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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 86032 times)
Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1700 on: February 05, 2020, 04:36:18 am »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?
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Intell
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« Reply #1701 on: February 05, 2020, 04:58:25 am »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?

Filled with upper working class voters, who don't have higher education and own their homes. Furthermore populated by people who left London for either their own home or to leave it's multiculturalism.  Prime constituency for UKIP and working class toryism.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1702 on: February 05, 2020, 06:10:39 am »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?

Filled with upper working class voters, who don't have higher education and own their homes. Furthermore populated by people who left London for either their own home or to leave it's multiculturalism.  Prime constituency for UKIP and working class toryism.

That Blair still made inroads in not that long ago though.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1703 on: February 05, 2020, 08:30:09 am »

Not just the changed politics since then, but it was somewhat demographically different as well.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1704 on: February 05, 2020, 08:45:11 am »

Worth noting that we actually did pretty well in the Medway towns in 2017, it's just that the Tories did extremely well. We did terribly in 2019, of course, so we're further behind than ever there now.
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« Reply #1705 on: February 05, 2020, 08:51:44 am »

Worth noting that we actually did pretty well in the Medway towns in 2017, it's just that the Tories did extremely well. We did terribly in 2019, of course, so we're further behind than ever there now.

True of quite a few other places, of course.

Of course, the question of *why* we did much better in 2017 (both locally and nationally) is a question that should have been asked rather more than it has been. Certain people have a vested interest in that not being the case, though.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1706 on: February 05, 2020, 12:41:50 pm »

  In looking over the London vote going more and more toward Labour over the last few elections, how much of that is due to an ever growing non-white share of the electorate, and how much to the white vote in London also going more to Labour?
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« Reply #1707 on: February 05, 2020, 01:42:15 pm »

  In looking over the London vote going more and more toward Labour over the last few elections, how much of that is due to an ever growing non-white share of the electorate, and how much to the white vote in London also going more to Labour?

A lot of it is due to growing non-white, but also in last two elections age was main fault line rather than social class and London on average has more young people than other parts of UK.  Also even amongst whites, generally those living in mixed areas not just in UK but other countries too are more likely to lean left than those in overwhelmingly white areas.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1708 on: February 05, 2020, 05:11:20 pm »

That's probably too US-centric an approach - race is far from irrelevant in UK politics, but it's generally a bit more complex than that. One factor that needs considering is that London has much lower rates of home ownership than the rest of the UK and this is an increasingly important dividing line (and almost all the remaining strongly Conservative bits of London have high rates of home ownership.)
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Intell
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« Reply #1709 on: February 05, 2020, 08:37:33 pm »

That's probably too US-centric an approach - race is far from irrelevant in UK politics, but it's generally a bit more complex than that. One factor that needs considering is that London has much lower rates of home ownership than the rest of the UK and this is an increasingly important dividing line (and almost all the remaining strongly Conservative bits of London have high rates of home ownership.)

BME voters are much more likely to vote labour even when taking into account class, so wouldn't it be the case that race does matter to an extent in the UK.

Also don't quote me on this, but from basic observation, that BME that voted leave in the UK were didn't swing to the conservatives as much as their white neighbours did.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1710 on: February 06, 2020, 04:39:08 am »

There are distinctions between different BAME groups - black Caribbean voters are very strongly Labour; black African voters a little less strong; South Asian Muslim voters usually strong for Labour (in general elections, at least, and in practice taking them as a group is often unhelpful); the Conservatives have recently become competitive amongst Hindus (although this is also quite correlated with social class); Sikhs are somewhere in the middle.

The extent to which our performance improved with these various demographics varied quite a lot in 2017, but in 2019 we seem to have fallen back with them fairly uniformly and at very similar rates to their white neighbours (sometimes, as in Leicester East, individual candidates seem to have made a difference, but in the Black Country is just seems like everybody hated us). So yes, race matters, but more in terms of the starting point than the trajectory of the change at the last election.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1711 on: February 06, 2020, 07:05:26 am »

There are distinctions between different BAME groups - black Caribbean voters are very strongly Labour; black African voters a little less strong; South Asian Muslim voters usually strong for Labour (in general elections, at least, and in practice taking them as a group is often unhelpful); the Conservatives have recently become competitive amongst Hindus (although this is also quite correlated with social class); Sikhs are somewhere in the middle.

The extent to which our performance improved with these various demographics varied quite a lot in 2017, but in 2019 we seem to have fallen back with them fairly uniformly and at very similar rates to their white neighbours (sometimes, as in Leicester East, individual candidates seem to have made a difference, but in the Black Country is just seems like everybody hated us). So yes, race matters, but more in terms of the starting point than the trajectory of the change at the last election.

I would be genuinely interested in a proper analysis of why Labour bombed so utterly there this time.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1712 on: February 06, 2020, 08:22:20 am »

The same factors as everywhere else, but intensified by a couple of local factors: Ian Austin's intervention really cut through in the end,* and there was a lot of outrage about the selections in the West Bromwich seats, particularly East. I also suspect that Labour were simply not prepared for any large scale loss of support from British Indian voters (white tribal Labour voters in the Black Country have always been volatile, of course, even if this was a uniquely terrible performance on that front) and were left completely clueless as to what to do when it became clear that it was happening.

*And maybe Gisela Stuart's did as well. Never a Black Country politician,  of course, but she has a high profile throughout the conurbation and was always well-liked.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1713 on: February 06, 2020, 08:40:01 am »

Of course given that 'disgruntled retiring/former MP endorses other party' and 'row over brazenly rigged selection' are staples of every election*, in some respects you're left back where you started: clearly these things only mattered because a substantial slice of the normal Labour vote was feeling mutinous. But I think 'national factors; intensified' is about right in this instance.

*I.e. what happened at Bassetlaw was certainly... unusual... but elsewhere it was normal bad practice.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1714 on: February 06, 2020, 09:20:01 am »

It appears that both Austin and John Woodcock have been nominated for peerages by the Tories after their services to them during the election campaign and indeed previously.

(though thinking about it, the latter's intervention doesn't seem to have had the same effect in Barrow - yes I know the Tories won and everything, but.....)
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Miliband: The Art of the Comeback
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« Reply #1715 on: February 06, 2020, 09:29:13 am »

I get northeast England (abandoned industry and what not), but why did the Thames estuary vote so heavily for leave?

Filled with upper working class voters, who don't have higher education and own their homes. Furthermore populated by people who left London for either their own home or to leave it's multiculturalism.  Prime constituency for UKIP and working class toryism.

That Blair still made inroads in not that long ago though.

Blair's crossover appeal when he was actually running for office was in fact not, primarily, to uselectionatlas dot org slash FORUM user Blairite types.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1716 on: February 06, 2020, 10:21:23 am »

Blair's crossover appeal when he was actually running for office was in fact not, primarily, to uselectionatlas dot org slash FORUM user Blairite types.

What people need to understand about Mr Tony is that he was a very attentive constituency MP and modeled his analysis of British society and how Labour could/should adapt to the ways in which it was changing based on his constituency and how it had changed* and was continuing to change. In other words, he was (and even now is despite his views swinging a mile to the right since), in practice, much more of a Marxist than Corbyn and co. Classless populism was never what New Labour went in for, even if it may have seemed that way if you were not part of the target audience.

*The last pit there (Fishburn) closed five years before he became an MP and that was only a drift mine. Large-scale employment in the coal industry ended there, as in most of the rest of Durham, in the late 1960s.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1717 on: February 06, 2020, 04:48:36 pm »

Looking at the 2005 notional results, there are eight constituencies that the Tories held then that they do not at present:

Lost in 2015
Enfield North (voted 50.8% to remain in 2016)
Ilford North (voted 52.5% to leave)
Wirral West (voted 55.3% to remain)

Lost in 2017
Canterbury (voted 54.7% to remain)
Enfield Southgate (voted 62.1% to remain)
Reading East (voted 61.8% to remain)

Lost in 2019
Putney (voted 73.2% to remain)
St. Albans (voted 62.6% to remain)

Breaking them down, there are four in London, three in the South East and one in the North West; seven voted to remain (four of those with more than 60%) and one to leave. Seven are now held by Labour, and one by the Liberals (St. Albans).


The other party to have had a dramatic rise in its vote from 2005 to the present is the SNP, which doesn't hold two ridings that it had fourteen years ago:

Banff & Buchan (voted 54.0% to leave)
Moray (voted 50.1% to remain)

Both were lost to the Tories in 2017 (after being won in 1987) and held two years later; Banff & Buchan was actually held with an increased majority, while Moray was nearly won back by the SNP. They were also the two most pro-leave constituencies in Scotland.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1718 on: February 06, 2020, 05:10:53 pm »

If one widens the scope a bit to look at Conservative constituencies in the 2010 minority Parliament that they don't have now, there are twelve more:

Lost in 2015
Brentford & Isleworth (voted 56.7% to remain in 2016)
City of Chester (voted 57.3% to remain)
Ealing Central & Acton (voted 70.9% to remain)
Hove (voted 66.1% to remain)
Lancaster & Fleetwood (voted 50.9% to leave)

Lost in 2017
Battersea (voted 77.0% to remain)
Brighton Kemptown (voted 57.6% to remain)
Croydon Central (voted 50.3% to leave)
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (voted 54.4% to leave)
Warwick & Leamington (voted 58.9% to remain)
Weaver Vale (voted 50.1% to leave)

Lost in 2019
Richmond Park (voted 73.3% to remain)

Breaking these down, five are in London, three in the North West, two in the South East, one in the South West & one in the West Midlands. Eight voted to remain (four with more than 60%) and four to leave (two in the North West, one in London & one in the South West). Eleven are held by Labour, and one by the Liberals.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1719 on: February 06, 2020, 07:43:05 pm »

It appears that both Austin and John Woodcock have been nominated for peerages by the Tories after their services to them during the election campaign and indeed previously.

(though thinking about it, the latter's intervention doesn't seem to have had the same effect in Barrow - yes I know the Tories won and everything, but.....)

But the result there did not look like the result in Dudley North, yes. Despite the constituency's main employer.

I suppose one difference is that Austin* went at it with more enthusiasm and, frankly, was always a more effective politician and so knew what sort of language to pick for maximum impact. He also has very good contacts in the regional media.

*The government giving him, especially, a peerage is not a very clever move from their perspective? Strange.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1720 on: February 07, 2020, 05:37:35 am »

Austin is a horrible man, but one mastered in the black arts.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1721 on: February 17, 2020, 10:51:01 am »
« Edited: February 17, 2020, 11:03:18 am by DistingFlyer »

To look at things from the opposite view of the earlier list (Tory seats held in opposition but not now), I see that, of the 52 constituencies held by Labour in their big 1931 defeat, 17 are not held by them now:

Broxtowe (now Conservative)
Clay Cross (Conservative)
Don Valley (Conservative)
Dumbarton Burghs (Scottish Nationalist)
Glasgow Bridgeton (Scottish Nationalist)
Glasgow Gorbals (Scottish Nationalist)
Glasgow Govan (Scottish Nationalist)
Glasgow St. Rollox (Scottish Nationalist)
Glasgow Shettleston (Scottish Nationalist)
Hamilton (Scottish Nationalist)
Leigh (Conservative)
Mansfield (Conservative)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (Conservative)
Rother Valley (Conservative)
Rothwell (Conservative)
Spennymoor (Conservative)
Workington (Conservative)

Of these, seven are in Scotland (and now held by the SNP), six in the North of England (now Conservative), and four in the Midlands (also Conservative). Most, but not all, were lost in the last three elections (the Scottish ones in 2015, the rest mostly in 2019).


[Should probably note that the old Broxtowe constituency is mostly modern-day Ashfield & Sherwood, while the new Broxtowe is largely cut from Rushcliffe.]
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1722 on: February 17, 2020, 11:44:45 am »

On a similar note, Don Valley then was a little more like Doncaster North than Don Valley, though that probably wouldn't have changed either the 1931 or the 2019 result.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1723 on: February 17, 2020, 12:00:52 pm »

On a similar note, Don Valley then was a little more like Doncaster North than Don Valley, though that probably wouldn't have changed either the 1931 or the 2019 result.

Yes, the old Don Valley encompasses most of the current constituency as well as Doncaster North, with Doncaster Central being similar to the old Doncaster seat. As you say, though, this still probably wouldn't make much difference here.

On a similar note, the clean SNP sweep of the Glasgow area made it very easy to determine who currently holds Labour's 1931 Scottish seats; the 2017 results might have made that a bit trickier.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1724 on: February 17, 2020, 01:55:23 pm »

Spennymoor is an odd one because it the area it covered comprises what are, under even halfway 'normal' GE circumstances, the most Labour bits of N.W. Durham, Durham City and Bishop Auckland. Complicating that further is the possibility that the incumbent in the former might have underperformed especially in that part of the constituency (or perhaps in parts of that part) for various reasons involving her own behaviour.

Though the main thing you always note when you look at its boundaries is quite how bad depopulation in the area has been since the 1920s; the idea of those towns forming a constituency together now would be a joke.
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