United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135723 times)
Roblox
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« Reply #1300 on: December 08, 2019, 11:30:35 AM »

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.

Though IIRC there was a split on what that "shock" meant - some Tories were genuinely predicting 400+ seats just minutes before the polls closed......

Really? Looks like there was some real kool-aid drinking on the Tory side. I only loosely followed the 2017 election, but I remember getting the impression that the polls were tightening but not enough to prevent conservative gains. Then the exit poll came out and early results came in, and I found them pretty thrilling lol, before my family took me to the mosque for two hours.

Speaking of 2017, how is Amber Rudd's seat looking? I know it was incredibly tight last time, and she's not standing in this election.

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1301 on: December 08, 2019, 11:32:44 AM »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...
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vileplume
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« Reply #1302 on: December 08, 2019, 12:00:44 PM »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1303 on: December 08, 2019, 12:07:10 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2019, 12:11:15 PM by Oryxslayer »

While it's not up on their twitter yet, LucidTalk's final Northern Ireland poll appears to be as follows:

DUP 28% (-8%)

SF 24% (-5.4%)

APNI 15% (+7.1%)

SDLP 12% (+0.3%)

UUP 10% (-0.3%)

Others/Undecideds: 10%

Changes since 2017.

I would say this points to Alliance getting Belfast East, the SDLP getting Foyle and Belfast South, the DUP maybe gaining North Down, and then there's enough room for potentially one other flip (N Down going APNI, UUP gaining S Antrim or F & S Tyrone, SDLP in S Down, SINN in Belfast N).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1304 on: December 08, 2019, 12:07:59 PM »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.

It was rather interesting last time - Labour steadily rose throughout the campaign in almost every poll until the final week, when some showed them continuing to rise while others showed them flatlining. Obviously the former turned out to be right, while the latter were not; I remember being hopeful that the reverse was true, but neither was I really shocked when the exit poll was released.

Will put up a chart showing poll numbers over the course of the campaign as we get closer to the end.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1305 on: December 08, 2019, 12:11:12 PM »

Labour haven't been steadily rising this time, have they?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1306 on: December 08, 2019, 12:14:11 PM »

Labour haven't been steadily rising this time, have they?

Not really; they've gone up over the campaign (high 20s to low-mid 30s), but so have the Tories (high 30s to low-mid 40s), leaving the Tory lead either unchanged or maybe a little larger.

Most of the Tory rise came early (in the first ten days or so), while most of the Labour increase came at the midpoint.

The Liberals have steadily slid, however.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1307 on: December 08, 2019, 12:26:45 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2019, 12:30:31 PM by CumbrianLeftie »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.

There are three main possibilities of the polling being wrong (and in Labour's favour) at this point:

1) the uncertainties of weighting the 2016 referendum more than three years on;
2) polls overestimating the elderly turnout and/or understating how many young people will vote;
3) not taking fully into account a notably high number of new registrations (again, mostly youth)

All are possible, none can be relied on. But given that there is at least a chance they will apply, as a Tory I would be nervous at any poll putting them much less than 10 points ahead......

(and numbers 2 and 3 of those factors, if true, would also play into Labour's superior ground game)
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1308 on: December 08, 2019, 12:29:17 PM »

The polls can be wrong. Relying on them being wrong and wrong in your favour is not a good strategy.

Conservative minority government is the best possible outcome now for Labour.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1309 on: December 08, 2019, 12:33:35 PM »

The polls can be wrong. Relying on them being wrong and wrong in your favour is not a good strategy.

Conservative minority government is the best possible outcome now for Labour.

Nobody is "relying" on anything. But all those points are serious possibilities, not blind faith.

Quite a few Labour people now genuinely think that the polls are understating their position at least a bit - that wasn't really the case at the start of the campaign.

Re your last point - barring a real miracle I agree the Tories will be the biggest party. The tantalising prospect is if they were to fall just short of a majority even *with* DUP support - what then?
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1310 on: December 08, 2019, 12:35:33 PM »

Then we end up with more mess, because there is more chance of me playing table tennis with Daisy Ridley than there is of the DUP backing a Corbyn-led government.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1311 on: December 08, 2019, 12:37:35 PM »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.

There are three main possibilities of the polling being wrong (and in Labour's favour) at this point:

1) the uncertainties of weighting the 2016 referendum more than three years on;
2) polls overestimating the elderly turnout and/or understating how many young people will vote;
3) not taking fully into account a notably high number of new registrations (again, mostly youth)

All are possible, none can be relied on. But given that there is at least a chance they will apply, as a Tory I would be nervous at any poll putting them much less than 10 points ahead......

(and numbers 2 and 3 of those factors, if true, would also play into Labour's superior ground game)

I would add a fourth, especially since one would hope polls have corrected for the above three.

4) The noticeably high number of undecided voters right now pick Labour.

Hop into your search bar and you will no doubt find any piece on how this group is larger then normal this late into the campaign. Now it isn't ginormous, and there's a lot of mixed views and divergent past votes in that pool, but it is still a lot. If they move on average to one sole camp, that will change the picture.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1312 on: December 08, 2019, 12:38:14 PM »

In the above scenario Tories *and* DUP wouldn't have a majority - so the question is if all the other non-Tory parties could cobble something together for at least as long as it takes to get another referendum on Brexit. Though the likelihood of another GE not long after that would have to be pretty high.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1313 on: December 08, 2019, 12:38:58 PM »

Indeed. The DUP are never going to support Withdrawal Agreement Mark 2, that is for sure.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1314 on: December 08, 2019, 12:41:15 PM »

Part of the question is, compared to 2017, how much is people being terrified of Boris Johnson a motivator for people to turn out when compared to the enthusiasm around Corbyn that was present in 2017 and almost totally absent this time.

One thing I've wondered surrounding all the stereotypes and "analysis" in the media surrounding the last few years in UK politics. Basically all the discussion revolves around the triangle ofolder, working class people in the provinces; younger graduates in big cities; and middle-aged middle class people in comfortable suburbs. Yet, a pretty solid majority of people under the age of 35 are not university educated, and presumably a lot of them don't live in London, Manchester or Bristol; and yet everyone behaves as if such a person could not possibly exist?
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BigSerg
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« Reply #1315 on: December 08, 2019, 12:43:59 PM »

the thread is infested with leftist fans pro remain.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1316 on: December 08, 2019, 12:44:26 PM »

Part of the question is, compared to 2017, how much is people being terrified of Boris Johnson a motivator for people to turn out when compared to the enthusiasm around Corbyn that was present in 2017 and almost totally absent this time.

Well up to a point. There are still big attendances for Labour meetings/rallies at this election, and in some cases even more people are turning out to campaign for the party than was the case two years ago.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1317 on: December 08, 2019, 12:44:32 PM »

Glad you're enjoying it.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1318 on: December 08, 2019, 12:47:55 PM »


I always find elections fascinating Smiley

One final question before I shut up for the time being - IF the polls mostly get it wrong in similar fashion to 2017, the time may have come to ask "are 'shy Labour' voters now a thing?".
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1319 on: December 08, 2019, 12:48:36 PM »

Part of the question is, compared to 2017, how much is people being terrified of Boris Johnson a motivator for people to turn out when compared to the enthusiasm around Corbyn that was present in 2017 and almost totally absent this time.

Well up to a point. There are still big attendances for Labour meetings/rallies at this election, and in some cases even more people are turning out to campaign for the party than was the case two years ago.

This doesn't mean that they are getting favourable reception at the doorstep. If people are even answering the door.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1320 on: December 08, 2019, 12:48:48 PM »

the thread is infested with leftist fans pro remain.

So what are you going to do about it? Scream la la la with your fingers in your ears?

I recognized the board is biased towards my left+Remain views. So I tempered my opinions and try to present the other side when possible, so that this doesn't become an echo-chamber and posters actually recognize whats going on outside. I try to play devils advocate when possible, you made this post in what appears to be an attempt to try and "TrIggER tHE LaBOurITeS."
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1321 on: December 08, 2019, 12:49:51 PM »


I always find elections fascinating Smiley

One final question before I shut up for the time being - IF the polls mostly get it wrong in similar fashion to 2017, the time may have come to ask "are 'shy Labour' voters now a thing?".

Quite possibly. I'd say that many Labour voters are deeply embarrassed by Corbyn Outriders MC.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1322 on: December 08, 2019, 02:20:26 PM »



Labour...down?
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Matty
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« Reply #1323 on: December 08, 2019, 02:36:36 PM »

Guys, labour surge ain’t happening

This margin is not budging
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1324 on: December 08, 2019, 03:05:23 PM »

Looking over the general weekend glut there does appear to be some (relatively mild) herding going on, with a couple of exceptions. A general consensus on a swing somewhere in the region of 3.0 to 4.5. Of course this useless electoral system means in terms of seats that's quite a wide region. And they may be wrong, and things may move in the week. Who knows.
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