United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[afleitch]

I'm amazed at how Boris get's away with everything; financial scandal, sex scandal. His past. All of it. Tory candidates getting away with casual anti-Muslim statements.

The press will get bored with Corbyn. Eventually.

[afleitch]

There's risk in the first debate; viewers might not like any of them. I loathe both; I'm hoping they eat each other

[afleitch]

Big dump of leaks from Aaron Banks' twitter today.

[afleitch]

Is the debate being streamed online somewhere?

Purgatory.

BBC and Sky streams are usually easier to find online; best hit YouTube and see what you can find.

[afleitch]

Stream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kEB5pqWpJw

[afleitch]

Neither of them can be bothered.

[afleitch]

Why can't we have a real debate?

No time-limited respond, no question from the audience, no audience at all, ...

The UK audience, with decades of panel debates behind them love the sound of themselves and their own quips and their own laughter to nauseating levels.

[afleitch]

Tories being utter c-nts with CCHQPress twitter changed their name to 'factcheckUK.'

[afleitch]

Jo Swinson...being very...you know...Blair (slight exasperation) in how...you know...she talks.

[afleitch]

Sturgeon doing well.

Not that I'm biased.

[afleitch]

Roundheads v Cavaliers

https://election.unherd.com/

Focal Data doing some election stuff...but for now just views of the monarchy.

[afleitch]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1197507032468918272?ref_src=twsrc%5...

Some tentative suggestion of tactical voting.

[afleitch]

So there's this forecast site:

https://leantossup.ca/uk-constituency-map/

CON GAIN Torfaen anyone?

[afleitch]

Still trying to work out which Vote 2012 Forum member 'I'm poor on 80k me.' shouty BBC Question Time man is.

[afleitch]

And following on from my previous post, one of the best things that could be done to improve media coverage in this country is to fire THAT programme - and all involved with it - onto the surface of the sun.

It's the home of jabbing finger 'look at me' self opinionated wankers. It makes me feel sorry for politicians....maybe that's the point of it.

[afleitch]

Labour can't categorically say no to IndyRef (they need to have at least some channel of communication with the SNP open, which requires keeping the possibility open), but they obviously shouldn't promise it explicitly, for the sake of their own unionist voters. Just like on Brexit, this is not an ideal stance but it's the least bad choice for Labour.

The fact that Labour refuse to go all in on these bullsh*t culture war issues and persists in focusing on bread-and-butter issues that actually affect people's lives is one of the thing I like most about this party. The next Labour leader will have to change many things from the Corbyn years, but I really hope they aren't foolish enough to change that.

I'd disagree that Labour hasn't gone all in on culture war issues (which when it comes to equality, I personally wouldn't categorise as bullsh*t); it has (even in the manifesto) But it is good at keeping to core 'Labour' face to face issues and trying to draw the Tories to that fight where they try and fail to match it with populism.

Labour in Scotland is an awkward coalition of unionists, Orangemen, old Lanarkshire grannies and wealthy Edinburgh suburbanites. If it falls back again then yes, UK Labour have nothing to lose because there's nothing left of the Scottish party to try and keep on side. Ideally, if it wasn't for matters of pride and pushback from the Scottish party, some of whom have over the past decade in trying to 'own the Nats' ended up as fellow travellers to the Tories, Labour would stand down in Scotland completely.

So I think a swift agreement with the SNP would happen; that's why the first 'one or two years of a Labour government' is the line; not 'never'.

[afleitch]

In glamorous Bury this weekend so had the chance to watch the Question Time thingy and er, Jo Swinson, yikes....

Swinson was fine. It's just the audience was packed with Corbynites to trip her up, because contrary to some belief, the media is biased in favour of Corbyn, not against him.

No.

She was terrible; one of the worst TV guttings of any political leader I've seen.

[afleitch]

Yeah I know I'm an SNP supporter and activist, but I do objectively think

Sturgeon


Corbyn






Boris



























(upside down kangaroo)









Swinson

[afleitch]

So there's an expectation of a glut of polls this weekend.

Worth remembering is that all that matters is the direction of travel not the actual individual gaps as such; last weekend saw a widening of the Tory lead after Labour had been closing the gap.

I'm taking a risk here but if Labour don't close the gap even marginally this weekend, it does look difficult for them to 'repeat 2017' which has been the mantra I've heard a lot from activists. The caveat to this is the 'likely to vote' numbers especially for younger voters. They should start to tick up.

But again there's a potential for this to be the election that 2017 'should have been.'

[afleitch]

And on that front, Opinium have the Tory lead up to 19 points up from 16 points last week.

[afleitch]

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

[afleitch]

I think if things don't shift to a lead of less than 8%, probably a landslide. Something that sees them through to 2024 and perhaps strong enough to weather 2029.

If votes were ever somewhat banked, they aren't now. So there's no point worrying about the longer term.

I think it's based on sizeable majorities insulating governments somewhat of which there's some political theory behind; 1987 helping Major in 1992, 2001 helping Labour in 2005 despite just a 3 point lead (and 2005 making 2010 harder for the Tories). This is the third (quick) election for the incumbent Tories and if Boris walks away with a majority of 100, it's probably not going to become a Labour majority of say 10 in one cycle.

[afleitch]

Still no word on whether there will be a Scotland only poll. None so far this campaign (we'd had 5 this time during the last campaign) and Wales is due it's second on Monday.

[afleitch]

Panelbase poll of Scotland

SNP 40%
Tories 28%
Labour 20%
Lib Dems 11%
BxP less than 1%

Not great for SNP.

If the results above proved correct is it not likely that the Tories would only lose one of its 13 seats in Scotland?  That would be Stirling.

It's the best result with Panelbase for the SNP in two tears. Tories are back up to 2017 levels in line with the country. A result like that could still see the Tories almost wiped out ot even make gains; it'll depend on local swings.

[afleitch]

hahahahahahahaha

https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1197952220844711936?s=21

Maybe if they didn't have student loans to pay...