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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85566 times)
Cassius
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« Reply #1300 on: December 07, 2019, 08:27:56 pm »

FWIW those constituency polls don't exactly suggest the Tories are running away with it as certain national surveys indicate. And btw to one poster above, 38-35-24 isn't *really* a "three way tossup" Smiley

If they are right, and the Tories are suffering these 15% swings in places like Wokingham and Guildford, then theyíre really going to be having to pile on the votes elsewhere in order to get something like 42% (which I think is unlikely). On the other hand, given the crap record of constituency polling generally (both here and abroad), Iíd still place more faith (just about) in the national polls.

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?

Miltonís not particularly well known, unlike Grieve who has been a prominent anti-Johnson and anti-Brexit Tory since way back when. The Liberal Democrats have also declined to stand aside for her (unlike for Grieve) and this constituency has historically been fairly strong territory for them - Milton actually took it off them in 2005 and theyíve been consistently in the top two in the seat since the days of the Alliance.

I donít actually believe the Liberal Democrats will win it (nor Esher & Walton); they were thirty points behind here in 2017 and, regardless of how good their ground game is, I donít see them overcoming that in an election where they end up on 11-12% nationally and the Tories are at around 42%.

I hope I don't need to give the writeup again on how the Lib-Dem strategy of: target a handful intensively rather than play for 632, a brand of "not Con" or "not Lab," and voter activation leads towards these large swings and them always underperforming their polled percentage but overperforming their polled seats. The potential Lib-Dem voter is more educated, more fiscally stable, and in tune with the political winds, so they are more likely to vote tactically for Blue/Red and hide the true Lib-Dem availability of the voters. They may not take the seats, but the Lib-Dems have overtaken huge majorities before and will again.

That may be true, but Guildford is not some piece of low-hanging fruit like the ones the Liberal Democrats nabbed from the Tories in 2017 (Bath, Twickenham et al). The Tories have an enormous majority there, and I simply donít believe there are enough of the kind of voters the Lib Dems are targeting (organic wine merchants who think that Richard Curtis invented comedy and define themselves as Ďliberal internationalistsí) in that seat (and others like Wokingham and South Cambridgeshire that have also been polled as showing suspiciously large pro-Lib Dem swings) for them to take it. Parties can throw huge amounts of resources into seats and get positive feedback on the ground... and still fall short by some margin (as happened to the Tories in certain Labour-Leave seats like Bolsover in 2017). The Lib Demís will probably get into the thirties in seats like Guildford, but still will fall some way short, especially as Labour is now creeping back up again, which will probably dissuade some Labour voters from voting tactically.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1301 on: December 07, 2019, 08:33:21 pm »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.

I've seen different estimates on Southport, some have it as ~53% Remain. Regardless though there seems to be an underlying pro-Labour trend in Southport probably due to increasing influence from Liverpool. Whilst I don't think they'll get it this time going forward it'll definitely be a top target.
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rc18
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« Reply #1302 on: December 07, 2019, 08:34:09 pm »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.

Southport most definitely voted Remain.  

Also there is no Brexit Party in this constituency to siphon away Labour Leavers who won't vote Tory which seems to be happening in other northern seats.

As for the other constituency polls they're pretty much in line with the Yougov MRP.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1303 on: December 07, 2019, 08:36:17 pm »

I got Southport as remain with my 2016 data.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1304 on: December 07, 2019, 08:39:37 pm »

Most constituency polls this election have been commissioned by clients with obvious agendas. I shall say no more.
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rc18
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« Reply #1305 on: December 07, 2019, 08:52:13 pm »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 08:56:11 pm by rc18 »



Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1306 on: December 07, 2019, 09:06:51 pm »



Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.

On this poll, entering it into Electoral Calculus the Tories only lose Stirling and the Scotland results are 40 SNP, 12 Tories, 5 LibDem and 1 Labour. There is the slight prospect of Tory gains in Scotland, if this poll slightly underrates them and they end up in the 30s they could gain a few seats which would be a big upset.
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Heat
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« Reply #1307 on: December 07, 2019, 09:07:17 pm »


Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.
Panelbase and YouGov have wildly divergent scores for Scottish Labour this time round, at least we know they're not herding!

It really is silly that we've only had four Scottish polls during this campaign, when we had thirteen in 2017.
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jfern
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« Reply #1308 on: December 08, 2019, 03:18:57 am »

So the Sun took a break from smearing Corbyn as an anti-semite to use actual anti-semites to smear the Labour party?

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cp
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« Reply #1309 on: December 08, 2019, 04:21:07 am »

Just putting this here for later reference: a rough timeline of election night declarations and their relative significance.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/election-night-timetable-polls-tory-labour-lib-dem?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1310 on: December 08, 2019, 08:09:18 am »

Labour won't win just one Scottish MP with 21% of the vote, you can take that to the bank now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1311 on: December 08, 2019, 08:12:41 am »

Just putting this here for later reference: a rough timeline of election night declarations and their relative significance.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/election-night-timetable-polls-tory-labour-lib-dem?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


In a similar vein, this popped up in my youtube recommendations last night. It's a 15-minute pseudo-podcast from  ITV interviewing one  of the bigwigs who has been working on the joint new exit poll since the 90s. So you can just pop this on in a background tab whenever to enjoy a trip down statistics lane.

It's interesting to hear that the poll is conducted when compared with other exit polls like those in the US. For example, they do not go out of their way to survey swing regions. Instead, like YouGov's MRP, they take their data from historically exit polled constituencies and apply it to demographics across the country. The exit poll is also analyzed by a small group of individuals and data scientists under NDA in a single room, with the results only revealed to the newscasters 20 minutes before showtime. Therefore, any exit poll 'leaks' we see are 90% likely to be fake. The most interesting thing though is how the exit poll is conducted at the counts. In contrast to the long mulit-question American exit poll, he describes it as walking into a second booth, casting a identical ballot, and dropping it in a second bin. Seems rather simple, and it sounds like such a non-invasive process removes sampling bias - at least it has historically.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1312 on: December 08, 2019, 08:18:57 am »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.

Southport most definitely voted Remain.  

Some local observers are not convinced, and also think Bootle went narrowly remain rather than leave (despite most estimates claiming the latter) Anyhow, the real point is that by any definition it isn't the sort of "remain heartland" where the Tories might underperform in this election.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1313 on: December 08, 2019, 09:03:16 am »

Fun economist diagram with sliders and weights that allow one to filters seats by dominant demographics.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1314 on: December 08, 2019, 09:23:49 am »

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1315 on: December 08, 2019, 10:05:21 am »

Labour won't win just one Scottish MP with 21% of the vote, you can take that to the bank now.

If Labour fails to hold Kirkcaldy after the SNP candidate got disavowed from the main party apparatus, then Scottish Labour deserves to die. That's the kind of local candidate issues that main models will not pick up.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1316 on: December 08, 2019, 11:21:29 am »

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.

Though IIRC there was a split on what that "shock" meant - some Tories were genuinely predicting 400+ seats just minutes before the polls closed......
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1317 on: December 08, 2019, 11:26:34 am »

FWIW, my initial contemporary reaction to the exit poll.

I had been personally predicting a majority of 50 but during a long think at Waterloo station, I saw a Conservative minority government as the worst realistic possibility for them.
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Soccer Moms Against Sanders
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« Reply #1318 on: December 08, 2019, 11:30:35 am »

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.

Though IIRC there was a split on what that "shock" meant - some Tories were genuinely predicting 400+ seats just minutes before the polls closed......

Really? Looks like there was some real kool-aid drinking on the Tory side. I only loosely followed the 2017 election, but I remember getting the impression that the polls were tightening but not enough to prevent conservative gains. Then the exit poll came out and early results came in, and I found them pretty thrilling lol, before my family took me to the mosque for two hours.

Speaking of 2017, how is Amber Rudd's seat looking? I know it was incredibly tight last time, and she's not standing in this election.

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1319 on: December 08, 2019, 11:32:44 am »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...
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vileplume
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« Reply #1320 on: December 08, 2019, 12:00:44 pm »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1321 on: December 08, 2019, 12:07:10 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2019, 12:11:15 pm by Oryxslayer »

While it's not up on their twitter yet, LucidTalk's final Northern Ireland poll appears to be as follows:

DUP 28% (-8%)

SF 24% (-5.4%)

APNI 15% (+7.1%)

SDLP 12% (+0.3%)

UUP 10% (-0.3%)

Others/Undecideds: 10%

Changes since 2017.

I would say this points to Alliance getting Belfast East, the SDLP getting Foyle and Belfast South, the DUP maybe gaining North Down, and then there's enough room for potentially one other flip (N Down going APNI, UUP gaining S Antrim or F & S Tyrone, SDLP in S Down, SINN in Belfast N).
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1322 on: December 08, 2019, 12:07:59 pm »

The polls were pretty widespread, but the average suggested a clear Tory majority. Kind of like now...

There had been polls showing only very small Tory leads  (1% and 2%) so the writing on the wall was there it's just most people (including me) chose to ignore it. The YouGov forecast also fairly accurately predicted what was coming though most people thought it was a joke. This time the Tory lead hasn't dipped that low in any poll (well at least yet) and has remained much more steady over the course of the campaign. Whilst I am ruling nothing due to there being a chance that all polling is massively out, the fundamentals do look more rosy for the Tories than at this point in 2017.

It was rather interesting last time - Labour steadily rose throughout the campaign in almost every poll until the final week, when some showed them continuing to rise while others showed them flatlining. Obviously the former turned out to be right, while the latter were not; I remember being hopeful that the reverse was true, but neither was I really shocked when the exit poll was released.

Will put up a chart showing poll numbers over the course of the campaign as we get closer to the end.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1323 on: December 08, 2019, 12:11:12 pm »

Labour haven't been steadily rising this time, have they?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1324 on: December 08, 2019, 12:14:11 pm »

Labour haven't been steadily rising this time, have they?

Not really; they've gone up over the campaign (high 20s to low-mid 30s), but so have the Tories (high 30s to low-mid 40s), leaving the Tory lead either unchanged or maybe a little larger.

Most of the Tory rise came early (in the first ten days or so), while most of the Labour increase came at the midpoint.

The Liberals have steadily slid, however.
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