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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85636 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1400 on: December 10, 2019, 08:45:54 am »



Oooh, equally pretty *and* useful map.

Any idea why Newcastle is expected a bit behind Sunderland this time around?
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1401 on: December 10, 2019, 10:06:28 am »


He has maybe minimised the fallout by appearing in public and taking it on the chin, rather than hiding away as a CERTAIN VERY PROMINENT TORY POLITICIAN would surely have done.

(and I bet a few Tories have said some very quotable things about BoJo "off the record", no?)
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1402 on: December 10, 2019, 10:19:01 am »



Nobody post it here.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1403 on: December 10, 2019, 10:33:21 am »


It feels somewhat revealing that the big story today has been a Labour politician saying something that everybody informed thought they thought anyway.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1404 on: December 10, 2019, 10:55:23 am »



Cheesy Cheesy
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cp
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« Reply #1405 on: December 10, 2019, 10:57:25 am »



Nobody post it here.

I won't, but for the record the fake twitter account it was shared from is called Britain_Erects.

I *definitely* didn't giggle like a 12 year old when I saw that.
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« Reply #1406 on: December 10, 2019, 11:41:30 am »

When does the latest Yougov MRP results come out?

I think at 22:00 UK time (GMT).

Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-yougov-mrp/yougov-to-release-final-mrp-poll-for-uk-election-on-december-10-idUKKBN1YA1VN
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1407 on: December 10, 2019, 01:56:34 pm »

Corbyn gaining on Johnson.

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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1408 on: December 10, 2019, 02:54:48 pm »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.
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Soccer Moms Against Sanders
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« Reply #1409 on: December 10, 2019, 03:06:21 pm »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1410 on: December 10, 2019, 03:10:30 pm »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

Maybe Blair has a different take on this, but it doesn't seem like a 2005-specific issue. FPP from the 1990s until 2015 gave Labour a big advantage. In 2015 that changed all of a sudden, I think due to the collapse of the LibDems and the SNP surge, and now FPP makes it harder for Labour to win than for the Tories to win.
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Soccer Moms Against Sanders
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« Reply #1411 on: December 10, 2019, 03:22:32 pm »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

Maybe Blair has a different take on this, but it doesn't seem like a 2005-specific issue. FPP from the 1990s until 2015 gave Labour a big advantage. In 2015 that changed all of a sudden, I think due to the collapse of the LibDems and the SNP surge, and now FPP makes it harder for Labour to win than for the Tories to win.

Ah, this does make sense. Labour won about 40% of the seats with 29% of the vote in 2010, but won roughly the same number of seats when their vote share shot up to 40% in 2017. I think a lot of this has to do with not having a firewall (or "friewall", as the forums best poster likes to say) in Scotland, as you said.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1412 on: December 10, 2019, 03:30:04 pm »

The key in all of this is going to be Labour marginals in the North. If Johnson can pick up 20 or more, he will almost certainly have an overall majority.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1413 on: December 10, 2019, 04:27:09 pm »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

Just a hunch but I think 2005 saw a chunk of the Labour vote Lib Dem over Iraq whilst also seeing a still significant swing to the Tories, but not enough to get rid of enough seats to deny the Tories a majority.

If I was a Labour MP in 2005 in a marginal seat I'd have a hospital and tons of schools to point to on my leaflets There's a reason a lot of the 1997 intake retired in 2010 when the economy went down the pan.
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Ishan
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« Reply #1414 on: December 10, 2019, 04:30:58 pm »

How come most seats in the UK are projected in the early morning?
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1415 on: December 10, 2019, 04:32:26 pm »

The key in all of this is going to be Labour marginals in the North. If Johnson can pick up 20 or more, he will almost certainly have an overall majority.

I'm thinking aloud & being lazy myself but there's really a big range of the so-called Northern marginals- some like Great Grimsby and Barrow are long time Labour held seats but have never been safe, others showed cracks in 2017 like Wakefield & Sedgefield and there's a final lot like Barnsley East and Leigh where you'd be seeing huge majorities being swept away.


How come most seats in the UK are projected in the early morning?

Counting is done from 10PM onwards & some councils run it like a machine.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1416 on: December 10, 2019, 04:41:06 pm »

As I said earlier iirc 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2017 has seen a lot of people who claim to hate the current leader turn out for Labour in the end- there's a whole range of reasons why, but there is always a chunk of the Labour vote that is both tribal but also hostile to the party.

It appears that 2005 really was about vote efficiency more than anything else. Labour only narrowly won the popular vote but swept most of the swing seats. Did disgruntled labour voters feel more free to vote for another party in safe seats than those who were in marginals?

Just a hunch but I think 2005 saw a chunk of the Labour vote Lib Dem over Iraq whilst also seeing a still significant swing to the Tories, but not enough to get rid of enough seats to deny the Tories a majority.

If I was a Labour MP in 2005 in a marginal seat I'd have a hospital and tons of schools to point to on my leaflets There's a reason a lot of the 1997 intake retired in 2010 when the economy went down the pan.

It's actually fairly impressive how the Labour vote completely fell off a cliff in a lot of those southern marginals in 2010. I think there's been a fair bit of demographic change too, like Medway or the Thames Estuary are not so solidly working class in the way they used to be.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1417 on: December 10, 2019, 04:41:40 pm »

Courtesy of a Northern Irish poster here:

Quote
Okay, so nearly a week after they said it ought to be out and four days of trickling it out by various media outlets LucidTalk's full poll is out in a form I don't need to buy the Sunday Times or mine deep into twiter for. Excluding Don't Knows they have (with changes compared to GE17):

DUP 30% (-6%)
SF 25% (-4.4%)
APNI 16% (+8.1%)
SDLP 13% (+1.3%)
UUP 11% (+0.7%)
GPNI 0.1% (-0.7%)
Others* 4.9% (+1.2%)

Aontu, PBP, UKIP, Conservatives, a couple of Indos

There is also constituency information, which ought to be taken with an even bigger grain of salt than usual with LucidTalk:

Antrim East
DUP 49% (-8.3%)
APNI 19.9% (+4.3%)
UUP 12.9% (+1%)
SF 6.3% (-3%)
SDLP 5% (+1.6%)
Others: 6.9% (+4.4%)

Antrim North
DUP 51.6% (-7.2%)
APNI 14.2% (+8.6%)
UUP 10.3% (+3.1%)
SF 11.5% (-4.8%)
SDLP 9.2% (+3.9%)
Others 3.2% (N/A)

Antrim South
DUP 31.7% (-6.5%)
APNI 25.9% (+18.5%)
UUP 21.6% (-9.2%)
SF 12.9% (-5.3%)
SDLP 8% (-2.5%)

Belfast East
DUP 48.3% (-7.5%)
APNI: 46.6% (+10.6%)
UUP 5.2% (+1.9%)

Belfast North
DUP 43.1% (-3.1%)
SF 39.8% (-1.9%)
APNI 17.1% (+11.7%)

Belfast South
SDLP 34.4% (+8.5%)
APNI 26.5% (+8.3%)
DUP 26.1% (-4.3%)
UUP 5.7% (+2.2%)
Others: 7.3% (+6.7%)

Belfast West
SF 60.7% (-6%)
SDLP 9.5% (+2.5%)
DUP 8.3% (-5.2%)
PBP 8.2% (-2%)
APNI 6.7% (+4.9%)
Others 6.6% (+5.7%)

Down North
DUP 40.2% (+2.1%)
APNI 40% (+30.7%)
UUP 15.8%* (N/A)
Others 4% (+1.5%)

*They actually mark Others and UUP the other way around, but I'm making the bold assumption that the Tories aren't going to go all mid-90s on us and Chambers isn't going to lose his deposit.

Down South
SF 41.6% (+1.7%)
SDLP 29.8% (-5.3%)
DUP 10.8% (-6.6%)
APNI 9.2% (+5.6%)
UUP 5.3% (+1.4%)
Others 3.2% (N/A)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone
SF 46.3% (-0.9%)
UUP 40.4% (-5.1%)
SDLP 6.2% (+1.3%)
APNI 4.5% (+3.8%)
Others 2.6% (N/A)

Foyle
SDLP 38.4% (-0.9%)
SF 34.7% (-5%)
DUP 9.7% (-6.4%)
APNI 7% (+5.2%)
UUP 4.4% (N/A)
PBP 2.3% (-0.7%)
Others 3.4% (N/A)

Lagan Valley
DUP 51.2% (-8.4%)
UUP 17.6% (+0.8%)
APNI 14.8% (+3.7%)
SDLP 8.9% (+1.4%)
SF 2.4% (-1.1%)
Others 5.1% (+3.6%)

Londonderry East
DUP 39.7% (-8.4%)
SF 19.5% (-7%)
SDLP 13% (+2.2%)
APNI 12% (+5.8%)
UUP 9.1% (+1.5%)
Others 6.6% (+5.8%)

Newry and Armagh
SF 41.8% (-6.1%)
SDLP 19.5% (+2.6%)
DUP 16.8% (-7.8%)
UUP 9.9% (+1.6%)
APNI 8.5% (+6.2%)
Others 3.5% (N/A)

Strangford
DUP 53.7% (-8.3%)
APNI 18.2% (+3.5%)
UUP 12.3% (+0.9%)
SDLP 7.6% (+1.4%)
SF 1.9% (-0.9%)
GPNI 1.2% (-0.4%)
Others 5.2% (+3.9%)

Tyrone West
SF 43.7% (-7%)
DUP 18.6% (-8.3%)
SDLP 15.2% (+2.2%)
APNI 8.2% (+5.9%)
UUP 6.7% (+1.5%)
GPNI 0.8% (-0.2%)
Others 6.8% (+5.9%)

Ulster Mid
SF 48.6% (-5.9%)
DUP 19% (-7.9%)
SDLP 12.2% (+2.4%)
APNI 8.5% (+6.2%)
UUP 8.1% (+1.6%)
Others 3.6% (N/A)

Upper Bann
DUP 38.4% (-5.1%)
SF 21.2% (-6.7%)
UUP 17.9% (+2.5%)
SDLP 11.5% (+2.9%)
APNI 11.1% (+6.6%)

Some interesting possibilities raised there, though not sure how much I believe others. Pengelly in third in Belfast South would be delicious, and those are some incredibly tight margins in Belfast East and North Down. Alliance keeping deposits in seventeen seats out of sixteen would be very nice, though some of the other bits that pop up are dubious (for one I'll be very surprised if the SDLP beat either of the DUP and PBP in Belfast West, let alone both, and Aontu beating the UUP in South Belfast...well it sure is something).

Considering how the APNI functions like a mini-Lib-Dem with their vote usually concentrated in Greater East Belfast (Belfast East/South and the Near suburbs in North down), this poll is promising. It's more likely the Alliance does worse than expected outside their home base than the poll projects, and better inside. So there are e potentially two APNI gains here. Other than that, looks like what we normally expect: 2 SDLP gains, and potentially close races in F & S Tyrone and Belfast North.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1418 on: December 10, 2019, 04:54:04 pm »

How come most seats in the UK are projected in the early morning?

They're not projected. They're actually counted on the night, by volunteers who often work as cashiers in banks.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1419 on: December 10, 2019, 05:02:19 pm »



If you're a Tory this could be seen as a blessing in disguise. Still a comfortable majority (larger than Cameron's in 2015) but close enough to drive home the point that people need to turn out and vote.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1420 on: December 10, 2019, 05:04:37 pm »

That's just the midpoint of the projection too... Tories could be between 311 and 367.

See Dagenham and Rainham is a toss-up there.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1421 on: December 10, 2019, 05:06:46 pm »

I'm already noting there is a lot of flux from the previous MRP, for example Esher and Walton (rightly) slid all the way to tossup from likely tory, meanwhile Sedgefeild went from toss-Lab to toss-Con.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1422 on: December 10, 2019, 05:09:10 pm »

Sedgefield was of course Tony Blair's seat.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1423 on: December 10, 2019, 05:09:50 pm »

That's just the midpoint of the projection too... Tories could be between 311 and 367.

See Dagenham and Rainham is a toss-up there.
And Bolsover as a flip while High Peak is an easy hold.   Hmm
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1424 on: December 10, 2019, 05:11:33 pm »

Seeing Skinner go down would be a Portillo moment though.
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