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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 90573 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #325 on: November 06, 2019, 08:10:58 pm »



Sad

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #326 on: November 07, 2019, 03:06:43 am »



Consistent with my big post here on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.
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cp
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« Reply #327 on: November 07, 2019, 03:27:51 am »



Consistent with my big post here on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.

Yay a poll from my constituency! Totally agree that E&W falls into 'slice' territory. So far I've received only Lib Dem literature. Truth be told, the Lib Dems will have to get lucky if they want to take the seat: a Tory implosion AND mass tactical voting by Lab. Not impossible, but will need a lot of work to make happen.
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Blair
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« Reply #328 on: November 07, 2019, 06:44:20 am »



Consistent with my big post here on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.

Yay a poll from my constituency! Totally agree that E&W falls into 'slice' territory. So far I've received only Lib Dem literature. Truth be told, the Lib Dems will have to get lucky if they want to take the seat: a Tory implosion AND mass tactical voting by Lab. Not impossible, but will need a lot of work to make happen.

are you gonna vote Lib Dem?
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #329 on: November 07, 2019, 06:52:05 am »



Sad

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'

There is no actual evidence this is planned, its a totally unsourced rumour.
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DaWN
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« Reply #330 on: November 07, 2019, 06:56:32 am »



Sad

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'

There is no actual evidence this is planned, its a totally unsourced rumour.

And even if it was going to happen, it wouldn't make the tiniest bit of difference to the result
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DaWN
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« Reply #331 on: November 07, 2019, 07:02:01 am »

Also, the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have entered into a Remain alliance, which involves standing down in a number of seats. And of course, one of the seats the Lib Dems have chosen to stand down in is mine. Terrific. I'm not huge on voting Green but I can at least stomach it unlike everyone else so that's what I'll be doing.

I doubt this alliance will shift a single seat in the end.
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afleitch
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« Reply #332 on: November 07, 2019, 07:32:59 am »

Quick tally up of the constituency polls.  Tories are down 12, Labour down 15, Lib Dems up 15, Brexit at 8 and Greens at 2.

In terms of % rise and fall based on 2017 this gives C35 L26 LD19 B9 G7, so it's not actually far off the national polls.

What it suggests is that there's a some reassortment underway which could disproportionately help the Lib Dems. Or these polls might just be sh!t.



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Blair
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« Reply #333 on: November 07, 2019, 07:33:34 am »

Also, the Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid have entered into a Remain alliance, which involves standing down in a number of seats. And of course, one of the seats the Lib Dems have chosen to stand down in is mine. Terrific. I'm not huge on voting Green but I can at least stomach it unlike everyone else so that's what I'll be doing.

I doubt this alliance will shift a single seat in the end.

For some of the seats it actually benefits Labour- for example in Exeter the Lib Dems aren't running & in Bermondsey the Greens aren't running.

If I was a Labour MP I'd be worried about losing remainy votes to the Lib Dems & low info/anti-politics votes to the Green- if you remove one of the two they're just as likely to float back to Labour as one of the rivals.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #334 on: November 07, 2019, 07:52:02 am »

Why are the Greens standing Molly Scott Cato, one of their bigger names, in Stroud? Grudge against Drew?
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #335 on: November 07, 2019, 08:10:23 am »

Why are the Greens standing Molly Scott Cato, one of their bigger names, in Stroud? Grudge against Drew?

She is local to that area, isn't she?

But also Stroud saw one of the earliest ever "Green surges" (three decades ago now) and remains something of an iconic place in the party's mindset even though they have never really done well there in GEs.
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cp
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« Reply #336 on: November 07, 2019, 09:20:25 am »



Consistent with my big post here on how the best place for Swinson's Lib-Dems in not just London but perhaps the entire country this cycle could be the wealthiest and whitest slice of london, a slice that extends outwards into Raab's seat.

Yay a poll from my constituency! Totally agree that E&W falls into 'slice' territory. So far I've received only Lib Dem literature. Truth be told, the Lib Dems will have to get lucky if they want to take the seat: a Tory implosion AND mass tactical voting by Lab. Not impossible, but will need a lot of work to make happen.

are you gonna vote Lib Dem?

Possibly. I'll see how the polls are looking closer to the day. If the Lib Dems are clearly in third and there's no local evidence that the Tories are flailing, I'll vote Labour. If there's a chance of knocking off Raab, tho, of course I'll take it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #337 on: November 07, 2019, 10:01:57 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2019, 04:20:02 pm by Austere Religious Scholar »

[broken images]

Here's the full list of 'electoral pact' seats negotiated between the remain alliance.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #338 on: November 07, 2019, 10:47:18 am »
« Edited: November 07, 2019, 10:57:47 am by Oryxslayer »



Full map of the Remain Alliance. I suspect it contains a lot of the LDs main defense and top targets, Notable missing seats:

-St Albans
-Cities of London and Westminster
-Putney
-Kingston and Surbiton
-Cambridge
-Carshalton and Wallington
-Ceredigion still remains a LD/PC grudge match

-Eastbourne remains a peculiar seat for both the LDs and 'their' incumbent.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #339 on: November 07, 2019, 11:00:09 am »



Full map of the Remain Alliance. I suspect it contains a lot of the LDs main defense and top targets, Notable missing seats:

-St Albans
-Cities of London and Westminster
-Putney
-Kingston and Surbiton
-Cambridge
-Carshalton and Wallington
-Ceredigion still remains a LD/PC grudge match

-Eastbourne remains a peculiar seat for both the LDs and 'their' incumbent.

Other than Cambridge (and Ceredigion), I find it strange that the Greens weren't willing to stand aside in any of these. I understand Cambridge because it should be a relatively strong seat for them.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #340 on: November 07, 2019, 11:07:01 am »

Lib Dems and Plaid stepping down in the Vale of Glamorgen will probably be a lot more beneficial to Lavour than the Greens. Scrap what I said about Stroud, that truly is the weirdest part of this alliance - the Greens got less than 1% of the vote last election! I guess the Welsh Greens wanted a token run, and it's not like there are many great targets for them, but still very funny.

I imagine some of the obvious omissions are due to Eurosceptic candidates e.g. St Ives, Eastbourne or friendly incumbents (Norwich South? Sheffield Central?). Or for that matter obstinate local parties, but you'd have to be on the ground to find out what's going on there.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #341 on: November 07, 2019, 11:09:24 am »

Lib Dems and Plaid stepping down in the Vale of Glamorgen will probably be a lot more beneficial to Lavour than the Greens. Scrap what I said about Stroud, that truly is the weirdest part of this alliance - the Greens got less than 1% of the vote last election! I guess the Welsh Greens wanted a token run, and it's not like there are many great targets for them, but still very funny.

I imagine some of the obvious omissions are due to Eurosceptic candidates e.g. St Ives, Eastbourne or friendly incumbents (Norwich South? Sheffield Central?). Or for that matter obstinate local parties, but you'd have to be on the ground to find out what's going on there.

That's the problem when the Greens are only relevant in maybe 5 seats nationwide but want to be seen as an equal partner in the alliance.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #342 on: November 07, 2019, 11:26:06 am »

True. Another issue is a lot of the Green "surge" was based around a Lib Dem collapse amongst certain sections of the population - students and bobos - that they had cultivated in the Blair years. This means a lot of seats that have seemingly healthy Green vote-shares have Lib Dem histories and latent Lib Dem local machinery and ambitious personnel who don't feel like standing down because central office has made a deal with Caroline Lucas. (Remember, a key part of the Lib Dem appeal is they are the LOCAL party, whose branches theoretically act as autonomous representatives). The only seats the with prior LD history that  have effectively been ceded to Greens, at first glance, are the Isle of Wight (where the local Green is a notable) and Bristol West. Other seats where the Greens have scored highly in 2015 or had good local results since - Sheffield Central, Norwich South, Solihull, Oxford East etc - all are not included in the alliance, and not coincidentally have had good LD results in the past.
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cp
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« Reply #343 on: November 07, 2019, 11:46:23 am »

The journalist Lewis Goodall just did a good twitter thread on this.

tl;dr without Labour involved, Remain Alliance strategic voting is a lot trickier.

It seems to me a clever tactic for the LD's might be to stand down 'for the Greens' in English seats where the Labour candidate is obviously better positioned to win. With the Green's lack of ground game, money, or incumbency, there's a decent chance many of the erstwhile Lib Dem voters would end up voting Labour anyway.
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DaWN
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« Reply #344 on: November 07, 2019, 12:27:07 pm »

The purpose of this alliance isn't really to win seats (aside from Brighton and some of the Tory-LD contests) - its to prevent Lib Dem activists and money from being funnelled into unwinnable seats and to make sure the Greens keep as many deposits as possible. You'll notice there hasn't been any stand-downs in Lab-LD contests, probably because they're well aware that a large number of Green voters next choice is Labour.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #345 on: November 07, 2019, 01:01:21 pm »

Godsiff to stand as an independent at Hall Green doubtless on a Save Sparkbrook From Sodomy ticket, because we live in Hell.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #346 on: November 07, 2019, 01:07:25 pm »

Godsiff to stand as an independent at Hall Green doubtless on a Save Sparkbrook From Sodomy ticket, because we live in Hell.

Whats his chances? Respect got 25% there back in 2005...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #347 on: November 07, 2019, 01:22:12 pm »

Godsiff to stand as an independent at Hall Green doubtless on a Save Sparkbrook From Sodomy ticket, because we live in Hell.

Whats his chances? Respect got 25% there back in 2005...

He isn't personally popular at all (he's a bloody awful lazy MP from absolutely any way you look at it: does no work in the House, does no work in his constituency...) so it would be nice to say 'none whatsoever', but that issue is extremely toxic. So first thing to do will be to see who the Labour candidate is before speculating further. Of course the issue is not 'live' in parts of the constituency, important not to ignore that.

He will be motivated to cross the 5% line as he's a mercenary toad - one of those retired trade unionists who treat being an MP as part of their pension package - and five hundred quid is five hundred quid.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #348 on: November 07, 2019, 02:02:36 pm »



y i k e s
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #349 on: November 07, 2019, 02:14:32 pm »



y i k e s

Speaking of which, what's Salma Yaqoob up to these days? Is she going to run somewhere?
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