United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1192534158574280705

I guess survation is releasing one  of these every day.

Was this one commissioned by anybody?

Because election spending restrictions have now kicked in, and polls cost a bit of money......

[CumbrianLefty]

Its not their "latest" poll, as mentioned above most of the data is literally weeks old.

(and why are you using Staines as a source anyway?)

[CumbrianLefty]

We do, however, now have an actual new poll. From Panelbase. And it reads thus: Con 40, Lab 30, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3

This, for the record, would equate to a 4pt swing from 2017.

Labour and LibDems up 1 since a week ago, BxP down 1.

[CumbrianLefty]

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

[CumbrianLefty]

Such a strategy is fine, as long as it works. But there is certainly potential for it to misfire.

The Tories don't have many young voters and will be in trouble when the boomers die off.

I remember there was a debate about this point back in 2015 after the Tories won. There is quite a bit of evidence to suggest that at least in Britain people do generally become more conservative as they age. And considering that the UK is a aging society, perhaps the future is not so gloomy for the Conservatives..

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-do-we-become-more-conservative-with-age-47910

But at present the Tories are *unusually* reliant on older voters, and there are at least some reasons to think the present extreme pro-Tory lean of "boomers" is actually down to specific non-replicable factors which won't be entirely matched in the future simply by the next generations becoming more right wing as they age.

For a start the print media in this country (massively pro-Tory) likely has a limited shelf life in its present form.

[CumbrianLefty]

Subsamples mostly from weeks ago.

[CumbrianLefty]

Let's just say that today was the first time I and probably many other people have heard of Dan Carden, so he didn't exactly make a good first impression.

What has been alleged very likely didn't happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes but its a much narrower Tory lead in the 45-65 age bracket, and one that is subject to change - this group (my age group as it happens) is also much more "swingy" than the boomers.

[CumbrianLefty]

YouGov Scotland poll is dire for Labour, now fourth behind the Nats Tories and LibDem. oh how the mighty have fallen

My understanding is that it was a subsample ergo it has less significance than a Yougov poll for Scotland

It's also worth noting that the Labour gains in Scotland were completely unheralded in 2017 - eg some of the media seriously tried to portray Glasgow East as a Tory vs. SNP duel. It's not yet clear whether this was simply a more extreme example of having missed the Labour surge, or whether there's a specific issue with Scottish polling.

Scottish polling at the time showed Labour rising to 25% or even above, it's just the narrative was set by the polls right after the election call that showed Labour in the teens so nobody really picked up on it at the time, and all the polling very much overestimated the SNP.

Low teens, they actually doubled their score from that on the day.

[CumbrianLefty]

It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

[CumbrianLefty]

BXP support has been on a pretty clear downward trend anyway and it's likely they'd have been below 5% by polling day anyway

They might plausibly have seen the campaign as a chance to change that. But it appears not.

Could this actually cause a few more UKIP candidates to appear in Tory held seats?

[CumbrianLefty]

It gives credence to the line that BxP is simply a Tory party reserve squad.

or just a party wich wants a brexit.

Until literally days ago, its line was that Johnson wasn't really offering that.

[CumbrianLefty]

It also seems some BxP people due to stand in Tory seats had no knowledge of this decision and are not happy about it. A few might well take the UKIP label or stand as some sort of Indy.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/group_b.6b9db4dc-d1df-4c9d-b9ab-c9a136a91f1e/uk-general-election-seats-markets

Sporting Index market for seats saw an increase of around 15 seats for CON on the Farage/BXP news.

The sort of knee jerk reaction I expected.

Already seen takes like "Tories will hold all their Scottish seats now" even though (just like UKIP in their heyday) BxP always polled much less well in Scotland than England/Wales anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

For the record, Labour came second in Thurrock in 2015 (as in 2010 and 2017 - all by small margins)

And the solution to what happened then was never for the party to hurtle to the right as the lemming like 4.5% tendency (well represented on here as on other politics discussion boards) demanded. That way lay only SPD or PASOK style oblivion. 

Like it or not, some form of Corbynism (even if moderated and "sanitised" a bit) really *is* the only game in town - almost whatever the result next month. Though the above graph should give those who have already decided that a big Tory win is inevitable some pause.   

[CumbrianLefty]

I can see it triggering consolidation of the Remain vote toward Labour (which we're already seeing some evidence for) so let's see where things go from there.

Why do you think this? Labour, despite what Corbynites would have us believe, still don't have any credibility on Brexit. The Lib Dem polling slide after the calling of the election was only a few points, was always inevitable once a campaign began and has since stalled.

For what feels like the 400th time, Labour are not a remain party

Besides, the Lib Dems will happily use this in every election leaflet and broadcast from now until December 12th in order to bring Tory remainers over to their side, so if anything, their share of the remainer vote will go up because of it.

Fwiw, I don't think this will change much except at the margins in a few Brexity & Lab held marginals where the Lib Dems were already mostly irrelevant.

Labour is offering a second referendum though. With Labour you get either a soft Brexit or no Brexit at all, both are clearly superior to if Boris wins a majority which would guarantee a hard Brexit. Labour isn't perfect but they're clearly better than the Tories on Brexit (and overall too).

I can't speak for anyone else but I don't trust that Labour will give the second referendum that they offer and even if I did, its too little too late. I also don't believe a Corbyn Brexit would be any softer than a Boris one. Again, this is just me and I'd probably advise against extrapolating this to a wider voting bloc - I imagine there are a near-infinite range of opinions on this among remainer voters.

I've heard this sentiment from a Lib Dem supporter lately and, honestly, it baffles me. Given the agonies Labour has endured internally to get to the policy it has now (which is, for the record, nearly identical to the Lib Dem position from 2017), and given the electoral calculus attached to adopting a pro-Leave position for anyone but the Tories and Brexit/UKIP, what on earth makes a person think Labour would renege on promising a referendum with a Remain option? Whose benefit would it be to? What advantage would it provide?

Add to that, even if a PM Corbyn and his inner circle tried to push  a soft vs hard Brexit referendum through parliament, the PLP would never support it and the membership would go apoplectic. Not holding a referendum at all would just put Corbyn in the same position May and Johnson were in, even if he had a majority (again, PLP is overwhelmingly Remain).

I get that distrusting politicians, and Corbyn in particular, is basically the default position for most voters, but the idea that Corbyn would renege on this policy at this time doesn't hold up to even modest scrutiny.

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

[CumbrianLefty]

BuT jEmErY cRoByN sEcReTlY wAnTs A nO dEaL bReXiT!!!!!!!??1111!!!!!

This but unironically

Ah, you subscribe to one of the most ridiculous alt-centrist memes. Good to know

In reality, Corbyn has publicly opposed a no deal Brexit on every occasion. From the beginning. And has whipped Labour MPs to oppose it again and again.

But something something DISASTER SOCIALISM something something, amirite?  

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah yes, its all about "belief".

You are certainly a good fit for the cult DaWN - Swinson's "remain as identity" cult, that is. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, guilty as charged there. I'd point out that you and I are not on as different sides as you seem to think. We both want the same thing (a fairer society), I am just of the belief that Lexit is certain to cause, not prevent, Farage and Boris' free market dystopia. That's why I am so adamant.

I am also opposed to Brexit, voted remain in 2016 and would do so again.

That's not the Swinsonite mindset I referred to, however. 

[CumbrianLefty]

More polls...

Survation: Con 35, Lab 29, LDem 17, BP 10, Greens 1, Others ?*
ICM: Con 39, Lab 31, LDem 15, BP 8, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 1

_{*Note that Survation polls include Northern Ireland, so mentally change those figures to 36, 30... for comparative purposes.}

It's certainly tightening up.

YouGov have just reported a 14 point lead for the Tories, so some of it is just about the differing house effects of the various pollsters.

Though that is just one point up on their previous poll, and none at all before a methodology change (supposedly accounting for BxP not standing in Tory seats) is added. On that evidence, not exactly the turbo-boost to Johnson's campaign some pundits excitedly proclaimed.

[CumbrianLefty]

For purposes of comparison, 2017 was Conservatives 42, Labour 40.

Actually Tories 43.5 Labour 41 if we are doing GB scores (as most pollsters do)

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1194327946107867137

After he had made a total tit of himself, mind. Though it is a mystery why the LibDems thought they should have a "high profile" candidate in this one anyway - they will probably replace him before the Thursday deadline but this time round it really will be a token.  

[CumbrianLefty]

Kantar's first poll of the campaign: Con 37, Lab 27, LDem 17, BP 9, Greens 3, SNP 3, Others 3

This is possibly of some minor interest as throughout the Autumn, Kantar had been consistent in showing Conservative leads of 14pts.

For what it's worth (very little) that poll apparently showed a 1pt Labour lead before demographics were weighted by likelihood to vote. If true the 'interesting' part of this, I guess, is the implied importance for Labour of boosting turnout.

The "certain to vote" figure amongst 18-24 year olds was reportedly a completely ridiculous 10%.

[CumbrianLefty]

Again, to equate Corbyn himself with Ruth George, the individual pro-Remain Labour MP in question, is disingenuously misguided.

When the time comes, Duffield, George and all the other Remainer Labour MPs will do what Corbyn tells them to or face instant deselection.

One of the underconsidered stories of the past few months has been how few Labour MPs actually got triggered. None of those triggered can be considered a particularly strong Remainer, with the possible exception of Hodge (who was primarily triggered for being a strong critic of Corbyn and who comfortably won the reselection ballot.) Several of those triggered, on the other hand, were on the more Brexit-y wing of the party. There are other things at play besides that, of course, but some conclusions can still be drawn.

Yes Dawn is being either woefully wrong about the internal dynamics in the Labour Party or engaging in pearl clutching. There's not a single case of an MP being deselected over being too pro EU & if you think Corbyn has the power to point and deselect ask how Neil Coyle, Ian Murray and the most vitriolic anti-Corbyn MPs sailed through...

There's at least 50 MPs who have rebelled regularly & are actively encouraged and supported by their local party.

There's another 50 who have proved wiling to also rebel against the leadership

Coyle's at least didn't really "sail through" - voting was quite close and it is credibly reported that some rather dodgy tactics were employed. Your more general point is valid, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some polls recently showing big Tory headline leads also have a near tie in their basic findings before likelihood to vote is taken to account. Clearly the promise to "get Brexit done" has solidified the Tory base and Labour needs to counter that in some way to get voters attention. The announcement on broadband is an excellent start there - more like that please

(some interesting polling evidence out recently, too, that adopting a pro "freedom of movement" line might not be the massive vote loser for Labour some have assumed - as so often, it depends on the FRAMING)