United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Walmart_shopper]

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.

You are probably mostly correct.
But is it possible the other pollsters are over herding to 2017 results?  Is it possible they might over compensentate for tactical voting?

Because a pollster notifies the polled person with the tactical choice, does not mean all the voters really get the notice.  It also does not mean all of the possible shifters will actually shift.

And finally there may be no reliable way to gage shifting Leavers, who may be shifting in greater numbers than in 2017.

Let’s wait till 12/13 to judge the pollsters.

Yes, the big worry is that pollsters have overcorrected since 2017 (as pollsters tend to do when their previous house effect was off) and BoJo is on track for an even bigger majority than it seems thanks to previous nonvoters. Hell, their previous overcorrectiong from when the pollsters missed 2015 was part of the reason why Corbyn's surge was totally off the radar. The issue with this line of thought though is that the MRP poll seems to suggest that overcorrection is going on to a slight degree, but it's main effect is the solidification of already expected Tory flips, rather than padding an already large margin. But yes, the best play as I always say, is to watch the tracking average models and see what 10 days bring.

As I recall the MRP weighted awfully heavily for Brexit views, thus the extreme result in the North and Midlands. But the assumption that Brexit matters to voters more than it actually does may be why Labour is being underestimated and why they seem to be surging. Voters in Labour-Leave constituencies aren't going to suddenly flock to the party of Jacob "you should have just left the building" Rees-Mogg because of Brexit, even though the prevailing narrative is that surely they'll do exactly that. It's a really dumb narrative, honestly. Red Labour Leave voters don't become Tories, they become simply Red Labour Leave voters. That's why the decision of the Brexit Party to leave those constituencies uncontestes is by no means an automatic gamechanger.

[Walmart_shopper]

The Survation Poll dropped-

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201294584992677889

Note: The time in the field is incorrect. It should be the 26th to the 30th instead of the 29th to the 30th.

It seems pretty clear that if Labour can bite into the LibDems as much as the Tories bit into the Brexit Party then it's a draw. I doubt that will happen, but even nicking another four or five points should be enough to prevent a Tory majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

And in any case, they cannot possibly capture the full scope of Jezz-mentum which will be realized only in 10 days.

[Walmart_shopper]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

It's actually a lot like American Catholics in the northeast and Democrats, actually, although the Troubles do have something to do with it.

[Walmart_shopper]

Obviously there is some disagreement about the historical voting tendencies of the Jewish population, but it is very interesting to see the recent poll with a large majority going to the Tories.

Obviously here in the United States, the Jewish population is overwhelmingly Democratic regardless of income level.

My thought is that it would be that the Jewish population is solidly center-left and resistant to nationalism and social conservatism yet solidly pro-Israel. The Dems fit that bill pretty well, whereas Labour has been less pro-Israel on foreign policy.

Yet, I would think that that would cause Jewish voters to defect to LibDems rather than the Tories - especially today's loony Eurosceptic Tory party.

British Jews do not have the same political outlook as American Jews. British Jews are  mostly centre-right and generally supportive of Cameron-Osbourne-esque economic policies. Unsurprisingly they've been generally a Tory demographic since Thatcher. Yes they are suspicious of overt nationalism but they don't tend to see the Tories as such, instead viewing them as the 'pro-Jewish' party.

The important element here is that radical Christianity is very weak even within the British right but is a major factor in U.S. politics.

Orthodox Jews in the US are much more politically radical than religious Jews in Britain, but are a comparably smaller fraction of the larger Jewish community. America's characteristically toxic ideologization of religion is the smoking gun here, not Christianity (or even Judaism).

In any case, if British Jews are dumb enough to pat their backs with the false comfort of British conservatism's relative irreligiosity, that's a weird choice. British right wingers (and left wingers) are incomparably more anti-Semitic than any group in the US, regardless of the radically religious influence on American politics. That's a British problem not unique to any one political faction.

[Walmart_shopper]

Worth remembering that this MRP estimate is based on a national vote share of Con43/Lab34.

If things turn out to actually be significantly closer than that......

Indeed. If the lead is really six and not nine, and the Tories lose three points off these MRP numbers, they aren't even close to a majority after tomorrow. I think a nine point gap is perfectly reasonable, of course, but if the recent controversies make the final results closer to the more Labour-friendly public polls (ComRes, for example), then it will get very interesting. The absolute only reason that the Tories have any shot at the majority is remainer vote-splitting in London and elsewhere. If tactical voting is used well then the Tories could be prevented from getting a majority even with a 7-point national spread.