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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85667 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #1425 on: December 10, 2019, 05:16:34 pm »

Seeing Skinner go down would be a Portillo moment though.
Dennis the Menace will not be so easily despatched.
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DANNT
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« Reply #1426 on: December 10, 2019, 05:21:26 pm »

Seeing Skinner go down would be a Portillo moment though.
I don't think  so since many of us have seen it coming, whereas the portillo moment was a huge surprise.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1427 on: December 10, 2019, 05:21:54 pm »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 05:26:06 pm by DistingFlyer »

Obviously these predictions may not come about - a number of long-held Labour constituencies didn't go down last time when it was thought they might - but if they do, we may be witnessing the political patterns in Britain get a little closer to what we've seen in Canada for a few decades now, with well-off urban & suburban seats seldom going Tory but many blue-collar ones being strong for them. That's slowly been coming to pass over the last few decades anyway, with 1997 being a big step in that direction, but it still hasn't shifted to the same degree that we've seen in Canada since the 1960s (and even more so since the 1990s).

(For instance, if Canadian voters still went the same way as British ones we'd probably have seen the Tories win Rosedale but lose Fort Mac.)
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Trocki-bidenista
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« Reply #1428 on: December 10, 2019, 05:22:51 pm »

East Devon is a Tory-Ind tie at 47%-47% Wink
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cp
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« Reply #1429 on: December 10, 2019, 05:27:52 pm »

Esher and Walton has a 46/44 Tory lead. That's a difference of about 500 votes.

I leafletted 150 houses today. 😊
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marty
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« Reply #1430 on: December 10, 2019, 05:37:13 pm »

When was the last time any of that solid red block of seats in northeast England along the coast ever went for the tories?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1431 on: December 10, 2019, 05:40:11 pm »



YouGov MRP in a more classic format. Lots of seats on knife edge, so I will be getting the Safe/Likely/Lean map out soon.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1432 on: December 10, 2019, 05:41:24 pm »

When was the last time any of that solid red block of seats in northeast England along the coast ever went for the tories?

1931, but it took a nationwide vote of 61%-31% (and a seat count of 521-52) to do it. The old 'North' region (Cumberland, Durham & Northumberland) went Tory 54%-39% and 28 seats to 3.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1433 on: December 10, 2019, 06:26:22 pm »

Okay, so I'm working my way through the map, and so far the Tories have in my opinion better numbers in the north (NW, NW, York) than two weeks ago. A handful of seats flipped to labour, but they still are marginal fights, and more previous likely labour seats are now marginal. Most gains are preserved and it wouldn't take much to outperform two weeks ago.  It's the South where things get rougher. This sounds like a familiar story...
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« Reply #1434 on: December 10, 2019, 06:31:39 pm »

Okay, so I'm working my way through the map, and so far the Tories have in my opinion better numbers in the north (NW, NW, York) than two weeks ago. A handful of seats flipped to labour, but they still are marginal fights, and more previous likely labour seats are now marginal. Most gains are preserved and it wouldn't take much to outperform two weeks ago.  It's the South where things get rougher. This sounds like a familiar story...

Honestly surprised there haven't been many U.S comparisons in this thread yet (if that was what you were referring to?).

There seems to be one political trend happening across most of the U.S, Canada, and Europe.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1435 on: December 10, 2019, 06:35:46 pm »

Okay, so I'm working my way through the map, and so far the Tories have in my opinion better numbers in the north (NW, NW, York) than two weeks ago. A handful of seats flipped to labour, but they still are marginal fights, and more previous likely labour seats are now marginal. Most gains are preserved and it wouldn't take much to outperform two weeks ago.  It's the South where things get rougher. This sounds like a familiar story...

Honestly surprised there haven't been many U.S comparisons in this thread yet (if that was what you were referring to?).

There seems to be one political trend happening across most of the U.S, Canada, and Europe.

I was referring to Brexit, but I guess one could start drawing suburban-style trends. The place Labour surged in 2017 was overwhelmingly in and around London, and if the positions of the parties were reversed, we would be talking about some red shires rather than blue bolsover.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1436 on: December 10, 2019, 06:45:04 pm »

An interesting update, to say the least, particularly in Scotland.

Much of the information we've been getting from the area seemed to be pointing towards Scotland kicking all but one of its Labour MPs out. The model, however, paints a different story. Instead it looks like Labour may be able to hold onto all of their seats, even Midlothian.

Meanwhile the Tories, who were predicted to see rather minimal losses, already start off with seats that look guaranteed to fall to the SNP(Stirling) and even more tossup seats than Labour.

It does seem like tactical voting from Unionists, though its interesting to see how strong its been going for Labour.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1437 on: December 10, 2019, 06:51:24 pm »

Wales is similar. Polls showed that Labour may have been in trouble in their marginals here, but instead the result is just two seats towards the Tories, seats that are practically tied.

It really seems that most of the movement will be in the North for this election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1438 on: December 10, 2019, 06:57:30 pm »

That's just the midpoint of the projection too... Tories could be between 311 and 367.

See Dagenham and Rainham is a toss-up there.
And Bolsover as a flip while High Peak is an easy hold.   Hmm

High Peak is very touristy area and generally that demographic is more friendly to progressive parties while Bolsover is fairly rural and was a former coal mining area but voted 70% leave.  Dennis Skinner may still hang on, but if he does, it will be due to his personal popularity.  Being 87, if he dies in the next five years or quits, there is a good chance the Tories will pick it up in a by-election unless they become wildly unpopular.  Still if you look at all the close ones, each party will win some they are slightly behind and each will lose a few slightly ahead and you will have a few upsets probably due to local reasons that the MRP won't pick up.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1439 on: December 10, 2019, 07:05:23 pm »

High Peak is mostly old mill towns on the fringe of the Manchester conurbation. Very few people live in the touristy parts.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1440 on: December 10, 2019, 07:12:07 pm »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 07:27:45 pm by Oryxslayer »



Sometimes you just don't know how a regions is going to vote. All six light red/blue pictured here are tossups tilting Lab/Con, with Ynys having PC in the  mix of course. Seems likely that all (well, maybe not Ynys) behave similarly and swing or not as a unit.

Whats weird is that we have two YouGov polls, this and the welsh barometer, saying contradictory things. Wonder which will win. Both The barometer and the MRP were very accurate last time so...

EDIT: See below from Jai. Two welsh YouGov polls from similar times, two different results.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1441 on: December 10, 2019, 07:15:20 pm »

Yougov MRP regional vote shares

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Cassius
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« Reply #1442 on: December 10, 2019, 07:36:32 pm »

What exactly are they basing this South Cambridgeshire insanity on? Allenís not running there and the Tories won it by 25 points in 2017 (with the Lib Dems in third).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1443 on: December 10, 2019, 07:40:32 pm »

What exactly are they basing this South Cambridgeshire insanity on? Allenís not running there and the Tories won it by 25 points in 2017 (with the Lib Dems in third).

Same reason Esher and Walton is a tossup: they have data favoring the lib-dems and their targeted campaign style with those demographics in those regions.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1444 on: December 10, 2019, 08:24:37 pm »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

In 2005 (especially) and also to a significant degree in 2010, the Lib Dems had a huge number of votes locked away in safe Labour seats, primarily due to people who are otherwise down-the-line left-wingers voting against Labour over Iraq (and in 2010 in part due to various Lib Dems promises that were perceived as favorable to those on the left), keeping Labour's popular vote totals down while not affecting their seat counts much at all.
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« Reply #1445 on: December 10, 2019, 08:27:10 pm »
« Edited: December 10, 2019, 08:30:31 pm by MissScarlett »

I have some questions about races.

Scotland
- did any seats in Scotland vote leave in the referendum?
- what % of the snp vote voted to leave the European Union. Are they politically homeless with the SNP being so for leaving the uk but staying in EU?

Wales
- Aberconwy has a local council rep for labour who ran in 2017 and reduced the majority from 4-5k to under 1000 votes. The sitting MP has stood down and the tories have a candidate that was introduced in November that lives in Suffolk. Why is the labour candidate not winning?
- Does the remain/tactical vote work with Plaid? I know they did a pack with Liberals and Greens but in races where they get 10% they hurt Labour like Aberconwy.
- Ynys Mon - why is this such a volatile 4 way marginal?

England
- Why are the liberals running candidates in labour seats where they have no chance of winning? (Red wall) Is it true liberals hate labour more than the conservatives and they donít care who wins so just run the candidate?
- What are the well off remainers who typically vote Tory doing with their vote in the north/midlands? Any Tory remainers moving over?
- why is Loughborough a show me seat? (Predicted virtually every winner). It has a well regarded university but unlike other uni towns) Is Canterbury similar to Loughborough?
- why is the West Midlands so anti-EU? Stoke, Wolverhampton, West Bromwich- labour predicted to lose 10-12 seats here.
- what caused Cornwall seats to swing dramatically to labour? They were always polling very low and in third place and liberals had mps here and it completely changed.

- What happens if Tories win majority and Boris loses in Uxbridge? Who goes to the Queen and asks her to be Prime Minister ?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1446 on: December 10, 2019, 08:29:04 pm »

Courtesy of a Northern Irish poster here:

Quote
Okay, so nearly a week after they said it ought to be out and four days of trickling it out by various media outlets LucidTalk's full poll is out in a form I don't need to buy the Sunday Times or mine deep into twiter for. Excluding Don't Knows they have (with changes compared to GE17):

DUP 30% (-6%)
SF 25% (-4.4%)
APNI 16% (+8.1%)
SDLP 13% (+1.3%)
UUP 11% (+0.7%)
GPNI 0.1% (-0.7%)
Others* 4.9% (+1.2%)

Aontu, PBP, UKIP, Conservatives, a couple of Indos

There is also constituency information, which ought to be taken with an even bigger grain of salt than usual with LucidTalk:

Antrim East
DUP 49% (-8.3%)
APNI 19.9% (+4.3%)
UUP 12.9% (+1%)
SF 6.3% (-3%)
SDLP 5% (+1.6%)
Others: 6.9% (+4.4%)

Antrim North
DUP 51.6% (-7.2%)
APNI 14.2% (+8.6%)
UUP 10.3% (+3.1%)
SF 11.5% (-4.8%)
SDLP 9.2% (+3.9%)
Others 3.2% (N/A)

Antrim South
DUP 31.7% (-6.5%)
APNI 25.9% (+18.5%)
UUP 21.6% (-9.2%)
SF 12.9% (-5.3%)
SDLP 8% (-2.5%)

Belfast East
DUP 48.3% (-7.5%)
APNI: 46.6% (+10.6%)
UUP 5.2% (+1.9%)

Belfast North
DUP 43.1% (-3.1%)
SF 39.8% (-1.9%)
APNI 17.1% (+11.7%)

Belfast South
SDLP 34.4% (+8.5%)
APNI 26.5% (+8.3%)
DUP 26.1% (-4.3%)
UUP 5.7% (+2.2%)
Others: 7.3% (+6.7%)

Belfast West
SF 60.7% (-6%)
SDLP 9.5% (+2.5%)
DUP 8.3% (-5.2%)
PBP 8.2% (-2%)
APNI 6.7% (+4.9%)
Others 6.6% (+5.7%)

Down North
DUP 40.2% (+2.1%)
APNI 40% (+30.7%)
UUP 15.8%* (N/A)
Others 4% (+1.5%)

*They actually mark Others and UUP the other way around, but I'm making the bold assumption that the Tories aren't going to go all mid-90s on us and Chambers isn't going to lose his deposit.

Down South
SF 41.6% (+1.7%)
SDLP 29.8% (-5.3%)
DUP 10.8% (-6.6%)
APNI 9.2% (+5.6%)
UUP 5.3% (+1.4%)
Others 3.2% (N/A)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone
SF 46.3% (-0.9%)
UUP 40.4% (-5.1%)
SDLP 6.2% (+1.3%)
APNI 4.5% (+3.8%)
Others 2.6% (N/A)

Foyle
SDLP 38.4% (-0.9%)
SF 34.7% (-5%)
DUP 9.7% (-6.4%)
APNI 7% (+5.2%)
UUP 4.4% (N/A)
PBP 2.3% (-0.7%)
Others 3.4% (N/A)

Lagan Valley
DUP 51.2% (-8.4%)
UUP 17.6% (+0.8%)
APNI 14.8% (+3.7%)
SDLP 8.9% (+1.4%)
SF 2.4% (-1.1%)
Others 5.1% (+3.6%)

Londonderry East
DUP 39.7% (-8.4%)
SF 19.5% (-7%)
SDLP 13% (+2.2%)
APNI 12% (+5.8%)
UUP 9.1% (+1.5%)
Others 6.6% (+5.8%)

Newry and Armagh
SF 41.8% (-6.1%)
SDLP 19.5% (+2.6%)
DUP 16.8% (-7.8%)
UUP 9.9% (+1.6%)
APNI 8.5% (+6.2%)
Others 3.5% (N/A)

Strangford
DUP 53.7% (-8.3%)
APNI 18.2% (+3.5%)
UUP 12.3% (+0.9%)
SDLP 7.6% (+1.4%)
SF 1.9% (-0.9%)
GPNI 1.2% (-0.4%)
Others 5.2% (+3.9%)

Tyrone West
SF 43.7% (-7%)
DUP 18.6% (-8.3%)
SDLP 15.2% (+2.2%)
APNI 8.2% (+5.9%)
UUP 6.7% (+1.5%)
GPNI 0.8% (-0.2%)
Others 6.8% (+5.9%)

Ulster Mid
SF 48.6% (-5.9%)
DUP 19% (-7.9%)
SDLP 12.2% (+2.4%)
APNI 8.5% (+6.2%)
UUP 8.1% (+1.6%)
Others 3.6% (N/A)

Upper Bann
DUP 38.4% (-5.1%)
SF 21.2% (-6.7%)
UUP 17.9% (+2.5%)
SDLP 11.5% (+2.9%)
APNI 11.1% (+6.6%)

Some interesting possibilities raised there, though not sure how much I believe others. Pengelly in third in Belfast South would be delicious, and those are some incredibly tight margins in Belfast East and North Down. Alliance keeping deposits in seventeen seats out of sixteen would be very nice, though some of the other bits that pop up are dubious (for one I'll be very surprised if the SDLP beat either of the DUP and PBP in Belfast West, let alone both, and Aontu beating the UUP in South Belfast...well it sure is something).

Considering how the APNI functions like a mini-Lib-Dem with their vote usually concentrated in Greater East Belfast (Belfast East/South and the Near suburbs in North down), this poll is promising. It's more likely the Alliance does worse than expected outside their home base than the poll projects, and better inside. So there are e potentially two APNI gains here. Other than that, looks like what we normally expect: 2 SDLP gains, and potentially close races in F & S Tyrone and Belfast North.

A result like this would honestly be so heartbreaking. The Alliance so close to breaking through in not just one but four seats, yet falling short in all of them.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1447 on: December 10, 2019, 09:04:44 pm »

I have some questions about races.

Scotland
- did any seats in Scotland vote leave in the referendum?
- what % of the snp vote voted to leave the European Union. Are they politically homeless with the SNP being so for leaving the uk but staying in EU?

Wales
- Aberconwy has a local council rep for labour who ran in 2017 and reduced the majority from 4-5k to under 1000 votes. The sitting MP has stood down and the tories have a candidate that was introduced in November that lives in Suffolk. Why is the labour candidate not winning?
- Does the remain/tactical vote work with Plaid? I know they did a pack with Liberals and Greens but in races where they get 10% they hurt Labour like Aberconwy.
- Ynys Mon - why is this such a volatile 4 way marginal?

England
- Why are the liberals running candidates in labour seats where they have no chance of winning? (Red wall) Is it true liberals hate labour more than the conservatives and they donít care who wins so just run the candidate?
- What are the well off remainers who typically vote Tory doing with their vote in the north/midlands? Any Tory remainers moving over?
- why is Loughborough a show me seat? (Predicted virtually every winner). It has a well regarded university but unlike other uni towns) Is Canterbury similar to Loughborough?
- why is the West Midlands so anti-EU? Stoke, Wolverhampton, West Bromwich- labour predicted to lose 10-12 seats here.
- what caused Cornwall seats to swing dramatically to labour? They were always polling very low and in third place and liberals had mps here and it completely changed.

- What happens if Tories win majority and Boris loses in Uxbridge? Who goes to the Queen and asks her to be Prime Minister ?


I'll try to answer these to the best of my ability. Remember, you have to put yourself in someones shoes and try and look at things from their perspective rather than consider just your own.

Scotland

Banff and Buchan voted for Brexit, at least according to my data. It's a constituency of fishing communities in the highlands that wanted out of the EU's fisheries policy. I'm not sure if there is data on SNP/Brexit voters. However, Brexit is not the most important issue in Scotland, if it was then the Tories would be back at 1. The Yes/No polarization is more determinant these days. Now, this offers some data on your second question. Back before 2014, the SNP's best results were in the Highlands, the same area now swinging hard to the Conservatives. This is partially because the collapse of Scottish Labour handed the SNP a base that they actively could court on all fronts: the corridor between Glasgow and Edinburgh. Their old base was never committed to all the SNP proposals, these same regions voted fiercely against independence. So, some of it was death of the old generation, and some of it was the Oil and Fishing industries looking for parochial parties opposed to the Green/Europhilic parties of the strip.

Wales

Your question about Aberconwy is simple: the seat was previously held by a Tory and it voted for Brexit. Frankly, I'm surprised it's even in the same group of seats as the rest of the northern tossups. Now, sometimes there are things unique to candidates that make MRP less believable in a handful of seats. However, the UK has a proud tradition of airlifting in candidates - locals really only matter when the race is close, or you are a Lib-Dem. Plenty of Tory and Labour MPs never cared about their safe seat until the party said 'you've proven your loyalty, go stand there.'

Now, about Plaid. The PC vote is either incredibly inflexible or incredibly volatile depending on the voter. If you identify as Welsh, speak welsh, and this is your heritage, you will nearly always vote Plaid. Then you have the second group who identify as welsh but without the roots, and are more on the PC's to be against Labour. More of these exist at the local level. They will always hop over and vote differently at the Westminster level. this also answers your question about Ynys Mon, it's a place with a respectable amount of Welsh speakers.

England

If you are a national party, you run or cross-endorse as close to 631 candidates as you can get. Simple. A good number are sacrificial lambs who will never get a penny from the central office, but they are there to earn votes and continue to prove you are a national party. Same thing happens in Canada. the Lib-Dem brand in a good number of places is "not Tory" and "not Labour."

Polling seems to suggest there is a bit of a divergence between Northern ans Southern Tory remainers. Northern remainers have an additional dichotomy between them and their working class neighbors to reinforce their Conservative vote, such a divide is less a factor in the south. But the Tory majorities are larger in the south.

Those seats to the west of Birmingham are very in favor of Leave. Also, Boris's most favorable region is the midlands, at least according to YouGov's opinion polling regions. So take that as you will.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1448 on: December 10, 2019, 09:33:59 pm »

Worth remembering that this MRP estimate is based on a national vote share of Con43/Lab34.

If things turn out to actually be significantly closer than that......
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Gary J
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« Reply #1449 on: December 10, 2019, 09:39:35 pm »

Miss Scarlett - I can respond about what happens if the Conservatives win but Boris loses his own seat. Both from Canadian precedent and because the UK Conservatives have apparently game played the scenario, we have an answer to the question.

Boris Johnson remains Prime Minister until he resigns or is defeated on a motion of no confidence. It is all right for the Prime Minister not to have a seat in Parliament for a short time. It should be noted that UK politicians are not as strongly tied to one area as US politicians, so it is quite common for a long serving politician to move to another constituency, as Johnson himself did since he was MP for Henley before he became Mayor of London and subsequently won his current seat in Greater London.

For example the Earl of Home was appointed Prime Minister on 19 October 1963. He disclaimed his peerages and left the House of Lords on 23 October 1963. As Sir Alec Douglas-Home he was Prime Minister without a seat in Parliament, until winning a by-election to become a member of the House of Commons on 7 November 1963.

I should perhaps also mention that before the 1920s a newly appointed Prime Minister (who was a member of the House of Commons) had to seek re-election in his parliamentary constituency, so it was not unknown for the PM not to be a member of parliament at the first meeting of a new Parliament.

The Canadian precedent I mentioned was in 1945. Prime Minister, William Lyon Mackenzie King's Liberal Party won the general election but the PM was defeated in his own riding. He continued in office and won a by-election in a new seat.

The UK Conservative plan is believed to be that an MP with a safe seat would be created a peer. That would move the politician to the House of Lords and cause a by-election in the safe seat. Boris Johnson would hope to win the by-election. In the interim Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab would act as Conservative leader in the House of Commons, assuming he won his seat.

If despite expectations, Johnson lost the by-election then he would probably have to resign. There is a precedent from 1964 when Patrick Gordon-Walker lost his seat in the general election but was still appointed Foreign Secretary. He lost a by-election and then resigned.
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