United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 135730 times)
Cassius
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« Reply #1275 on: December 07, 2019, 07:10:19 PM »

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?

Milton’s not particularly well known, unlike Grieve who has been a prominent anti-Johnson and anti-Brexit Tory since way back when. The Liberal Democrats have also declined to stand aside for her (unlike for Grieve) and this constituency has historically been fairly strong territory for them - Milton actually took it off them in 2005 and they’ve been consistently in the top two in the seat since the days of the Alliance.

I don’t actually believe the Liberal Democrats will win it (nor Esher & Walton); they were thirty points behind here in 2017 and, regardless of how good their ground game is, I don’t see them overcoming that in an election where they end up on 11-12% nationally and the Tories are at around 42%.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1276 on: December 07, 2019, 07:27:34 PM »

FWIW those constituency polls don't exactly suggest the Tories are running away with it as certain national surveys indicate. And btw to one poster above, 38-35-24 isn't *really* a "three way tossup" Smiley
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1277 on: December 07, 2019, 07:30:13 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 07:34:34 PM by Oryxslayer »

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?

Milton’s not particularly well known, unlike Grieve who has been a prominent anti-Johnson and anti-Brexit Tory since way back when. The Liberal Democrats have also declined to stand aside for her (unlike for Grieve) and this constituency has historically been fairly strong territory for them - Milton actually took it off them in 2005 and they’ve been consistently in the top two in the seat since the days of the Alliance.

I don’t actually believe the Liberal Democrats will win it (nor Esher & Walton); they were thirty points behind here in 2017 and, regardless of how good their ground game is, I don’t see them overcoming that in an election where they end up on 11-12% nationally and the Tories are at around 42%.

I hope I don't need to give the writeup again on how the Lib-Dem strategy of: target a handful intensively rather than play for 632, a brand of "not Con" or "not Lab," and voter activation leads towards these large swings and them always underperforming their polled percentage but overperforming their polled seats. The potential Lib-Dem voter is more educated, more fiscally stable, and in tune with the political winds, so they are more likely to vote tactically for Blue/Red and hide the true Lib-Dem availability of the voters. They may not take the seats, but the Lib-Dems have overtaken huge majorities before and will again.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1278 on: December 07, 2019, 07:44:21 PM »

NRS social grade vs. social class identity

ABC1 

Conservative  41%
Labour  28%
Lib Dem  17%

C2DE

Conservative  44%
Labour  30%
Lib Dem  10%

Middle class ID

Conservative  42%
Labour  24%
Lib Dem  23%

Working class ID

Conservative  44%
Labour  32%
Lib Dem  8%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/25/how-well-do-abc1-and-c2de-correspond-our-own-class
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1279 on: December 07, 2019, 07:52:28 PM »

More recent NRS grade:

ABC1:
Conservative 40%
Labour 33%
Lib Dem 15%
SNP 5%
Green 4%
Brexit Party 3%

C2DE:
Conservative 44%
Labour 34%
Lib Dem 8%
Brexit Party 4%
Green 4%
SNP 4%

YouGov 2-3 Dec

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203316984164835328
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vileplume
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« Reply #1280 on: December 07, 2019, 08:19:58 PM »

FWIW those constituency polls don't exactly suggest the Tories are running away with it as certain national surveys indicate. And btw to one poster above, 38-35-24 isn't *really* a "three way tossup" Smiley

To be fair the vast majority of these DeltaPolls are in strongly Remain areas where you'd expect them to do significantly worse than average. The only one they've conducted in a strong Leave area (Berwick) had them doing very well.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1281 on: December 07, 2019, 08:22:06 PM »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1282 on: December 07, 2019, 08:27:56 PM »

FWIW those constituency polls don't exactly suggest the Tories are running away with it as certain national surveys indicate. And btw to one poster above, 38-35-24 isn't *really* a "three way tossup" Smiley

If they are right, and the Tories are suffering these 15% swings in places like Wokingham and Guildford, then they’re really going to be having to pile on the votes elsewhere in order to get something like 42% (which I think is unlikely). On the other hand, given the crap record of constituency polling generally (both here and abroad), I’d still place more faith (just about) in the national polls.

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?

Milton’s not particularly well known, unlike Grieve who has been a prominent anti-Johnson and anti-Brexit Tory since way back when. The Liberal Democrats have also declined to stand aside for her (unlike for Grieve) and this constituency has historically been fairly strong territory for them - Milton actually took it off them in 2005 and they’ve been consistently in the top two in the seat since the days of the Alliance.

I don’t actually believe the Liberal Democrats will win it (nor Esher & Walton); they were thirty points behind here in 2017 and, regardless of how good their ground game is, I don’t see them overcoming that in an election where they end up on 11-12% nationally and the Tories are at around 42%.

I hope I don't need to give the writeup again on how the Lib-Dem strategy of: target a handful intensively rather than play for 632, a brand of "not Con" or "not Lab," and voter activation leads towards these large swings and them always underperforming their polled percentage but overperforming their polled seats. The potential Lib-Dem voter is more educated, more fiscally stable, and in tune with the political winds, so they are more likely to vote tactically for Blue/Red and hide the true Lib-Dem availability of the voters. They may not take the seats, but the Lib-Dems have overtaken huge majorities before and will again.

That may be true, but Guildford is not some piece of low-hanging fruit like the ones the Liberal Democrats nabbed from the Tories in 2017 (Bath, Twickenham et al). The Tories have an enormous majority there, and I simply don’t believe there are enough of the kind of voters the Lib Dems are targeting (organic wine merchants who think that Richard Curtis invented comedy and define themselves as ‘liberal internationalists’) in that seat (and others like Wokingham and South Cambridgeshire that have also been polled as showing suspiciously large pro-Lib Dem swings) for them to take it. Parties can throw huge amounts of resources into seats and get positive feedback on the ground... and still fall short by some margin (as happened to the Tories in certain Labour-Leave seats like Bolsover in 2017). The Lib Dem’s will probably get into the thirties in seats like Guildford, but still will fall some way short, especially as Labour is now creeping back up again, which will probably dissuade some Labour voters from voting tactically.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1283 on: December 07, 2019, 08:33:21 PM »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.

I've seen different estimates on Southport, some have it as ~53% Remain. Regardless though there seems to be an underlying pro-Labour trend in Southport probably due to increasing influence from Liverpool. Whilst I don't think they'll get it this time going forward it'll definitely be a top target.
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rc18
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« Reply #1284 on: December 07, 2019, 08:34:09 PM »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.

Southport most definitely voted Remain.  

Also there is no Brexit Party in this constituency to siphon away Labour Leavers who won't vote Tory which seems to be happening in other northern seats.

As for the other constituency polls they're pretty much in line with the Yougov MRP.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1285 on: December 07, 2019, 08:36:17 PM »

I got Southport as remain with my 2016 data.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1286 on: December 07, 2019, 08:39:37 PM »

Most constituency polls this election have been commissioned by clients with obvious agendas. I shall say no more.
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rc18
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« Reply #1287 on: December 07, 2019, 08:52:13 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 08:56:11 PM by rc18 »



Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1288 on: December 07, 2019, 09:06:51 PM »



Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.

On this poll, entering it into Electoral Calculus the Tories only lose Stirling and the Scotland results are 40 SNP, 12 Tories, 5 LibDem and 1 Labour. There is the slight prospect of Tory gains in Scotland, if this poll slightly underrates them and they end up in the 30s they could gain a few seats which would be a big upset.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #1289 on: December 07, 2019, 09:07:17 PM »


Would suggest Conservatives hold almost all of their seats north of the border, SNP gains mostly from Labour.
Panelbase and YouGov have wildly divergent scores for Scottish Labour this time round, at least we know they're not herding!

It really is silly that we've only had four Scottish polls during this campaign, when we had thirteen in 2017.
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jfern
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« Reply #1290 on: December 08, 2019, 03:18:57 AM »

So the Sun took a break from smearing Corbyn as an anti-semite to use actual anti-semites to smear the Labour party?

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cp
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« Reply #1291 on: December 08, 2019, 04:21:07 AM »

Just putting this here for later reference: a rough timeline of election night declarations and their relative significance.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/election-night-timetable-polls-tory-labour-lib-dem?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1292 on: December 08, 2019, 08:09:18 AM »

Labour won't win just one Scottish MP with 21% of the vote, you can take that to the bank now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1293 on: December 08, 2019, 08:12:41 AM »

Just putting this here for later reference: a rough timeline of election night declarations and their relative significance.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/election-night-timetable-polls-tory-labour-lib-dem?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


In a similar vein, this popped up in my youtube recommendations last night. It's a 15-minute pseudo-podcast from  ITV interviewing one  of the bigwigs who has been working on the joint new exit poll since the 90s. So you can just pop this on in a background tab whenever to enjoy a trip down statistics lane.

It's interesting to hear that the poll is conducted when compared with other exit polls like those in the US. For example, they do not go out of their way to survey swing regions. Instead, like YouGov's MRP, they take their data from historically exit polled constituencies and apply it to demographics across the country. The exit poll is also analyzed by a small group of individuals and data scientists under NDA in a single room, with the results only revealed to the newscasters 20 minutes before showtime. Therefore, any exit poll 'leaks' we see are 90% likely to be fake. The most interesting thing though is how the exit poll is conducted at the counts. In contrast to the long mulit-question American exit poll, he describes it as walking into a second booth, casting a identical ballot, and dropping it in a second bin. Seems rather simple, and it sounds like such a non-invasive process removes sampling bias - at least it has historically.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1294 on: December 08, 2019, 08:18:57 AM »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.

Southport most definitely voted Remain.  

Some local observers are not convinced, and also think Bootle went narrowly remain rather than leave (despite most estimates claiming the latter) Anyhow, the real point is that by any definition it isn't the sort of "remain heartland" where the Tories might underperform in this election.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1295 on: December 08, 2019, 09:03:16 AM »

Fun economist diagram with sliders and weights that allow one to filters seats by dominant demographics.
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Blair
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« Reply #1296 on: December 08, 2019, 09:23:49 AM »

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1297 on: December 08, 2019, 10:05:21 AM »

Labour won't win just one Scottish MP with 21% of the vote, you can take that to the bank now.

If Labour fails to hold Kirkcaldy after the SNP candidate got disavowed from the main party apparatus, then Scottish Labour deserves to die. That's the kind of local candidate issues that main models will not pick up.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1298 on: December 08, 2019, 11:21:29 AM »

FWIW the 2017 exit poll leaked in the form of people saying 'bloody hell that's a shock' about 2 hours before.

Though IIRC there was a split on what that "shock" meant - some Tories were genuinely predicting 400+ seats just minutes before the polls closed......
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1299 on: December 08, 2019, 11:26:34 AM »

FWIW, my initial contemporary reaction to the exit poll.

I had been personally predicting a majority of 50 but during a long think at Waterloo station, I saw a Conservative minority government as the worst realistic possibility for them.
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