United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135673 times)
EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #25 on: December 06, 2019, 07:44:36 AM »

It has improved somewhat, actually - it's just that whereas last time he went from being very unpopular to being slightly unpopular, this time he's gone from phenomenally unpopular to merely very unpopular.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #26 on: December 07, 2019, 08:42:52 AM »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27

SF are on average set to lose one seat next week - most likely Foyle, but there are two potential others. However, it's still a 27 majority because the speaker now is Labour, so there's an extra nonvoting opposition member.

Deputy speakers also don't vote and they're politically balanced (two Tories and one Labour when the Speaker is Labour; two Labour and one Tory if the Speaker is Tory) so in practice that has no impact.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #27 on: December 10, 2019, 06:58:51 AM »

It would likely be closer without a certain person's vanity candidacy?

Possibly closer, but not that close. Labour would definitely need to be ahead nationally to take Two Cities. It's Kensington where the Tories are really benefiting from it.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2019, 10:33:21 AM »


It feels somewhat revealing that the big story today has been a Labour politician saying something that everybody informed thought they thought anyway.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #29 on: January 10, 2020, 01:33:03 PM »

Yes, one thing that's often missed is that working-class Toryism was a meaningful phenomenon up until 1992 at the very latest - in some places, it wasn't really swept away at a local level until the rise of UKIP (and in other places it actually provided the bulk of the pre-2010 Lib Dem vote.) It wasn't in exactly the same places as where the Tories gained in 2019 (though there is some overlap), but arguably the voters they've gained now look quite demographically similar to working-class Tories from three decades ago
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #30 on: February 05, 2020, 08:45:11 AM »

Worth noting that we actually did pretty well in the Medway towns in 2017, it's just that the Tories did extremely well. We did terribly in 2019, of course, so we're further behind than ever there now.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #31 on: February 05, 2020, 05:11:20 PM »

That's probably too US-centric an approach - race is far from irrelevant in UK politics, but it's generally a bit more complex than that. One factor that needs considering is that London has much lower rates of home ownership than the rest of the UK and this is an increasingly important dividing line (and almost all the remaining strongly Conservative bits of London have high rates of home ownership.)
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #32 on: February 06, 2020, 04:39:08 AM »

There are distinctions between different BAME groups - black Caribbean voters are very strongly Labour; black African voters a little less strong; South Asian Muslim voters usually strong for Labour (in general elections, at least, and in practice taking them as a group is often unhelpful); the Conservatives have recently become competitive amongst Hindus (although this is also quite correlated with social class); Sikhs are somewhere in the middle.

The extent to which our performance improved with these various demographics varied quite a lot in 2017, but in 2019 we seem to have fallen back with them fairly uniformly and at very similar rates to their white neighbours (sometimes, as in Leicester East, individual candidates seem to have made a difference, but in the Black Country is just seems like everybody hated us). So yes, race matters, but more in terms of the starting point than the trajectory of the change at the last election.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #33 on: February 17, 2020, 11:44:45 AM »

On a similar note, Don Valley then was a little more like Doncaster North than Don Valley, though that probably wouldn't have changed either the 1931 or the 2019 result.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2020, 04:16:00 PM »

Spennymoor is an odd one because it the area it covered comprises what are, under even halfway 'normal' GE circumstances, the most Labour bits of N.W. Durham, Durham City and Bishop Auckland. Complicating that further is the possibility that the incumbent in the former might have underperformed especially in that part of the constituency (or perhaps in parts of that part) for various reasons involving her own behaviour.

Though the main thing you always note when you look at its boundaries is quite how bad depopulation in the area has been since the 1920s; the idea of those towns forming a constituency together now would be a joke.

What story is this referring to? I wasn't aware she paid enough attention to the constituency to alienate specific parts of it in particular.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2020, 06:38:07 AM »

It was Conservative-held from 1895-1906.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2020, 07:26:50 AM »

Ince was Lib-Lab 1892-1895. Merthyr was won by the LRC in 1900, but both the successor constituencies were won by coupon candidates in 1918 and you've also got S. O. Davies to factor in.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #37 on: February 21, 2020, 08:55:05 AM »

If you're including Lib-Lab candidates, then the winner would be Rhondda. Lib-Lab 1874-1918, always been Labour since.
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