United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (user search)
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019 (search mode)
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135692 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: November 19, 2019, 04:58:52 PM »

Jermey Corbyn is so bad that he makes Ilhan Omar look good compared to him. Corbyn needs to lose in a landslide

Wow, thank you for the insight, Old School Republican, very cool!

Can we please deport people who know nothing about British politics from the thread?

There's a vicious antisemite running for Prime Minister of a country with nuclear weapons. This ceased being solely about the UK a long time ago.

We've already got at least two racists in control of nuclear weapons, so a third won't make much of a difference.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2019, 11:31:12 AM »

The British economy is obviously broken and needs transformational change. But that isn't what Corbyn is offering - there's nothing clever or interesting to try and reform a failed system, just "LET'S SPEND OUR WAY OUT!". So at the end of five years, all we are is deep in debt and with the same economic system the Tories will then use for Austerity 2: Electric Boogaloo.

It's probably the most frustrating thing about Corbyn, is that there are frequently opportunities for good things to happen, and he ALWAYS hoofs the ball well clear of the open goal. I'd be interested in voting for transformational change to the economy to create a better, fairer and more reliable system than the current sh**tshow (not this time because of Brexit but maybe in the future.) I have zero interest in voting for failed regressive seventies socialism.

Anyway, from what I've seen the manifesto is going down like a treat with the converted but the jury is very much out on the people who's votes actually matter. I don't think this was a game changer of any kind.

What I'm not keen on is the universality of much of the new spending. Handing out free broadband to everyone and free bus passes to those under 25 regardless whether they actually need to get them for free is the kind of thing that personally doesn't appeal to me and seems like a waste of money that could be better spent on other priorities.

The same goes with nationalisation; slapping a double arrow on a train doesn't make it magically more reliable.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: November 22, 2019, 11:47:17 AM »

If they are universal, then those who don't actually need them should be discouraged from taking them.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: November 22, 2019, 05:07:17 PM »

"Some belief" = Literally the only reasonable description of observable reality. This is a media that reports on the arguably mispronunciation of a pedophile's surname as a national crisis while four million people are forced to use food banks. Even the most deranged of anti-Corbyn partisans cannot seriously defend the media's conduct against the man over the last four years.

The food bank figure needs explaining to avoid the kind of wild distortions that ultimately hurt Labour.

The figure is more like three million and that's the number of parcels that were given out. Food bank parcels contain three days of food for emergency situations, which are very frequently, but not always benefit related. You need a note from the Jobcentre or a doctor to get one:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/05/welfare-changes-key-factor-rising-poverty-food-bank-use-study-finds

'Benefit sanctions' is a loss of benefit for breaking the conditions for having them:
https://www.nidirect.gov.uk/articles/benefit-sanctions

Considering I once got sanctioned for going to an agency registration instead of signing on - and had told the JCP what I was doing beforehand, they might be fairly casual in handing them out. I did manage to successfully appeal that one.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: November 23, 2019, 01:17:34 PM »

I think the current betting arounds of around 65% chance of a Tory majority look right, IMHO. Unless Labour manages to pull this back, we'll be facing a Johnson government with a working majority with all that entails.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: November 23, 2019, 02:08:53 PM »

That is pretty much what happened in 1964 and 1970 though. Landslides in the elections before that and the incumbent government lost power five years later.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #31 on: November 23, 2019, 05:18:03 PM »

The Lib Dems have had a real problem of strong support not being translated into seats under FPTP. It's no surprise that they're big electoral reform advocates.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: November 24, 2019, 06:45:55 AM »

Ed Miliband was actually pretty friendly to the Palestinian cause - recognition of the State of Palestine was on the Labour manifesto in 2015.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: November 24, 2019, 09:48:22 AM »

Indeed. I distinctly remember walking on the concourse of London Waterloo station on Election Day thinking that the realistic range of possibilities ran from a 100+ majority to a Conservative minority government and thinking a majority of 50 or so was the likely outcome.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: November 27, 2019, 05:30:27 PM »


I'm just going to point out that the 'Red Right Hand' has not been used officially to represent Northern Ireland since 1973 outside of a very few contexts. It's very much a Unionist symbol.

43% would be the same as May got in 2017.

Also, remember a little thing called margin of error. The 95% confidence values give the Conservatives a minimum of 328 and a maximum of 385...

Also, it's predicting Labour lose Bolsover:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/27/key-findings-our-mrp
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #35 on: November 29, 2019, 03:26:36 PM »

This is probably more out of ignorance than anything else, but I was under the impression the Tories were pretty climate friendly when compared to other center right and right wing parties in the west?

Well, they have cut back some rail electrification programmes lately.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: November 30, 2019, 05:21:10 PM »

Why is it that in two succeeding campaigns, the Tories have lost ground as polling day gets closer?

Because May wasn't a campaigner and Boris has a tendency to be a 'clown'.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #37 on: December 04, 2019, 03:10:46 PM »

An overall majority like that would be a good result for Johnson, who hasn't exactly run a stellar campaign.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: December 07, 2019, 06:09:44 AM »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #39 on: December 07, 2019, 05:18:30 PM »

Labour's best hope, unless something massively changes, is a large polling error in their favour.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #40 on: December 08, 2019, 11:26:34 AM »

FWIW, my initial contemporary reaction to the exit poll.

I had been personally predicting a majority of 50 but during a long think at Waterloo station, I saw a Conservative minority government as the worst realistic possibility for them.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #41 on: December 08, 2019, 11:32:44 AM »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #42 on: December 08, 2019, 12:11:12 PM »

Labour haven't been steadily rising this time, have they?
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #43 on: December 08, 2019, 12:29:17 PM »

The polls can be wrong. Relying on them being wrong and wrong in your favour is not a good strategy.

Conservative minority government is the best possible outcome now for Labour.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #44 on: December 08, 2019, 12:35:33 PM »

Then we end up with more mess, because there is more chance of me playing table tennis with Daisy Ridley than there is of the DUP backing a Corbyn-led government.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #45 on: December 08, 2019, 12:38:58 PM »

Indeed. The DUP are never going to support Withdrawal Agreement Mark 2, that is for sure.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: December 08, 2019, 12:44:32 PM »

Glad you're enjoying it.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,305
United Kingdom


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« Reply #47 on: December 08, 2019, 12:48:36 PM »

Part of the question is, compared to 2017, how much is people being terrified of Boris Johnson a motivator for people to turn out when compared to the enthusiasm around Corbyn that was present in 2017 and almost totally absent this time.

Well up to a point. There are still big attendances for Labour meetings/rallies at this election, and in some cases even more people are turning out to campaign for the party than was the case two years ago.

This doesn't mean that they are getting favourable reception at the doorstep. If people are even answering the door.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #48 on: December 08, 2019, 12:49:51 PM »


I always find elections fascinating Smiley

One final question before I shut up for the time being - IF the polls mostly get it wrong in similar fashion to 2017, the time may have come to ask "are 'shy Labour' voters now a thing?".

Quite possibly. I'd say that many Labour voters are deeply embarrassed by Corbyn Outriders MC.
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Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,305
United Kingdom


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« Reply #49 on: December 09, 2019, 04:53:59 PM »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.

Remember that postal votes are being sent in at the moment. Also, any major change might not be picked up in time; some people will decide in the booth.

As for me, I'm in a safe Conservative seat and since I find a lot of stuff about Labour objectionable at present, I intend to vote Lib Dem to bolster their national numbers.
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