|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 25, 2020, 03:30:33 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 ... 70
Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 92356 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,421
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #275 on: November 04, 2019, 07:27:20 PM »

ICM now work for Reuters, having been fired from The Grauniad after an openly acknowledged decision to 'adjust everything to make it at least 3pts more Tory' backfired embarrassingly at the 2017 GE. And one presumes they have dropped the above approach.
Logged
c r a b c a k e
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,287
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #276 on: November 04, 2019, 09:39:44 PM »

One of the likelier independent gains of the night will be in Ashfield, where Gloria De Piero is standing down and longtime local council leader Jason Zadrozny is standing for his Ashfield Independents. Zadrozny was probably going to win back in 2010 for the Lib Dems, till his sudden arrest for child abuse allegations. Since then, he's been expelled from the party, tried to run for PCC, been re-elected as an independent, been acquitted of all charges and then swept in the recent locals with his new pet party.

In other independent news Claire Wright is standing for a third time in East Devon, except this time not against the slightly dodgy Hugo Swire, who is retiring. Sadly for her she doesn't seem to have the goodwill of the Remain/Prog Alliance with a Lib Dem on the ballot.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #277 on: November 05, 2019, 06:40:41 AM »

I am reading some of the coverage of the 2017 election.  A Vox article:

https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/9/15767522/uk-election-results-hung-parliament

states May did not agree to participate in leadership debates. The article states this empathized her arrogance.  I do not have an independent recollection of this.  Is it correct.

I would suggest that both Johnson and Corbyn change course and call for or agree to permit Swinson in every debate.  If they do not I think they may cause a backlash in her favor.
Logged
IceAgeComing
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,480
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #278 on: November 05, 2019, 07:08:28 AM »

I'm assuming this is about the BBC debate: both major party leaders initially said they'd not be attending but on the day of the thing Corbyn suddenly announced he would in something that I think was probably planned to make May and the Tories look bad and it worked; the "why didn't the Prime Minister show up???" line was easy for everyone to use and they all did.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,004


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #279 on: November 05, 2019, 07:47:53 AM »





First poll I have seen in a while of any sort that is so favorable to potential PM BoJo. This is probably why the Northern Wales seats are all on the Tory target list at the moment.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,004


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #280 on: November 05, 2019, 07:51:17 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 08:11:50 AM by Oryxslayer »

Oh and here's another constituency poll I picked up while at the Britain Elects twitter handle. This one certainly seems like the kind of consituency poll that is off because of the natural barriers to polling a single constituency.



EDIT: and here is one that seems more reasonable:

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,953
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #281 on: November 05, 2019, 08:05:20 AM »

Yougov london poll

LAB    39
CON   29
LDEM 19
BXP      6
Green.  5
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #282 on: November 05, 2019, 08:21:11 AM »

Swinson says she will never let Corbyn become PM.  She knows she has to get the votes of Conservative Remainers. She knows this is the only possible way.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10272085/general-election-live-latest-news/

Will this not make Labour less willing to tactically vote for a Lib Dem?

Is also possible she might get caught making some deals with Labour?
Logged
MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,153
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #283 on: November 05, 2019, 09:27:31 AM »

I know Iíve talked about how predictable this is election is going to be but even so itís shaping up to be pretty disappointing and by that I mean I expected this election to have a lot of twists and turns and lead to a hung parliament, marginals switching all over the place, 4 way races but it already looks like for political junkies this is going to be a major let down

ē Farage isnít standing, major let down. Farage in the commons at PMQís would be terrific entertainment for years to come - no matter who is PM.

ē It appears like voters are drifting toward Tories and Labour - meaning the chances of marginals flipping all over and four way races are shrinking.

ē It appears as if the Lib Dems arenít going to win a boatload of seats from remainers on both sides, as it first seemed. It also seems as if BrExit might not win ANY seats which means you wonít see the Tories being forced make serious choices and  to stop riding the self serving fence theyíve been on for three years

Revising my prediction in a big way:

Conservative - 360
Labour - 200
Lib Dem20
SNP - 45
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,421
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #284 on: November 05, 2019, 09:30:54 AM »

Parliament hasn't even been dissolved yet, kid.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #285 on: November 05, 2019, 09:38:21 AM »
« Edited: November 05, 2019, 09:46:33 AM by Arkansas Yankee »

Yougov london poll

LAB    39
CON   29
LDEM 19
BXP      6
Green.  5

Electoral Calculus sets out the London vote in 2017 as follows:
            Labour got 54.5% and the Liberals 8.8 for a total of 63.3%
            Conservatives got 33.1% and UKIP 1.3% for a      
It predicts the current vote at Labor 34.2%,
                                                    Conservatives 29.5                                        
                                                    Liberal Dems 21.2
                                                    Brexit 7.5%
                                                    UKIP  .3%
                                                    Green 5.5%
                                                    Other 1.8%

On this swing it finds the Conservatives gain 6 seats from Labour: Etham, Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Kensington, and Dagenham and Rainhem

The Liberals gain Richmond Park from the Tories and Bermonbsey and Old Southwark from Labour

Swinson better not be caught trying to make any deals with Labour.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,431


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #286 on: November 05, 2019, 09:52:12 AM »

One thing about the London poll is that 52% of Remainers are backing Labour with only 26% backing the Lib Dems. That's worse than the 30% of backers they have in the most recent GB wide YouGov. Lib Dems underperforming, relatively, with BME voters accounts for this.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #287 on: November 05, 2019, 10:21:10 AM »

The Daily Mail touts a new You Gov poll showing that Brexit gained 4% to 11% after Farage said he would contest 600 seats.  The Tories were down to 38, Labour down 2 to 25% and the Lib Dems unchanged at 16. 

The Daily Mail endorsed the Tories in 2015 and 2017.  Do not know why they are encouraging Farage.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
Logged
Oryxslayer
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,004


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #288 on: November 05, 2019, 10:43:38 AM »

Philip Hammond is standing down in Runnymead and Weybridge, will not run in 2019.
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #289 on: November 05, 2019, 10:54:09 AM »

In reading todayís Daily Mail I think I come up with the reason that Corbyn will not recover this year as in 2017.  It is the Anti-Semitism that has been propagated by several Labourites. I that is also the reason his satisfaction level is -60.

In todayís Mail there is article covering Tony Blairís attack on Corbyn for allowing Labour to be tainted with anti-Semitism and not dealing with in a proper manner. He spoke before a Board of Deputies of British Jews.  They gave him a standing ovation.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7651683/Tony-Blair-says-anti-Semitism-absolutely-killing-Labour-Party.html

In another article the Mail covered the apology of the Labour candidate running against Boris Johnson in Uxbridge and Ruislip seat for deeply inappropriate anti-Semitic tweets.

It is an issue that keeps coming up.
Logged
IceAgeComing
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,480
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #290 on: November 05, 2019, 11:27:21 AM »

wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

perhaps you should consider your own anti-semitism before attacking others; let he who has not sinned etc
Logged
Arkansas Yankee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,166
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #291 on: November 05, 2019, 11:32:33 AM »

wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

perhaps you should consider your own anti-semitism before attacking others; let he who has not sinned etc

I knew someone would attack me like this.

I would suggest you talk to Tony Blair.  He is the one going around making speeches.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,421
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #292 on: November 05, 2019, 12:35:16 PM »

wow didn't think we'd get the editor of the daily mail posting on these forums

Unlikely: Grieg is a better writer than that.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 63,421
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #293 on: November 05, 2019, 01:24:58 PM »

Main story on BBC News site right now, probably not a super one for the government, on balance.
Logged
cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,397
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #294 on: November 05, 2019, 01:49:41 PM »


At least it's better for them than what's trending on Twitter

Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,431


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #295 on: November 05, 2019, 02:02:51 PM »


At least it's better for them than what's trending on Twitter



....

What annoys me is that deep down I know that JRM has not a clue what the inside of a densely packed tower block looks like. Even without smoke and raging fire.
Logged
Cosmopolitanism Will Win
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,337
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #296 on: November 05, 2019, 02:16:27 PM »

Your daily reminder that Tories are sociopaths. Smiley
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,431


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #297 on: November 05, 2019, 02:20:36 PM »

I'm thinking of doing a weekly 5 minute audio podcast from a Scottish perspective for this forum if anyone is up for that. I prefer talking to writing Smiley

Also 'Arthur' is back for the BBC Election Theme, vastly different from Rick Wakeman's prog rock perfection but welcome!

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1191309283134230528
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,468



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #298 on: November 05, 2019, 06:48:18 PM »

So Corbyn is now claiming that a trade deal with the US could cost the NHS £500m a week in higher drug prices. Tbh this seems like a great move, given how well the £350m claim worked.
Logged
Lumine
LumineVonReuental
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,140


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #299 on: November 05, 2019, 07:18:07 PM »

I suspect they'll get their act together, but man are the Conservatives making Theresa May look like a competent campaigner at the moment.

(Fantastic to see the Arthur theme back!)
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 7 8 9 10 11 [12] 13 14 15 16 17 ... 70  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 10 queries.