United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 136045 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #25 on: November 30, 2019, 03:14:54 AM »


Yes.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #26 on: December 03, 2019, 05:05:32 PM »

I mean, the truth is that there has been a Labour surge (or perhaps more accurately, a slow but steady build) but that was matched by a comparable Tory gain. Whereas in 2017, Labour surged and the Tories held steady.

This would still mean serious losses for Labour if the polls are right, of course, but I do think there's a difference between being defeated 35-25 and being defeated 45-35. Going into the election there was a real risk of Labour losing key parts of it base and potentially facing another 1983-like defeat that would cripple it for a generation. Right now, if they do at least as well as the polls are predicting, they will remain a solid voting block and the clear face of the opposition. Once Corbyn is replaced, that can put them in a strong position to win in 2024.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #27 on: December 05, 2019, 04:02:30 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2019, 04:09:09 PM by Mangez des pommes ! »

Jo Swinson apologises for backing coalition's austerity policies

Jo Swinson has repeatedly apologised for her role in austerity measures under the Lib Dem-Conservative coalition after she was pressed in a BBC interview over why her party is seeking to roll back several measures she voted for in the 2010-15 administration. Swinson, who is facing criticism of her tactical decisions and voter appeal in a campaign which has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating gradually slip, also said she would remain as leader even the party ended up with fewer than the 21 MPs they began the election with. “I’m continuing as Liberal Democrat leader,” she said. “I’ve got a job to do and I’ve just been elected to do it.” Asked if she would remain regardless of the result, she replied: “I’m here to stay and we’re going to get a great result.”

The quizzing on benefit cuts began with Neil noting that the Lib Dems wanted to scrap the bedroom tax, which cuts benefits for people living in social homes with more rooms than they are deemed to need. “Who voted nine times to introduce the bedroom tax?” he asked. “The Liberal Democrats in government, including myself,” said Swinson, who held various junior ministerial roles from 2012 to 2015. She added: “Which I have previously said – and I’m happy to say again – was wrong. And I’m sorry about that, and it was one of the things that we did get wrong.” Swinson also acknowledged that while in the coalition she backed the benefits cap, which limits the maximum benefits income a family can receive regardless of circumstances, and private tendering in the NHS – all of which she now wants to reverse.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/04/jo-swinson-lib-dem-apologises-for-backing-coalition-austerity-policies

We're so sorry'f the bedroom tax
Has been causing you distress in any way
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #28 on: December 06, 2019, 05:49:08 PM »




Pretty much.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #29 on: December 08, 2019, 06:49:30 PM »


There's a Scottish constituency that voted 61% Leave? Shocked Huh.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #30 on: December 11, 2019, 04:26:25 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 04:30:36 AM by Mangez des pommes ! »


..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #31 on: December 11, 2019, 05:38:10 AM »

The real important question is what is the British-African-American vote doing?

Even more importantly: will it rain in British NoVa tomorrow?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #32 on: December 11, 2019, 09:13:17 PM »

Probably not a coincidence that all the polls that showed the biggest Tory leads show gains from Labour, while those with more reasonable leads to begin with are showing no movement whatsoever. This is probably all herding rather than meaningful movement.

It's possible that pollsters have good reasons to be herding (ie, they've figured out their models were junk all along and are trying to correct them at the last minute to follow the lead of better pollsters). But it's equally possible that all this herding is actually leading the polls astray, like it did in the last week of 2016 when Hillary seemed to be regaining ground. Nate's first rule of polling error is always in the back of my mind in moments like this.

(Not making a prediction either way, just thinking out loud.)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #33 on: December 13, 2019, 02:16:29 PM »

Well, there's nothing I have to say here that probably hasn't been said already. Godspeed to Britain in the next 5 years, and let's hope Labour will get its sh*t together by then.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #34 on: December 14, 2019, 05:11:57 PM »

Any chance Boris will clip the wings of Blair Supreme Court after they dealt him that blow

The process to select British Supreme Court members is thankfully nonpartisan right now, and we can only hope it stays that way.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #35 on: December 15, 2019, 05:02:58 PM »



I love you John. You're a fking hero. Cry

Honestly, as someone who never liked the guy (even back when I liked Corbyn), massive respect. It takes real guts to apologize so thoroughly.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #36 on: December 16, 2019, 01:56:09 AM »

2015 is not a good baseline though, since it had abysmal turnout to begin with.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #37 on: December 16, 2019, 06:41:54 AM »

2015 is not a good baseline though, since it had abysmal turnout to begin with.

66% compared to 67.5% last week, not a vast difference (and 2017 was 69%, in the same ballpark)

Huh, for some reason I seemed to remember there had been a much bigger jump in 2017. My bad.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #38 on: January 09, 2020, 09:12:44 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2020, 09:17:54 PM by Trends are real, and I f**king hate it »

I assume you mean that the first map is swing and the second one is trend? It would be easier on us if we all stuck to Atlas lingo on this.

Also, I'd be very interested in seeing swing maps from 2010 and 1992, both elections that had more comparable Tory margins.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #39 on: February 01, 2020, 05:05:08 PM »

So just to be clear, the first one is 2010-2019 swing and the other 2015-2019?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,965
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #40 on: February 01, 2020, 05:30:50 PM »

Thanks! Fascinating maps.
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