United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135661 times)
DaWN
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« Reply #50 on: November 22, 2019, 10:57:13 AM »



This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
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DaWN
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« Reply #51 on: November 22, 2019, 01:04:13 PM »

This came through the door earlier. Now that's what I call a misleading bar chart.

Looks like the Greens are really gunning to turn this into a long-term target. I think a major reason for the Remain Alliance coming into place was so the Greens could get a few more of those. Anything other than third this time around would shock me of course, but who knows what'll happen in the future.(Although I suspect the boundary changes that need to happen eventually will screw them over in that endeavour)
How do they justify just blatant lies like that Remain graphic?

To be fair, it isn't a lie - that's the European election figures for Green+LD+any other Remain parties like CHUK (lol), or at least a close estimation of the numbers. What it is is exceptionally misleading but we've been seeing that a lot lately...
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DaWN
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« Reply #52 on: November 22, 2019, 04:09:38 PM »

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.
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DaWN
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« Reply #53 on: November 22, 2019, 04:37:59 PM »

And of course, filling an audience with those people definitely means the BBC is biased against Corbyn.
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DaWN
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« Reply #54 on: November 23, 2019, 07:51:15 AM »

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DaWN
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« Reply #55 on: November 23, 2019, 02:34:20 PM »

I think its becoming very clear that the pollsters don't have the tiniest bloody idea of what's going on apart from the fact the Tories are in the lead.
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DaWN
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« Reply #56 on: November 25, 2019, 07:09:39 AM »

The idea that the Lib Dems are only doing well with affluent Londoners is pretty disingenuous. They are clearly targeting a certain type of voter that fits that mould but they certainly exist across the country (being concentrated more in London and the SE, which is true, is not the same as just existing there) and give them a solid path to a seat total in the low-twenties, which was always the realistic goal (the idea they were going to do better than Clegg in 2010 was always fanciful). The path to 20 seats is probably as follows:

Hold 11 of 12 2017 seats (Aside from North Norfolk, all are varying degrees of safe apart from Eastbourne, which will be tough but Lloyd has a good shot of pulling it off)
Richmond Park
NE Fife
Cheltenham
St Albans
Winchester
Sheffield Hallam
Cheadle
Ceredigion
Hold Brecon & Radnorshire

The secondary targets any one of which can make up for a loss in Eastbourne or will just signify a pretty good night overall (no particular order but in general the easier ones are towards the top):
Hazel Grove
Guildford
Esher & Walton
Cambridge
Leeds NW
St Ives
Wells
Lewes
Cities of L&W
Kensington
Finchley & Golders Green
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Wokingham
Totnes (?)
Romford (ha just kidding)

So a net gain compared to dissolution is far from impossible, although far from guaranteed either of course. I'd be happy with 20; 10-15 would be very disappointing, 15-20 I'd be content with and 20-25 I'd be pretty ecstatic with. Any higher than that is unrealistic.

Of course, the other main goal the Lib Dems have this election is something they failed miserably at in 2017: to get as many targets as possible for 2024. Even if they don't win Cities of L&W or Kensington or Wokingham or Esher & Walton, getting them close enough to be realistic targets next time is a good way of getting the party back on the road to 2005/2010 levels within three elections or so.
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DaWN
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« Reply #57 on: November 25, 2019, 09:30:41 AM »

I seriously don't see much of a chance of the Lib Dems losing Remainy, middle class seats like Edinburgh West and Oxford West & Abingdon while their national vote share is more than doubled from 2017. That's really not how these things work. Talk of Carshalton baffles me as well - if Brake could survive the last two elections, I really see no reason why he'd lose this time around. With his leadership a distant memory, Farron probably won't struggle either, and people are making a mistake if they're assuming Westmoreland is a typical rural seat.

The vulnerable Lib Dem seats right now are North Norfolk and Eastbourne - any further than that and we're in meltdown territory that polling at the moment isn't backing up.
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DaWN
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Posts: 1,370
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« Reply #58 on: November 25, 2019, 12:58:41 PM »

I genuinely cannot tell what is supposed to be funny about that.
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DaWN
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« Reply #59 on: November 25, 2019, 01:16:41 PM »

I genuinely cannot tell what is supposed to be funny about that.

Loans to rent? That is absolutely the worst idea ever. And it's so LibDem. Let's help people by further burying them under our Thatcherite delusion. Have any LibDems, like, ever met a poor person before?

I wasn't aware bad policies automatically created comedy. The Labour manifesto would be in line for a comedy award if that were the case. And there's a chance of that actually being implemented, unlike this, which is a dumb, vague soundbite and nothing more.
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DaWN
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« Reply #60 on: November 25, 2019, 01:22:17 PM »



FTR, that fact that we are arguing about Labour and Lib-Dem proposals probably means that 2017 won't be repeated as far as 'dementia tax' and 'police cuts' are concerned. This unfortunately means the Tories likely win this media cycle, since May set the bar incredibly low manifesto-wise.

It was always unlikely. They might be idiots over at the Tory Party HQ but nobody is quite that stupid. It's been fairly clear it was going to be relatively uncontroversial this time. Relatively being the operative word of course, its still dreck from cover to cover.
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DaWN
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« Reply #61 on: November 25, 2019, 04:12:17 PM »



Ouch. Someone needs to make an emergency delivery of ointment to Edinburgh.
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DaWN
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Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


« Reply #62 on: November 27, 2019, 06:25:51 AM »



Fascinating thread on Tory prospects in the Home Counties. I'm not sure I think there's any prospects for more than one or two seat flips, but it certainly backs up what cp has been saying about his own seat on this forum. Perhaps we're in for an election where the Tories win a bunch of Labour heartlands in the North but lose Esher? Probably not, but interesting nonetheless.
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DaWN
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« Reply #63 on: November 27, 2019, 03:42:08 PM »

So this YouGov model is being released in 80 minutes or so... given we've seen the Best For Britain model as well today which, to put it politely, is a complete crock of sh!t, is there much we should be looking at with this? It'll obviously be better than that and it was relatively accurate last time iirc, but I'm not sure anyone should be drawing the conclusions from it that they inevitably will.
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DaWN
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« Reply #64 on: November 27, 2019, 04:36:08 PM »

Another ComRes: Con 41, Lab 34, LDem 13, BP 5, Others 7

Fieldwork 25th and 26th.

What is the trend in that poll?

CON -1
LAB +2
LD +1
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DaWN
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« Reply #65 on: November 27, 2019, 05:05:07 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.
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DaWN
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« Reply #66 on: November 27, 2019, 05:46:21 PM »

On closer inspection it is indeed bullsh!t, but still very potentially damaging bullsh!t. The Lib Dems need to draw up a strategy to deal with the fallout from this because its something a lot of non-political people will see. There's now a public document that makes the party look irrelevant. 20 seats is looking further and further away.

Depressing stuff. Think I'll just give up on British politics after this election. Zero interest in following the Boris & Corbyn Show.
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DaWN
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« Reply #67 on: November 27, 2019, 06:01:34 PM »

Con 359 (+42)
Lab 211 (-51)
Lib Dem 13 (+1)
SNP 43 (+8)
Plaid 4 (-)
Green 1 (-)
Speaker 1 (-)

Game over I think. It might not be accurate but the two main parties will use the data to squeeze mercilessly. The Hard Brexit duopoly wins.

Well that is concerning. The Tories would have to seriously underperform for there to be a chance of stopping BoJo's hard Brexit (and like it or not, that can only happen is Labour overperforms. I'm not going to count on polls underestimating Labour again (if anything, I'm afraid they overcorrected from 2017 and might now be overestimating it), but I guess there is still hope of more LibDem voters coming home between now and December 12 (the very thing you fear, but which is the only hope or stopping BoJo). We shall see.

I'm not going to engage in a big argument over this again as neither of us are going to change our minds, but I really need to make it clear that I don't care whether we get Boris's Hard Brexit or Corbyn's Hard Brexit. They're exactly the same on the only issue that really matters and I don't care which of them wins. Telling me I shouldn't think this way is not going to make me feel any better about the direction of my country so if I can ask politely for everyone to not do it that would be great.
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DaWN
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« Reply #68 on: November 28, 2019, 12:39:27 PM »

If these polls bear fruit, this is one lesson to my fellow Americans in this thread: BERNIE CANNOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES BE THE NOMINEE.


The more sensible lesson to draw would be that comparing British and American politics is a pointless and fruitless endeavour.
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DaWN
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« Reply #69 on: December 01, 2019, 10:43:04 AM »

Richard Burgon is the perfect representation of today's Labour Party, I'm not sure why anyone is surprised.
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DaWN
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« Reply #70 on: December 01, 2019, 03:50:07 PM »

The Lib Dems have actually been fairly stable for the last two weeks or so at 15% or a few points south of that - I think the Labour increase might be more due to undecideds and possible a few soft Tories swinging their way. Whether that will be enough for 2017-redux who's to say. Mostly this time I think the Lib Dems do have a higher floor than last time though because of Brexit, and it looks like they might have reached it. 'Might' definitely being the operative word there.

A quick thought on the polling atm (from the general discussion thread)
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DaWN
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« Reply #71 on: December 01, 2019, 05:23:39 PM »

2. Corbyn hating was, if anything, more intense than it has been this year. Seriously, I was shocked at how vitriolic the rhetoric was; I sort of assumed it had gained volume and intensity over the past 2 years.

Even though I'm here now? 😁
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DaWN
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« Reply #72 on: December 03, 2019, 01:11:50 PM »

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

Which is why her winning easily will be the most pleasurable of the numerous wonderful disappointments you will endure on election night
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DaWN
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« Reply #73 on: December 03, 2019, 02:03:17 PM »

Honestly I'd love to see a Labour minority that needs Lib Dem support just to see the reaction of anomalocaris and other dimmer Corbynites. I wonder if it will be "You know, on reflection, I've never minded the Lib Dems all that much..." or "CLASS TRAITOR CORBYN WORKING WITH THE LIB DEMS!" Either way it will be hilarious.

Regarding Swindon, she is inevitable herself, but if the Lib Dems perform badly then I doubt she'll be leader for long. Personally, I think 20 seats or more she's fine, 15-20 she'll be ok in the short term but probably won't serve the whole parliament, under 15 she's finished.
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DaWN
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« Reply #74 on: December 03, 2019, 05:43:39 PM »

Eh, what I will say is that I have lived in the UK for two periods in my life. For a year in Sheffield around the time that David Cameron came to power, and for a longer period in London - but with lots of travel to Hull and to various towns in the South Coast - around the time of the referendum.

I remember, not that long ago, walking down Bargate, which is the main shopping street in Southamption (not a rich place, but not an especially poor one in the grand scheme of things) at about 7 in the morning. In every single doorway on the road, there was a rough sleeper; which to me as a naïve little Swiss kid seemed like a shocking, almost unreal level of poverty so visibly, viscerally on display.

Anyway point being, the level of damage that the Tories have done to the UK's social fabric in the last 9 years is genuinely heartbraking to see from the outside - in terms of the utterly real, but utterly pointless human cost; of the lives ruined; of the hopes destroyed and the pesssimism that has settled over the country as a whole. And in that respect, looking at what such a radical a Tory government as the one that seems to be on the cusp of taking power would actually do, is absolutely terrifying in terms of the actual human consequences it would have. So in that respect, I would be delighted for the Lib Dems to prop up any Labour government; just because it would mean them no longer being in power. And what Britain as a society, as real people whose real lives have been made worse, and are going to continue being made worse, by this Conservative government, really needs is the Tories no longer being in power.

Of course, that is a thoroughly reasonable line to take and one I can hardly disagree with. I didn't mean people like you though, I was talking more about the unhinged nuts. Fwiw, from the opposite perspective of a Lib Dem supporter who hates Corbyn's Labour, I'd certainly support such an agreement.
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