United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135988 times)
Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #25 on: December 08, 2019, 09:23:49 AM »

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #26 on: December 10, 2019, 02:54:48 PM »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.
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Blair
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« Reply #27 on: December 10, 2019, 04:27:09 PM »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

Just a hunch but I think 2005 saw a chunk of the Labour vote Lib Dem over Iraq whilst also seeing a still significant swing to the Tories, but not enough to get rid of enough seats to deny the Tories a majority.

If I was a Labour MP in 2005 in a marginal seat I'd have a hospital and tons of schools to point to on my leaflets There's a reason a lot of the 1997 intake retired in 2010 when the economy went down the pan.
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Blair
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« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2019, 04:32:26 PM »

The key in all of this is going to be Labour marginals in the North. If Johnson can pick up 20 or more, he will almost certainly have an overall majority.

I'm thinking aloud & being lazy myself but there's really a big range of the so-called Northern marginals- some like Great Grimsby and Barrow are long time Labour held seats but have never been safe, others showed cracks in 2017 like Wakefield & Sedgefield and there's a final lot like Barnsley East and Leigh where you'd be seeing huge majorities being swept away.


How come most seats in the UK are projected in the early morning?

Counting is done from 10PM onwards & some councils run it like a machine.
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #29 on: December 13, 2019, 08:53:51 AM »

There's no evidence all those Liberal Democrats would vote Labour, or vice versa.
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #30 on: December 13, 2019, 10:53:19 AM »

So front runners to succeed Corbyn? Will Watson make a bid?

I really hope it's Ed Miliband.


Bailey/Rayer (Corbyn Left)
Thornberry/Starmer (Soft Left)
Phillips (Right), won't win

I presume she's only running to boost her media profile further? Phillips would hate being leader anyway (I agree she stands 0% chance of winning) as it would mean she'd lose her slot on all the political panel shows. She really is much more at home being a TV rent-a-gob as opposed to actually having any position of responsibility.

Ah yes a women who ran a refuge for abused women & is one of parliaments leading voices against domestic violence clearly has no desire for any responsibility...

Besides you're thick if you think becoming leader means you lose time on TV.
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #31 on: December 24, 2019, 08:46:34 AM »

If only someone warned them! (as always they were fighting the last war)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

The thing about the targeting is that we knew at the start of the campaign that it was a largely  defensive one; with our route into government resting on holding seats in the Midlands & North, and winning 10-20 Tory marginals that we missed out on last time ( we won 1 of these; Putney) so that we could lead a minority government.

The seats being targeted were ridiculous; it's of course a long running problem that target seat lists are done to massage the egos of the Labour leaders; Gordon had one way too long because his team didn't want to tell him they were getting slaughtered, Ed's one was ridiculously long because they were high in 2013 about winning, we had a defensive one in 2017 because for the first 6 weeks our data pointed to a 2019 level defeat & no-one (including JCs own team) had a way of tracking the surge & swing that late in the campaign.

So this was a pretty hilariously of of touch strategy at the beginning; and by week 3-4 it was pretty clear that we weren't closing the gap (the TV Debates & Trump visit were seen as the big events that could change it)

Of course LOTO & parts of HQ believed that the polls were wrong; but on the ground this time the MPs who knew there patches were doing voter ID and knew what was happening, and they warned about this.

Of course seeing as the partys response was to send Ian Lavery & Richard Burgon around some seats I doubt if I'd have wanted much support!
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