heavily pro labour. With that being said I don't think there really is a point to debates or these type of events because everyone declares themselves the winner afterwards.

Generally true, but not universally so as the fall out from this one shows Wink
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #71 on: November 23, 2019, 07:32:37 PM »

Anybody who *really* believes the Tories are ahead by 47-28 probably shouldn't be allowed out unattended.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #72 on: November 24, 2019, 05:55:29 AM »

What do the Corbynites here think Maureen Lipman? What do the Labour who do not really like Corbyn think of her?

The same person who has "turned her back on Labour" on at least four occasions now? And cites AS (of course) but wouldn't vote for the party when it had a Jewish leader??
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #73 on: November 24, 2019, 09:12:51 AM »

Take out the fraudulent Opinium poll, and this weekend's surveys are very similar to the same point in 2017. Which does not mean history is bound to repeat itself, but maybe worth bearing in mind.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #74 on: November 24, 2019, 12:37:19 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2019, 05:07:44 PM by CumbrianLeftie »

Every election is different, but 2017 comparisons are often being distorted by false memory. A lot of people seem to recall that as an election in which the government started far, far ahead and in which its lead cracked and shrunk due to a sustained Labour surge that, bit by bit, took things to just below the wire on polling day. This is not what happened. What actually happened, is that both parties made substantial gains during the early weeks of the campaign as the third parties collapsed, but the Conservative lead remained stubbornly very high. Then, the Conservative manifesto was unveiled and it was a total disaster. Their lead immediately slumped, more than halving almost overnight in many polls. After that, things bounced around a bit during the last few weeks - there was some distinct movement towards Labour picked up after Corbyn's unexpectedly strong response to the terrorist atrocities, for instance, but that didn't all seem to last - and by polling day the general consensus was of a solid but not massive Conservative lead, with more firms giving them leads over 10pts than suggesting that it might be fairly close. This is why the exit poll was such a great shock to everyone.

The curious part is that we still don't know why the polls were so badly wrong in the end. We know what went wrong in 2015: a very tight race was expected, and so the firms all herded, afraid to put out anything that did not fit with that. But 2017 is a mystery: it is not as simple as 'higher than expected youth turnout' even if that must have been a factor. Conclusions to this? None, exactly. Other than to caution against drawing any conclusions from false memory.

That was something that gave me real hope of an upset, tbh - the media (and Blairite) consensus then was that his speech after that tragic event was electoral suicide, but it didn't turn out that way at all.

Having said that, on polling day I was still expecting a Tory majority somewhat bigger than in 1992....
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