United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[afleitch]

Holding up US drug, food, safety standards and having to deal with Trump as an immanent, amorphous danger as Boris attempts a Trumpian style disinformation campaign, might be a good move by Labour actually.

Because the Tories can't deny it would absolutely not happen. Even if on paper it probably wouldn't be as bad.

[c r a b c a k e]

Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Williamson, Hepburn and Godsiff all rejected as candidates by the NEC.

[Heat]

Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.

I believe he's only resigned as Welsh Secretary and still intends to stand in the election.

[Cassius]

Alun Cairns, Welsh Secretary resigns as an MP for his role in squashing a rape trial.

His seat, the Vale of Glamorgen, is a bellwether that contains the working-class industrial resort town of Barry as well as more Tory inclined villages.

I believe he's only resigned as Welsh Secretary and still intends to stand in the election.

He wasn’t involved in collapsing the rape trial - he’s resigned because he wasn’t clear regarding how soon he knew about the individual in question’s involvement in collapsing the rape trial.

As I expected though, the avalanche of embarrassing trivia that will likely bury the Tories chances of winning a majority has begun.

[CumbrianLeftie]

Williamson, Hepburn and Godsiff all rejected as candidates by the NEC.

Excellent news

Of course the first named will attract the usual cranks in his support - its actually a very good way of telling who on the Labour left is actually serious about getting and using power, and who aren't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Nick Brown was extremely insistent on Godsiff getting the heave-ho, and, well, it's hard not to respond to that detail with a cackle.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192142522782539776

[306]

Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?

She may have had enough: it's been eighteen years and the political atmosphere is increasingly ghoulish. As for the constituency... it is the most singular constituency in Northern Ireland, so who knows.

[Oryxslayer]

Bad news: Lady Sylvia Hermon is retiring.

Perhaps she thinks she won't win after the DUP gave her a close scare last time around. Any chance for someone other than the DUP (maybe the Alliance if they can get the Greens to stand down, or vice versa?) to win the seat?

There was rumors today that Upper Bann would be vacated by the expected Carla Lockhart, and replaced with DUP leader Arlene Foster. With North  Down now open and a 'gimmi' pickup for the DUP, at least on paper, Foster probably goes there if those rumors  had any leg to them.

[Blair]

Apparently Nick Brown was extremely insistent on Godsiff getting the heave-ho, and, well, it's hard not to respond to that detail with a cackle.

The sun is out and so am I.

[jaichind]

Looks like Tom Watson is not running...

CON gains West Bromwich East ?

[cp]

Looks like Tom Watson is not running...

CON gains West Bromwich East ?

Highly unlikely. Tories didn't even win when the SD split the vote near perfectly in 1983.

[Arkansas Yankee]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192142522782539776

Electoral Calculus
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Cambridgeshire%20South
Predicts the following for this seat.

2017
Votes   2017
Share                         Predicted 2019
Votes
CON   33,631   51.8%   42.5%
LAB   17,679   27.2%   16.2%
LIB   12,102   18.6%   29.6%
Green   1,512   2.3%   3.5%
Brexit   0   0.0%   6.8%
UKIP   0   0.0%   0.1%
OTH   0   0.0%   1.3%
CON Majority   15,952   24.6%   Pred Maj 12.9%

This seat voted 39% leave.  In 17 this not effect the votE.   We shall have to see.

[Lord Halifax]

Tom Watson will continue as deputy leader during the campaign. Who do you think will replace him?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The post is actually very weak 99% of the time (basically only becomes relevant when the Leader resigns) and serves little practical purpose, other than giving the holder a seat on the NEC. Historically it was an honorific, one that often went to defeated leadership contenders.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Two questions for the Labour supporters: what is your reaction to Swinson’s declaration she will never make Corbyn PM.

We know she and the other remain parties will not make Boris PM.

Then assume a hung Parliament and that the hat the Tories have the most seats and there not enough DUP or Independents to makeBoris PM

Will the nation have to await a Labour leadership election to discover who will be PM.

[Lord Halifax]

Chris Williamson has stated he will run as an Independent Socialist in Derby North, which should benefit the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looks like Tom Watson is not running...

CON gains West Bromwich East ?

Highly unlikely. Tories didn't even win when the SD split the vote near perfectly in 1983.

Note also that despite all the bluster it wasn't even arguably close two years ago: majority of 20% on a vote share of 58%. As Watson polled 50% two years earlier that is probably a relatively 'hard' 58%, so to speak. Labour also won every ward in the constituency in May.

[CumbrianLeftie]

Watson was at least gracious enough to time his announcement to overshadow Johnson's set-piece campaign launch in the evening, rather than Corbyn's big speech earlier today.

No I have never particularly liked or trusted him, and think the Leech business was very very bad. But he will still be a hard act to follow for his "wing" of the party.

[Kingpoleon]

I have to say, Watson was a good leader for his wing of Labour, and it’s sad to see him go.

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192175698431090692?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192175698431090692?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

Otherwise  known as the 2017/18 GOP 'strategy.'