United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135642 times)
Hnv1
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« Reply #1575 on: December 14, 2019, 04:30:48 PM »

Any chance Boris will clip the wings of Blair Supreme Court after they dealt him that blow
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1576 on: December 14, 2019, 05:11:57 PM »

Any chance Boris will clip the wings of Blair Supreme Court after they dealt him that blow

The process to select British Supreme Court members is thankfully nonpartisan right now, and we can only hope it stays that way.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1577 on: December 15, 2019, 05:52:22 AM »

Any chance Boris will clip the wings of Blair Supreme Court after they dealt him that blow

The process to select British Supreme Court members is thankfully nonpartisan right now, and we can only hope it stays that way.

Page 48 of the Tory manifesto (which I hope will one day become as infamous as it deserves to be) doesn't make one massively optimistic on that score unfortunately.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #1578 on: December 15, 2019, 06:38:48 AM »



I love you John. You're a fking hero. Cry
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Annatar
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« Reply #1579 on: December 15, 2019, 06:46:06 AM »

I’m not a corbynite but the corbynites are right that labour lost this election due to Brexit and the legacy of Blair, not Corbyn. If you look at the numbers, a lot of corbyn’s policies are popular, nationalisation of various things polls at 60-65%. In a lot of the northern seats, the disillusionment with labour began to happen under the neoliberal policies of Blair, to some extent this election is a result of Blair’s legacy. If Labour moves in a neoliberal direction they will be beaten even harder, their best bet is to keep corbyn’s economic agenda which is popular at least regarding certain aspects of it and make sure the next election is not about Brexit.

I don’t think Corbyn’s unpopularity mattered because if that was the case the swing should have been uniform, instead it correlated perfectly with the leave vote, the higher the leave vote was, the bigger the swing to the conservatives, this was a Brexit election, the next election won’t be, but labour won’t win it if they take a neoliberal agenda to it.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1580 on: December 15, 2019, 06:50:28 AM »

Corbyn was the most mentioned issue on the doorstep and polling evidence back that up.

An election without Corbyn will just allow the economic agenda to be analysed more - and it won't wash with many middle class voters. A happy medium needs to be found.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #1581 on: December 15, 2019, 07:06:44 AM »
« Edited: December 15, 2019, 07:12:29 AM by jimrtex »

So what are the main agenda items of this newly expanded Conservative majority, that history will remember them for?  

Managed democracy.

And no, unfortunately I'm not even joking.

What does the Workington result mean to you?

Too many people putting "GEEHHDDDBBBRRREEEHHHXXIITTDUUUNNNNNN!!" above their genuine interest. Johnson has read the Trump playbook all too well.
Is your interest in their interest genuine?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1582 on: December 15, 2019, 07:19:52 AM »

The "this defeat was all about Corbyn" take has to explain why we got the very different results we did (in strongly pro-Brexit seats especially) two and a half years ago when we *also had him as leader*.

Now, it is quite likely he became (even) more electorally toxic in the intervening period. But given how differently "leave" areas performed in this election to "remain" ones, I can't help feeling this sort of ignores Occam's Razor. In 2017 we promised to respect the referendum result, this time we did not.

(or at least were overwhelmingly perceived as not doing so by those who voted for Brexit)

This enabled Johnson to run the sort of campaign that May had wanted to, but couldn't, last time.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1583 on: December 15, 2019, 07:23:55 AM »

The "this defeat was all about Corbyn" take has to explain why we got the very different results we did (in strongly pro-Brexit seats especially) two and a half years ago when we *also had him as leader*.

That's simple. There was an assumption that Corbyn would not last the post-election fall out, and many Labour candidates ran their own campaign as a result.

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1584 on: December 15, 2019, 07:25:34 AM »

The "this defeat was all about Corbyn" take has to explain why we got the very different results we did (in strongly pro-Brexit seats especially) two and a half years ago when we *also had him as leader*.

That's simple. There was an assumption that Corbyn would not last the post-election fall out, and many Labour candidates ran their own campaign as a result.

That is a factor, yes. But I seriously think it was dwarfed by Brexit this time.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1585 on: December 15, 2019, 07:30:58 AM »

The antisemitism stuff got considerably worse for Labour in the last couple of years. There was also the Salisbury attack.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1586 on: December 15, 2019, 07:35:39 AM »

The antisemitism stuff got considerably worse for Labour in the last couple of years. There was also the Salisbury attack.

Yes, these are also relevant (though FWIW if we are doing anecdata, I have had one person mention the Skrpal business to me unprompted *ever*) Its just that I don't think ignoring the elephant in the room is helpful - if there's one group that had an even worse election than Labour, its the #FBPE brigade. And whither those "PRO-REMAIN LABOUR WOULD BE 20 POINTS AHEAD" takes now?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1587 on: December 15, 2019, 07:40:40 AM »

Backing neither Leave nor Remain didn't exactly help Labour either. It allowed it to be seen as the hated enemy by all sides.
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adma
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« Reply #1588 on: December 15, 2019, 08:01:54 AM »

Something to remember: under leadership like Corbyn's, Labour was lucky to get even 200 seats (and a higher vote than 2010/15) this time--which actually suggests there might be a more-significant-than-it-looks share of voters willing to *bank* on the party under different leadership and circumstances.  That is, unless, in our deeply electorally-sorted times, it's a Labour version of the solid, inelastic bloc of Trump/GOP support "no matter what".  (But remember when, going into 2017, there was talk of Corbyn taking Labour to double-digit seat numbers?)
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SPQR
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« Reply #1589 on: December 15, 2019, 10:34:32 AM »

Maybe, just maybe, the problem was not so-much the new pro-remain position, but rather the fact that it was taken after almost 3 years of complete ambiguity.

Both leavers and remainers couldn't fully trust Labour. Trying to avoid the issue could work once (2017), but not forever.
And once you see a party being ambiguous so long on such an important issue, you don't really care about the beautiful red book and its content.
Also, it confirmed how poor Corbyn's leadership was. Having university students sing your name isn't leadership, for the record.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1590 on: December 15, 2019, 10:39:16 AM »

The problem with Labour’s Brexit position was really quite simple. They were simultaneously too leave, too remain and too ambiguous.

Although it’s a moot point, they’re Brexit position could have been « flying unicorns » and it wouldn’t have fixed the fundamental fact that people hated Corbyn.
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Hydera
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« Reply #1591 on: December 15, 2019, 10:57:13 AM »

The "this defeat was all about Corbyn" take has to explain why we got the very different results we did (in strongly pro-Brexit seats especially) two and a half years ago when we *also had him as leader*.

Now, it is quite likely he became (even) more electorally toxic in the intervening period. But given how differently "leave" areas performed in this election to "remain" ones, I can't help feeling this sort of ignores Occam's Razor. In 2017 we promised to respect the referendum result, this time we did not.

(or at least were overwhelmingly perceived as not doing so by those who voted for Brexit)

This enabled Johnson to run the sort of campaign that May had wanted to, but couldn't, last time.


Theresa may was a bad campaigner and before 2017 the ratings for both leaders converged from +30 fir Theresa to +5. And she was a bad campaigner and seemed too posh for a lot of people. Boris on the other hand had a approval rate that was 20-30% higher than corbyns. Also people dont realize in this thread how much having a bombastic personality like trump and bolsonaro, made a lot of working class who voted left wing to switch.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1592 on: December 15, 2019, 11:08:06 AM »

A lot them didn't switch to the Tories with Johnson - the Tory vote went up less than 400,000. Many of them just stayed at home.
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Hydera
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« Reply #1593 on: December 15, 2019, 01:00:49 PM »

A lot them didn't switch to the Tories with Johnson - the Tory vote went up less than 400,000. Many of them just stayed at home.


A lot of people did switch their vote to the conservatives. Boris lost tory remainers but those were in strongly upper middle class tory held areas in the south but he gained a lot in working class pro-brexit constituencies and then you had pro-brexit remainers that hated the tories but didnt want to vote labour because of their support of a second referendum so they parked their votes for the Brexit party. and considering the curse of FPTP in anglosphere countries it was devasting enough.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1594 on: December 15, 2019, 03:58:21 PM »

A lot them didn't switch to the Tories with Johnson - the Tory vote went up less than 400,000. Many of them just stayed at home.


A lot of people did switch their vote to the conservatives. Boris lost tory remainers but those were in strongly upper middle class tory held areas in the south but he gained a lot in working class pro-brexit constituencies and then you had pro-brexit remainers that hated the tories but didnt want to vote labour because of their support of a second referendum so they parked their votes for the Brexit party. and considering the curse of FPTP in anglosphere countries it was devasting enough.

Huh
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1595 on: December 15, 2019, 04:18:49 PM »

A lot them didn't switch to the Tories with Johnson - the Tory vote went up less than 400,000. Many of them just stayed at home.


A lot of people did switch their vote to the conservatives. Boris lost tory remainers but those were in strongly upper middle class tory held areas in the south but he gained a lot in working class pro-brexit constituencies and then you had pro-brexit remainers that hated the tories but didnt want to vote labour because of their support of a second referendum so they parked their votes for the Brexit party. and considering the curse of FPTP in anglosphere countries it was devasting enough.

Huh

Those who voted Remain but are accepting of Brexit?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1596 on: December 15, 2019, 04:24:56 PM »

A lot them didn't switch to the Tories with Johnson - the Tory vote went up less than 400,000. Many of them just stayed at home.


A lot of people did switch their vote to the conservatives. Boris lost tory remainers but those were in strongly upper middle class tory held areas in the south but he gained a lot in working class pro-brexit constituencies and then you had pro-brexit remainers that hated the tories but didnt want to vote labour because of their support of a second referendum so they parked their votes for the Brexit party. and considering the curse of FPTP in anglosphere countries it was devasting enough.

Huh

Those who voted Remain but are accepting of Brexit?

Maybe, but I would describe them slightly differently if so.

(and certainly don't think such people voted BxP, in the main)
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Hydera
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« Reply #1597 on: December 15, 2019, 05:02:10 PM »

A lot them didn't switch to the Tories with Johnson - the Tory vote went up less than 400,000. Many of them just stayed at home.


A lot of people did switch their vote to the conservatives. Boris lost tory remainers but those were in strongly upper middle class tory held areas in the south but he gained a lot in working class pro-brexit constituencies and then you had pro-brexit remainers that hated the tories but didnt want to vote labour because of their support of a second referendum so they parked their votes for the Brexit party. and considering the curse of FPTP in anglosphere countries it was devasting enough.

Huh

Those who voted Remain but are accepting of Brexit?


My fault, tory voting remainers who stayed with their party because of their support for economic conservatism far overriding their disagreement with leaving the EU.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1598 on: December 15, 2019, 05:02:58 PM »



I love you John. You're a fking hero. Cry

Honestly, as someone who never liked the guy (even back when I liked Corbyn), massive respect. It takes real guts to apologize so thoroughly.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1599 on: December 15, 2019, 05:15:34 PM »



I love you John. You're a fking hero. Cry

Honestly, as someone who never liked the guy (even back when I liked Corbyn), massive respect. It takes real guts to apologize so thoroughly.

Yeah, it seems pretty clear that McDonnell & Corbyn are trying to very publicly soak up as much of the blame as possible, so that when they leave front-bench politics, the party can start up again with a clean slate. And that's a very f**king admirable & mature strategy.
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