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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Babette d'Interlaken)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 86042 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1450 on: December 10, 2019, 10:34:24 pm »
« edited: December 11, 2019, 12:02:19 am by Oryxslayer »



One of the most visible places of improvement for Labour and the biggest dropoff for the conservatives from two weeks ago in Yougov's model was Scotland. However, I would caution inferring anything from this prediction. Why? Well...

The headline here is that 27 seats, nearly half of Scotland, are considered to be Leaning or Tossup. There is only one safe seat of the entire 59 for any party: Aberdeen North for the SNP. Quite a few seats moved multiple catergories and changed ratings entirely between the polls. Now, lets look back to 2017. About half of the miscalled seats in YouGov's model were in Scotland, with the SNP winning 17 more seats in YouGov's model then in reality.

Back before YouGov dropped their first model I warned that they made two mistakes surrounding their successes: they missed a lot of seats in Scotland (sometimes badly), and underpolled parties that camping on 'targeting' rather than 'playing wide.' So, I'm not arguing in favor of any ideological position. Instead, the shear amount of competitive seats should make it incredibly apparent: YouGov has only a limited idea of whats going on North of the border. This isn't really their fault though. We only have one years worth of data on a 4-party Scottish system compared to the decades down south, every seat having three notable parties at minimum messes with weights when compared to two-party contests in England, and tatical voting among unionists is a serious thing whereas it has only ever occurred in limited capacity in at least 500 seats. All models have Scottish problems though, so it isn't YouGov's fault. Less than one hour in to the 2017 BBC broadcast they say that there is an asterisk in regards to Scotland, since so many seats were projected as uncertain and on knife's edges. Hell, BBC's exit poll gave Gordon to the Lib-Dems, a projection that looks LOL tier in hindsight, but Scotland is just uncertain.

So, the same two warnings from two weeks ago apply. Expect YouGov to be undershooting the targeted parties, and they only have a marginally better idea of whats going on in Scotland when compared to us.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1451 on: December 10, 2019, 11:33:02 pm »


What's interesting here is Tories have almost identical share in each region as in 2017, only change is in each Labour has fallen thus helping Tories seatwise.
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marty
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« Reply #1452 on: December 10, 2019, 11:46:22 pm »

Who will win the white male without a college degree vote? Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1453 on: December 11, 2019, 01:43:24 am »

Worth remembering that this MRP estimate is based on a national vote share of Con43/Lab34.

If things turn out to actually be significantly closer than that......

Indeed. If the lead is really six and not nine, and the Tories lose three points off these MRP numbers, they aren't even close to a majority after tomorrow. I think a nine point gap is perfectly reasonable, of course, but if the recent controversies make the final results closer to the more Labour-friendly public polls (ComRes, for example), then it will get very interesting. The absolute only reason that the Tories have any shot at the majority is remainer vote-splitting in London and elsewhere. If tactical voting is used well then the Tories could be prevented from getting a majority even with a 7-point national spread.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1454 on: December 11, 2019, 04:12:41 am »

"Boris Johnson hid in a fridge while being pursued by a TV reporter attempting to interview him on the eve of the general election."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-hides-fridge-general-election-piers-morgan-good-morning-britain-live-tv-a9241631.html
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1455 on: December 11, 2019, 04:26:25 am »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 04:30:36 am by Mangez des pommes ! »


..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points
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DaWN
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« Reply #1456 on: December 11, 2019, 04:35:12 am »


..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points

Because he's facing Jeremy Corbyn.
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PSOL
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« Reply #1457 on: December 11, 2019, 04:51:24 am »


..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points

Because he's facing Jeremy Corbyn.
So this is what a mix of smears and austerity going on for years has done to the British psyche. Hopefully there is a victory for Labour here to reverse the damage stat.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1458 on: December 11, 2019, 04:53:14 am »

Who will win the white male without a college degree vote? Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn?

BoJo by a landslide.  Amongst whites, Tories consistently poll 2% higher than what they have nationally so that puts them around 45%.  Amongst males also somewhat higher than females so Tories around 47-48% amongst white males and considering Labour leading narrowly amongst those with degrees that likely means Tories are north of 50% amongst white males without a college degree.  Off course age is the biggest factor as Tories have massive lead amongst 65+ no matter how you slice the electorate and likewise Labour has massive lead amongst under 35 no matter how you slice the electorate so a 25 year old white male without a college degree probably is more likely to vote Labour than Tory.  But the tipping point age wise for this group is probably early 30s while overall its probably early 40s.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1459 on: December 11, 2019, 04:55:11 am »


..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points

Because he's facing Jeremy Corbyn.
So this is what a mix of smears and austerity going on for years has done to the British psyche. Hopefully there is a victory for Labour here to reverse the damage stat.

A Corbyn win could damage British economy so badly the Tories will need much harsher austerity to clean up after him.  Only saving grace is no chance of a Corbyn majority so most of his promises won't see light of day.  Most likely if a hung parliament, just PM long enough to see through another referendum and then another election.  May get some policies passed where there is consensus with SNP and Liberal Democrats but ones that go further than both those probably not likely to see light of day in next parliament assuming off course its a hung parliament.  I still think a Tory majority is the most likely outcome.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #1460 on: December 11, 2019, 04:55:31 am »

Who will win the white male without a college degree vote? Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn?

you don't get degrees at (most) FE colleges, you get degrees at universities
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1461 on: December 11, 2019, 05:04:38 am »

The real important question is what is the British-African-American vote doing? 🤔
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1462 on: December 11, 2019, 05:10:35 am »

The real important question is what is the British-African-American vote doing? 🤔

Black British vote heavily Labour.  While not divided by each race, they use the term BAME which is Black, Asian, and Middle Eastern and most polls show Labour in low 60s, while Tories in low 20s.  Off course within those groups you get variation.  I believe the Chinese community favours the Tories, but they are small enough only have a minor impact, while South Asians and Blacks who are the main non-white groups, they heavily favour Labour.  Its a big problem for the Tories in metropolitan areas.  Also if turnout is high enough could save some of the Birmingham suburban seats as well as some marginals in West Yorkshire that have large BAME populations yet voted heavily leave.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1463 on: December 11, 2019, 05:15:33 am »

21 Savage probably voting Corbyn.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1464 on: December 11, 2019, 05:21:54 am »

The real important question is what is the British-African-American vote doing? 🤔

Black British vote heavily Labour.  While not divided by each race, they use the term BAME which is Black, Asian, and Middle Eastern and most polls show Labour in low 60s, while Tories in low 20s.  Off course within those groups you get variation.  I believe the Chinese community favours the Tories, but they are small enough only have a minor impact, while South Asians and Blacks who are the main non-white groups, they heavily favour Labour.  Its a big problem for the Tories in metropolitan areas.  Also if turnout is high enough could save some of the Birmingham suburban seats as well as some marginals in West Yorkshire that have large BAME populations yet voted heavily leave.

The question might not have been entirely serious
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #1465 on: December 11, 2019, 05:23:33 am »

jokes are illegal on this forum
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1466 on: December 11, 2019, 05:38:10 am »

The real important question is what is the British-African-American vote doing?

Even more importantly: will it rain in British NoVa tomorrow?
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #1467 on: December 11, 2019, 06:24:38 am »


..............................

How can this f***king guy be leading by 10 points

I was convinced this was an onion article! xD
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1468 on: December 11, 2019, 06:36:10 am »

I would caution against over-analysing any of the shifts shown in individual constituencies in any of the various MRPs around now - by definition they won't mean much at all except in aggregate.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1469 on: December 11, 2019, 06:49:04 am »

I mean, if I had the choice between being interviewed by Piers Morgan and taking up residence inside a fridge, the fridge would win every time.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1470 on: December 11, 2019, 08:04:31 am »

Seeing Skinner go down would be a Portillo moment though.

The thing about that was that Portillo was a high profile cabinet minister, widely understood to be on the cusp of launching a leadership bid. He was also thought to be safe enough, that area being very different twenty two years ago (yes we're old) to what it is like today.

Whereas the potential loss of Bolsover has been heavily trailed across the media for months. And, bluntly, while Skinner used to be one of Labour's highest profile backbenchers, on the telly all the time, these days he is not. I suspect that a lot of people would be surprised to find he was still around and still running for election.

But in the end this sort of thing does not matter. Michael Portillo is, I gather, doing fine now. So is Ed Balls.
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Ishan
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« Reply #1471 on: December 11, 2019, 08:08:17 am »

How can you hide in a fridge, I tried when I was a 5 year old and failed.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1472 on: December 11, 2019, 08:23:32 am »

The real important question is what is the British-African-American vote doing?

Even more importantly: will it rain in British NoVa tomorrow?

It always rains in British NoVA.
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Old Europe
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« Reply #1473 on: December 11, 2019, 08:39:59 am »

How can you hide in a fridge, I tried when I was a 5 year old and failed.

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Zinneke
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« Reply #1474 on: December 11, 2019, 09:16:19 am »

Can someone explain why Johnson is specifically avoiding interviews with high profile journos like Neil and Piers Morgan and why exactly its so important for him not to be "exposed"? Is he that much of a ticking time bomb or is there some sort of grudge between him and the fourth estate (that he's a part of himself)?

I'm trying to understand why it generates so much media attention in itself.
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