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March 05, 2021, 12:36:58 PM

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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 95713 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #350 on: November 07, 2019, 03:09:36 PM »



I guess survation is releasing one  of these every day.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #351 on: November 07, 2019, 07:30:15 PM »



I guess survation is releasing one  of these every day.

Was this one commissioned by anybody?

Because election spending restrictions have now kicked in, and polls cost a bit of money......
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #352 on: November 07, 2019, 07:55:05 PM »


The Economist.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #353 on: November 08, 2019, 09:07:06 AM »

YouGov regional polls. I'm not sure if these are usual subsample breakdowns or individual polls for each region. In general, the trend is Tories up in North, Lib dems up in South.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #354 on: November 08, 2019, 09:20:20 AM »

They are aggregates from subsamples of pre-campaign polling - in other words, worthless.
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jaichind
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« Reply #355 on: November 08, 2019, 11:02:15 AM »

https://order-order.com/2019/11/08/yougov-poll-11500-voters-puts-tories-14-ahead-labour/



Latest yougov poll with massive 11K plus respondents has a shift from LAB to LDEM

CON   36 (-)
LAB    22 (-3)
LDEM 19 (+2)
BXP   12 (+1)
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #356 on: November 08, 2019, 11:44:24 AM »

Its not their "latest" poll, as mentioned above most of the data is literally weeks old.

(and why are you using Staines as a source anyway?)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #357 on: November 08, 2019, 12:03:27 PM »

We do, however, now have an actual new poll. From Panelbase. And it reads thus: Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3

This, for the record, would equate to a 4pt swing from 2017.
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jaichind
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« Reply #358 on: November 08, 2019, 12:11:44 PM »

Its not their "latest" poll, as mentioned above most of the data is literally weeks old.

(and why are you using Staines as a source anyway?)

Ah .. thanks for pointing that out.  My mistake
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cp
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« Reply #359 on: November 08, 2019, 12:16:31 PM »

We do, however, now have an actual new poll. From Panelbase. And it reads thus: Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3

This, for the record, would equate to a 4pt swing from 2017.

Basically static with what they found the previous week, too. Overall not great news for anyone but the Tories. Lab in the 30s is too low to prevent a good number of losses. LD at 15 won't make much progress on what they have now. BP taking only 8% is about half of what they ought to expect.

I do wonder if the Brexit Party is deliberately holding its fire until Farage's self-imposed deadline for a pact with Johnson (next Friday) expires, though. If so, and Farage spends the subsequent 4 weeks training both barrels on Johnson, there's the potential to shift the numbers quite significantly.


Its not their "latest" poll, as mentioned above most of the data is literally weeks old.

(and why are you using Staines as a source anyway?)

Ah .. thanks for pointing that out.  My mistake

No need to apologize. Journos who should know better and every Russian pornbot twitter account is spreading the poll like mad. Rather unfortunate testament to people's media savvy these days.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #360 on: November 08, 2019, 12:22:43 PM »

We do, however, now have an actual new poll. From Panelbase. And it reads thus: Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3

This, for the record, would equate to a 4pt swing from 2017.

Labour and LibDems up 1 since a week ago, BxP down 1.
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jaichind
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« Reply #361 on: November 08, 2019, 12:23:50 PM »

I am wondering why the CON want to block the LDEM from being in the debates.  I would think the CON strategy should be to lower the LAB vote no matter how and what.  Even if the LAB vote does not go CON but goes to LDEM or BXP that is fine because if the LAB vote is down and down a lot, seats will show up for the CON.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #362 on: November 08, 2019, 12:28:03 PM »

I am wondering why the CON want to block the LDEM from being in the debates.  I would think the CON strategy should be to lower the LAB vote no matter how and what.  Even if the LAB vote does not go CON but goes to LDEM or BXP that is fine because if the LAB vote is down and down a lot, seats will show up for the CON.

Yep, Con strategy should be to be throwing as many softballs and Swinson as possible. Sure, they may lose seats in the south when the oranges pick up steam, but it will more than pay off in the north. Basically the Harper strategy back when the NDP was a serious possibility: force Lib voters to pick NDP or Con, and more seats will pick Con. Swinson is no way as radical as the NDP except in the Brexit issue, so it's in the Tories interest to construct a dichotomy between their leave and the LD Remain, in an attempt to force Lab voters to pick a side.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #363 on: November 08, 2019, 12:39:18 PM »

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #364 on: November 08, 2019, 12:56:24 PM »

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off. So establishing the LibDems as a credible alternative for centre-right voters would presumably be quite risky. A post-boomer two party system with Labour and the LibDems as the main parties and the Tories stuck in 3rd place with 20-23% of the vote must be their ultimate nightmare scenario.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #365 on: November 08, 2019, 01:05:20 PM »

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off.

I remember there was a debate about this point back in 2015 after the Tories won. There is quite a bit of evidence to suggest that at least in Britain people do generally become more conservative as they age. And considering that the UK is a aging society, perhaps the future is not so gloomy for the Conservatives..

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910
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Cassius
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« Reply #366 on: November 08, 2019, 01:05:54 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 01:11:46 PM by Cassius »

The thing is though, every seat lost to the Lib Dems means that the Tories need to gain another seat from somewhere else to make up for it. At the moment, the Tories need to gain six seats  over their 2017 performance if they’re to get a working majority of just one seat (if we exclude the Speaker and a minimum of five abstentionist Shinners from the total Parliamentary tally), and that’s if they hold on to every single seat they currently possess, which seems unlikely. If we assume the Conservatives will lose a minimum of six seats, which may be being generous, in Scotland to the SNP, they’ll need twelve gains. There are plenty of Tory seats that are currently fairly vulnerable to the Lib Dems: Richmond Park, Brecon and Radnorshire (ignoring the change of allegiance resulting from the by election), Cheltenham and St Ives are some examples of seats where the Lib Dems were competitive in the last election. Moreover, whilst constituency polling should always be treated with a Carthaginian field full of salt, if those polls from Wokingham, Esher and South Cambridgeshire are on the money then there clearly previously safe Tory seats that the Lib Dems have a chance of snatching as well as their traditional marginals.

So, say the Tories lose ten to fifteen seats  to the Lib Dems (net of a potential Tory gain in North Norfolk), they’re going to have to find around twenty five gains from Labour (because they’re not making gains from the SNP, Plaid or the Greens at this election) in order to win a majority of one. Now I know there’s a meme about how the Tories are going to win scores of ‘northern’ (which under this particular definition seems to be any Labour seat north of Oxford and west of Bristol) seats from Labour as hardy white workin’ class battlers defect to the party in droves over Labour’s supposed perfidy re the EU referendum; the thing is, I’ll believe it when I see it. Media pundits and psephologists have been predicting this for years, either in the form of Tory or, earlier on, UKIP gains, and thus far it has barely transpired. The Tories did get enormous swings in many traditionally Labour constituencies last time round, but even then, in the election where they won more votes than in any since 1983, they still came up short, often by comfortable margins (as I understand it they only made six gains from Labour, at least two of which were partially helped by extremely lacklustre Labour incumbents).

Now, if the current state of the polls does hold and Labour do lose 10% of the vote nationwide, whilst the Tories hold at about 40%, then the psephologists dream of realigning British politics along American lines might, finally, come true. But that cannot be counted upon, and I think even in that scenario a lot of traditional Welsh, Midland and Northern Labour seats might prove stickier than one would imagine. This of course ignores the possibility that the Tories might lose additional seats to Labour (Chingford for instance), even if the result ends up being Tories at 40, Labour at 30. Therefore, if the Tories want to win a majority, it’s vital that they minimise their losses to the Lib Dems, in order to make a majority less reliant upon uncertain gains in Labour heartlands. This can best be done by a mixture of denying Swinson publicity and kicking the crap out of her and her party every time her tin-whistle of a voice box does manage to break through.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #367 on: November 08, 2019, 01:16:08 PM »

Now I know there’s a meme about how the Tories are going to win scores of ‘northern’ (which under this particular definition seems to be any Labour seat north of Oxford and west of Bristol)

Cheesy
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #368 on: November 08, 2019, 01:25:32 PM »

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off.

I remember there was a debate about this point back in 2015 after the Tories won. There is quite a bit of evidence to suggest that at least in Britain people do generally become more conservative as they age. And considering that the UK is a aging society, perhaps the future is not so gloomy for the Conservatives..

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910

But at present the Tories are *unusually* reliant on older voters, and there are at least some reasons to think the present extreme pro-Tory lean of "boomers" is actually down to specific non-replicable factors which won't be entirely matched in the future simply by the next generations becoming more right wing as they age.

For a start the print media in this country (massively pro-Tory) likely has a limited shelf life in its present form.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #369 on: November 08, 2019, 01:38:03 PM »

It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.
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cp
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« Reply #370 on: November 08, 2019, 01:54:55 PM »


[snip]

This can best be done by a mixture of denying Swinson publicity and kicking the crap out of her and her party every time her tin-whistle of a voice box does manage to break through.

Rude.

It is pretty clear that unless they change something major and fairly soon* that we will start to see, and maybe this will even occur soon as in a decade, a major structural fall in Conservative support; something akin to the declines suffered by the Cold War People's Parties in German-speaking countries. Or, for that matter, similar to the decline in turnouts seen here as the Wartime Generation started to depart in the 1990s.

It is true that people become more conservative as they grow older, but this does not mean that they will automatically become more likely to vote for the Conservative Party. This was not the case with earlier generations, particularly. It has been with older people recently for very specific material factors which cannot and will not be replicated: teachers will not be retiring to golden handshakes and final salary pensions, for instance. That's before we consider the property issues.

Of course this will play no role in the present election.

*Which can hardly be ruled out: this is British politics.

Maaaaybe. The material reasons you allude to - fraying social services, inability to get out of (student) debt or to save or get on the property ladder - are already weighing pretty heavily on most every voter under 40. For those who have an elderly parent to care for, the Tories' NHS policy for the past 10 years has been a double whammy. I can see the Tories coming up conspicuously, and fatally, short on election day not because of any one major factor but because of a widespread anemia in their <40 vote. Sort of like the generational equivalent of the Dems 2016 white/rural vote in the Midwest.   
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #371 on: November 08, 2019, 02:16:07 PM »

There will always be a political left and a political right, if one tent on one side of the gap vanishes another takes it's place. That is the law of competitive politics. People have been predicting since the 70s that left-leaning strength with the youth with transform into a permanent advantage in 'X' country. Well, turns out old people are a renewable resource.

But how are old people a renewable resource? Two ways. The first is turnout, when you are younger you are more likely to vote if you are an activist. The self-constructed barriers to entry are higher when one is 18 than when one is 60. This leads to a predictable turnout curve in every non-mandatory election anywhere, the youth will always vote less then the eldarly, and the sample of the youth that is voting are those with a higher political interest. As one gets older, the barriers lower and the 'quiet' voters enter the pool, allowing parties to survive with only minimal reference to the activist part. The second way is that ideologies and issues change, and parties follow their voters. If the general electorate has reached a consensus on a issue, then parties ride or die. New issues rise up, the parties battle over them, and when victory occurs the other convert. When one 'greys' the issues that you fought for in your youth will no longer drive the great battles of govt, and new issues that you always held opinions on may align said voter to another party.

For example, one can make the argument that Brexit is this type of issue. Tories can't win long term on stuff like the NHS, May got eviscerated when she tried that platform last time. But the EU and Brexit have been long term issues and those entering the 'grey-zone' are happy to fight for it. I'll make a  bet now that Boris's tory platform will be relatively moderate compared to those  past, except the most frequent keyword will be Brexit. In part this is because  of his ideological flexibility, in part because the 'greys' he wants to win from post-industrial labour would be put off if he did anything other than carry the brexit flag. In 20 years, theres a good chance  Brexit won't be the big issue, something new will come up for the voters to fight over. That's life.
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #372 on: November 08, 2019, 02:30:59 PM »

What sort of result for Labour would force Corbyn out? Or is his support too solid at this point among party loyalists to be harmed by one poor election?
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cp
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« Reply #373 on: November 08, 2019, 03:33:39 PM »

2017 wasn't a win, but it wasn't a bad election for Labour (as far as not winning it goes): they gained seats and votes, they severely hampered their principal opponents, defied expectations all around.

A 2019 loss would be something much more unambiguous. Corbyn would likely not be able to last until the subsequent election. The flip side of this, of course, is that anything but a total loss (i.e. Tory majority) likely makes him PM.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #374 on: November 08, 2019, 03:39:34 PM »

Corbyn is 70; he's probably gone by 2024 regardless. Whether he becomes PM in a hung Parliament remains to be seen - convention is that the incumbent PM stays on until he resigns or is ousted via losing a confidence vote.
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