United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[Arkansas Yankee]

We are 18 days from the election.   In 2017 Labour average in the polls was averaging around 33.  It is now 29 now.  When is it going to reach 33?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Take out the fraudulent Opinium poll, and this weekend's surveys are very similar to the same point in 2017. Which does not mean history is bound to repeat itself, but maybe worth bearing in mind.

In 2017 I pointed out by this weekend Labour was averaging around 33.  Even excluding the Opinium poll this year it is averaging only around 30.   When is it going to reach 33 this year?
It has to make such a move sometime.

[Arkansas Yankee]

According to the New Statesman, the Tories are on course for a 48 seat majority according to Datapraxis.  Paul Hilder is CEO of Datapraxis.  He was a candidate for General Secretary of Labour under Corbyn. The article says a similar analysis predicted the hung Parliament in 2017.

This analysis also points out Zac Goldsmith is set to lose his seat, and that even Johnson, Dominic Raab, Iain Duncan Smith, John Redwood, ERG chief Steve Smith could lose their seats to tactical voting.

The New Statesman is certainly not a Tory mouthpiece.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/11/conservatives-course-majority-boris-johnson-could-lose-his-seat

[Arkansas Yankee]

I am not able to understand why Corbyn went so wild in the economic policy area.  You might have thought an intelligent move would have been an effort no to terrify Conservative Remainers.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Two British firms move assets overseas to avoid Corbyn’s threat of nationalization.  That is how to build an economy.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/10417047/britains-power-firms-abroad-protect-labour-nationalisation/

[Arkansas Yankee]

I'd argue the focus on Labour anti-semitism is perfectly proportionate - quite aside from the various horrorshows with e.g. holocaust deniers in the party, there are still way too many people who clearly have antisemitic attitudes to some degree (thinking in particular of the people who can't discuss it for two sentences without mentioning Israel). It's bad and we deserve the kicking we've been taking for it.

There is an issue in that racist attitudes in other parties don't receive sufficient attention, but I don't think we should be getting an easier ride to compensate.

Proportionate focus maybe, but the level of vitriol directed at Labour/Corbyn is totally out or proportion to the substance of the allegations being made. Granted, the tenor of the dialogue isn't much worse than, say, any random flame war about Israel or Trump or the EU/Brexit. But that's a pretty low bar to set.

I guess that is matter of opinion that even Tony Blair does not agree with you. Corbyn’s interview with Andrew Neil was a real disaster for Corbyn.

[Arkansas Yankee]

So Corbyn had a horrible interview with Neil, though it wasn't as well roasted as Sturgeons. I can't wait for the Boris interview, since it appears Neil will bat three for three.

He still has to interview Swinson, too.  I think he will go 4 for 4.  If he gets Farage he’ll be 5 for 5.

But to make up ground Corbyn has to get positive reviews.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Antisemitism was not Corbyn’s only problem in the interview.  He could not explain funding for his wild spending. Admitted lower income earners would pay more taxes.   Could not say he would give an order to kill a terrorist leader.  He could not explain how a  Britain he led could fit into NATO. He could not explain his Brexit position.

Everything in the interview was a disaster.

I actually think Boris will do ok in comparison.

Swinson will have to continue maintain she will not make Corbyn PM. That should lead to some interesting questions.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If Boris does not agree to Neil interview, I would vote Brexit no matter where I lived.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Maybe the YouGov poll is actually the most interesting one out of that lot, given their tendency going back almost two years now as Tory-friendly - Labour equalling their highest rating since the launch of Change UK (remember them?) and the second lowest YouGov lead since Johnson became PM.

As for Opinium - lol. Literally nobody - including in Tory HQ - actually believes they are ahead 46-31.

You are probably mostly correct.
But is it possible the other pollsters are over herding to 2017 results?  Is it possible they might over compensentate for tactical voting?

Because a pollster notifies the polled person with the tactical choice, does not mean all the voters really get the notice.  It also does not mean all of the possible shifters will actually shift.

And finally there may be no reliable way to gage shifting Leavers, who may be shifting in greater numbers than in 2017.

Let’s wait till 12/13 to judge the pollsters.

[Arkansas Yankee]

IT CAN NOW BE SAID EMPHATICALLY THE 2019 BRITISH ELECTION IS NOT GOING PLAY OUT IN THE SAME MANNER AS THE 2017 ELECTION.  LABOUR IS NOT GOING TO CREEP UP IN VOTING STRENGTH TO CREATE  A HUNG PARLIAMENT.

THE ONLY QUESTION REMAINING IS THE SIZE OF TORY MAJORITY.  THE PROOF FOLLOWS:

The Delta Poll in today’s Telegraph has the following significant information:
1.   Tories rising 2% from it’s midweek poll to 45%.
2.   Labour rises 2% to 32%.
3.   The Tory lead remains at +13%. 
4.   The Lib. Dems drop 1% to 15%. 
5.   Brexit remains at 3%
6.   The Tories take the votes of 70% of Leavers and 22% of Remainers
7.   Labour takes 15% of Leavers and 45% of Remainers.
8.   Lib. Dems take 5% of Leavers and 26% of Remainers
9.   Brexit takes 7% of Leavers and 0% of Remainers.
10.   This pol takes the Opinium poll showing a Tory lead of 15% with out of outlier status.
11.   Since 11/12/19 there have been 12 polls showing the Tories getting at least 43% of the vote.

The polls url is http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Deltapoll-MoS191130.pdf

[Arkansas Yankee]

What is the one factor that that played a very large part in the election of Trump and the passage of Brexit. It probably will give qthqe Tories a majority this year.

A hint: Merkel was instrumental in setting up this factor in Europe.

Another hint: the Democrats are going to use this issue to re-elect Trump next year.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If Labour antisemitic problem are as set out in this article below it needs to take severe whipping and be forced to complete a total house cleaning before allowed back in #10.


https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/12/the-secret-labour-files-of-shame.php

[Arkansas Yankee]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1203828988579385350

Uhhhhh.... I guess Labour peaked? Could be over-herding.

Lol!!

Opinium may have been right from the beginning and refused to be herded.

I think the British public is making a judgment on Corbyn this election. It may not be pleasant for Labour.

[Arkansas Yankee]

How much damage can the Brexit Party do to Labour?

They can save Labour from Corbyn and his antisemitic friends.