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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85793 times)
CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1325 on: December 08, 2019, 12:26:45 pm »
« edited: December 08, 2019, 12:30:31 pm by CumbrianLeftie »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.

There are three main possibilities of the polling being wrong (and in Labour's favour) at this point:

1) the uncertainties of weighting the 2016 referendum more than three years on;
2) polls overestimating the elderly turnout and/or understating how many young people will vote;
3) not taking fully into account a notably high number of new registrations (again, mostly youth)

All are possible, none can be relied on. But given that there is at least a chance they will apply, as a Tory I would be nervous at any poll putting them much less than 10 points ahead......

(and numbers 2 and 3 of those factors, if true, would also play into Labour's superior ground game)
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1326 on: December 08, 2019, 12:29:17 pm »

The polls can be wrong. Relying on them being wrong and wrong in your favour is not a good strategy.

Conservative minority government is the best possible outcome now for Labour.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1327 on: December 08, 2019, 12:33:35 pm »

The polls can be wrong. Relying on them being wrong and wrong in your favour is not a good strategy.

Conservative minority government is the best possible outcome now for Labour.

Nobody is "relying" on anything. But all those points are serious possibilities, not blind faith.

Quite a few Labour people now genuinely think that the polls are understating their position at least a bit - that wasn't really the case at the start of the campaign.

Re your last point - barring a real miracle I agree the Tories will be the biggest party. The tantalising prospect is if they were to fall just short of a majority even *with* DUP support - what then?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1328 on: December 08, 2019, 12:35:33 pm »

Then we end up with more mess, because there is more chance of me playing table tennis with Daisy Ridley than there is of the DUP backing a Corbyn-led government.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1329 on: December 08, 2019, 12:37:35 pm »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.

There are three main possibilities of the polling being wrong (and in Labour's favour) at this point:

1) the uncertainties of weighting the 2016 referendum more than three years on;
2) polls overestimating the elderly turnout and/or understating how many young people will vote;
3) not taking fully into account a notably high number of new registrations (again, mostly youth)

All are possible, none can be relied on. But given that there is at least a chance they will apply, as a Tory I would be nervous at any poll putting them much less than 10 points ahead......

(and numbers 2 and 3 of those factors, if true, would also play into Labour's superior ground game)

I would add a fourth, especially since one would hope polls have corrected for the above three.

4) The noticeably high number of undecided voters right now pick Labour.

Hop into your search bar and you will no doubt find any piece on how this group is larger then normal this late into the campaign. Now it isn't ginormous, and there's a lot of mixed views and divergent past votes in that pool, but it is still a lot. If they move on average to one sole camp, that will change the picture.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1330 on: December 08, 2019, 12:38:14 pm »

In the above scenario Tories *and* DUP wouldn't have a majority - so the question is if all the other non-Tory parties could cobble something together for at least as long as it takes to get another referendum on Brexit. Though the likelihood of another GE not long after that would have to be pretty high.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1331 on: December 08, 2019, 12:38:58 pm »

Indeed. The DUP are never going to support Withdrawal Agreement Mark 2, that is for sure.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1332 on: December 08, 2019, 12:41:15 pm »

Part of the question is, compared to 2017, how much is people being terrified of Boris Johnson a motivator for people to turn out when compared to the enthusiasm around Corbyn that was present in 2017 and almost totally absent this time.

One thing I've wondered surrounding all the stereotypes and "analysis" in the media surrounding the last few years in UK politics. Basically all the discussion revolves around the triangle ofolder, working class people in the provinces; younger graduates in big cities; and middle-aged middle class people in comfortable suburbs. Yet, a pretty solid majority of people under the age of 35 are not university educated, and presumably a lot of them don't live in London, Manchester or Bristol; and yet everyone behaves as if such a person could not possibly exist?
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7sergi9
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« Reply #1333 on: December 08, 2019, 12:43:59 pm »

the thread is infested with leftist fans pro remain.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1334 on: December 08, 2019, 12:44:26 pm »

Part of the question is, compared to 2017, how much is people being terrified of Boris Johnson a motivator for people to turn out when compared to the enthusiasm around Corbyn that was present in 2017 and almost totally absent this time.

Well up to a point. There are still big attendances for Labour meetings/rallies at this election, and in some cases even more people are turning out to campaign for the party than was the case two years ago.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1335 on: December 08, 2019, 12:44:32 pm »

Glad you're enjoying it.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1336 on: December 08, 2019, 12:47:55 pm »


I always find elections fascinating Smiley

One final question before I shut up for the time being - IF the polls mostly get it wrong in similar fashion to 2017, the time may have come to ask "are 'shy Labour' voters now a thing?".
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1337 on: December 08, 2019, 12:48:36 pm »

Part of the question is, compared to 2017, how much is people being terrified of Boris Johnson a motivator for people to turn out when compared to the enthusiasm around Corbyn that was present in 2017 and almost totally absent this time.

Well up to a point. There are still big attendances for Labour meetings/rallies at this election, and in some cases even more people are turning out to campaign for the party than was the case two years ago.

This doesn't mean that they are getting favourable reception at the doorstep. If people are even answering the door.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1338 on: December 08, 2019, 12:48:48 pm »

the thread is infested with leftist fans pro remain.

So what are you going to do about it? Scream la la la with your fingers in your ears?

I recognized the board is biased towards my left+Remain views. So I tempered my opinions and try to present the other side when possible, so that this doesn't become an echo-chamber and posters actually recognize whats going on outside. I try to play devils advocate when possible, you made this post in what appears to be an attempt to try and "TrIggER tHE LaBOurITeS."
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1339 on: December 08, 2019, 12:49:51 pm »


I always find elections fascinating Smiley

One final question before I shut up for the time being - IF the polls mostly get it wrong in similar fashion to 2017, the time may have come to ask "are 'shy Labour' voters now a thing?".

Quite possibly. I'd say that many Labour voters are deeply embarrassed by Corbyn Outriders MC.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1340 on: December 08, 2019, 02:20:26 pm »



Labour...down?
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marty
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« Reply #1341 on: December 08, 2019, 02:36:36 pm »

Guys, labour surge ainít happening

This margin is not budging
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1342 on: December 08, 2019, 03:05:23 pm »

Looking over the general weekend glut there does appear to be some (relatively mild) herding going on, with a couple of exceptions. A general consensus on a swing somewhere in the region of 3.0 to 4.5. Of course this useless electoral system means in terms of seats that's quite a wide region. And they may be wrong, and things may move in the week. Who knows.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #1343 on: December 08, 2019, 06:49:30 pm »


There's a Scottish constituency that voted 61% Leave? Shocked Huh.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1344 on: December 08, 2019, 06:58:04 pm »


Common Fisheries Policy had a very significant impact there. Banff and Buchan is home to the Fishing ports of Fraserburgh and Peterhead. Even the SNP dont like that particular part of EU membership.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1345 on: December 08, 2019, 07:08:53 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2019, 07:12:20 pm by Oryxslayer »



Uhhhhh.... I guess Labour peaked? Could be over-herding.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1346 on: December 08, 2019, 07:16:27 pm »



Uhhhhh.... I guess Labour peaked? Could be over-herding.

Survation in their final 2015 and 2017 polls went against the convention (unusually large lead for CON in 2015 and unusually small lead for CON in 2017) and were correct.  Could lighting strike the third time ?  Of course this is not their final poll which I imagine would come out the day before the election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1347 on: December 08, 2019, 07:45:05 pm »

Note that this was done around the same time as the rest of the weekend poll glut, even if it has been published later. It's actually quite interesting that there has been no consistent pattern of movement across said poll glut this weekend. Put them all together and we have swings of 2.5 to 6.5, with the overwhelming majority (as previously noted) towards the middle of that.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1348 on: December 08, 2019, 08:30:52 pm »

If Labour antisemitic problem are as set out in this article below it needs to take severe whipping and be forced to complete a total house cleaning before allowed back in #10.


https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/12/the-secret-labour-files-of-shame.php
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #1349 on: December 08, 2019, 08:35:31 pm »



Uhhhhh.... I guess Labour peaked? Could be over-herding.

Lol!!

Opinium may have been right from the beginning and refused to be herded.

I think the British public is making a judgment on Corbyn this election. It may not be pleasant for Labour.
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