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  Talk Elections
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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85671 times)
King of Kensington
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« Reply #1250 on: December 06, 2019, 03:39:51 pm »

No matter how "rogue" the Tories go, they're still basically the bourgeois party in Britain.

Why upper class twits like Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg are considered "populists" astounds me. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #1251 on: December 06, 2019, 03:42:54 pm »



The Clock is ticking down on Labour at an alarming rate. Corbyn needs to win the Debate tonight, and decisively so it would seem. If he makes it about Trustworthiness he can, I am convinced.

Or for this whole Andrew Neil interview, or there lack of, thing to fester
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1252 on: December 06, 2019, 03:49:55 pm »



The Clock is ticking down on Labour at an alarming rate. Corbyn needs to win the Debate tonight, and decisively so it would seem. If he makes it about Trustworthiness he can, I am convinced.

Or for this whole Andrew Neil interview, or there lack of, thing to fester

At this point he probably needs both.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1253 on: December 06, 2019, 04:03:34 pm »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Liberal sometimes, but right-wing Liberal no doubt. Being a Lib-Con swing demographic in Canada means being on the center-right, after all (outside of certain odd community-based voting patterns, which of course do happen among Jews in Canada as well...)
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #1254 on: December 06, 2019, 04:24:11 pm »

How’s the debate going so far
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afleitch
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« Reply #1255 on: December 06, 2019, 04:30:49 pm »

Voted!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1256 on: December 06, 2019, 04:32:21 pm »
« Edited: December 06, 2019, 04:39:04 pm by Oryxslayer »


Seems to have both been okay for BoJo and Corbyn failed to land crushing points. We will see a larger BoJo lead in the YouGov snap poll than last time. Comparing it to last time is the only thing inferable from these snap polls.

Edit: Well, 1% gained from last time is 1%. Strange, I thought BoJo did better and Corbyn worse than last time.

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President Pericles
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« Reply #1257 on: December 06, 2019, 04:43:06 pm »

52-48?! This has to be some kind of sick joke.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1258 on: December 06, 2019, 05:49:08 pm »




Pretty much.
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Soccer Moms Against Sanders
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« Reply #1259 on: December 06, 2019, 05:57:04 pm »


Jonathan pie does an infinitely better job of holding the Tories to account than the mainstream UK media ever will. You really do hate to see it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1260 on: December 06, 2019, 06:39:58 pm »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Not sure about last election, but in 2006 Jewish community went 54% Liberal vs. 25% Conservative, but by 2011 totally flipped around.  Pretty sure they've gone Conservative since as Thornhill where largest used to be a Liberal riding but is now one of the safest Tory ones.  Mind you Harper was very pro-Israel so unlike in UK it was less about anti-Semitism of progressive parties (Liberals in Canada are more pro-Israel than British Tories if you look at UN voting record), but under Harper Canada was one of the few countries aside US that stood firmly with Israel.

In US its true Jewish community tends to vote heavily Democrat although GOP swung from 21% in 2008 to 30% in 2012.  With Trump the fact most Jews in the US live in large metropolitan areas and are more likely to have a college degree makes him a tough sell.  Historically I think they leaned left as left had a stronger record on minority rights than right did.
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« Reply #1261 on: December 06, 2019, 07:06:15 pm »

Any idea about seat projections?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1262 on: December 06, 2019, 10:29:20 pm »

YouGov MRP will be updated on Tuesday, December 10th at 22:00.
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Intell
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« Reply #1263 on: December 06, 2019, 10:38:39 pm »

But outside the U.S., Jews mostly vote on economic interests, which sometimes (Canada, Britain) means being right-wing, but in some places is more ambiguous (France).

The Jewish community in Canada votes mostly Liberal, though Orthodox Jews are more Conservative (i.e. Thornhill).

Not sure about last election, but in 2006 Jewish community went 54% Liberal vs. 25% Conservative, but by 2011 totally flipped around.  Pretty sure they've gone Conservative since as Thornhill where largest used to be a Liberal riding but is now one of the safest Tory ones.  Mind you Harper was very pro-Israel so unlike in UK it was less about anti-Semitism of progressive parties (Liberals in Canada are more pro-Israel than British Tories if you look at UN voting record), but under Harper Canada was one of the few countries aside US that stood firmly with Israel.

In US its true Jewish community tends to vote heavily Democrat although GOP swung from 21% in 2008 to 30% in 2012.  With Trump the fact most Jews in the US live in large metropolitan areas and are more likely to have a college degree makes him a tough sell.  Historically I think they leaned left as left had a stronger record on minority rights than right did.

In Canada aren't Orthodox Jews heavily tory, while non-orthodox jews are liberal leaning group, with secular jews being even more pro-liberal.

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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1264 on: December 07, 2019, 06:09:44 am »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1265 on: December 07, 2019, 07:20:34 am »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1266 on: December 07, 2019, 08:10:28 am »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27

SF are on average set to lose one seat next week - most likely Foyle, but there are two potential others. However, it's still a 27 majority because the speaker now is Labour, so there's an extra nonvoting opposition member.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1267 on: December 07, 2019, 08:42:52 am »


Electoral Calculus is currently predicting a Conservative majority of 20 with an overall 64% probability of a Conservative majority.

With SF no taking their seats is that not de facto majority of 27

SF are on average set to lose one seat next week - most likely Foyle, but there are two potential others. However, it's still a 27 majority because the speaker now is Labour, so there's an extra nonvoting opposition member.

Deputy speakers also don't vote and they're politically balanced (two Tories and one Labour when the Speaker is Labour; two Labour and one Tory if the Speaker is Tory) so in practice that has no impact.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1268 on: December 07, 2019, 11:00:32 am »

Away from the 52-48 poll headline, Corbyn did quite well on most of the other questions.

It likely won't make much difference, but won't actually hurt. Whereas if he had bombed it would have done.

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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1269 on: December 07, 2019, 11:13:26 am »

Torygraph: Tony Blair and Sir John Major are throwing a lifeline to Marxist Jeremy Corbyn
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1270 on: December 07, 2019, 11:17:10 am »

That's the Borisograph to you Wink
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1271 on: December 07, 2019, 11:24:16 am »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 11:36:23 am by Oryxslayer »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1272 on: December 07, 2019, 11:51:40 am »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

This poll, if I'm reading it correctly has changes on the last poll, but the last poll (2-3 Dec) was taken at the same time as this poll (2-5 Dec), which makes this poll, depending on when the bulk of the data was collected, as old as four other polls already released.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1273 on: December 07, 2019, 11:58:40 am »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

I got a bad feeling about this.  Nightmares of 2017
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1274 on: December 07, 2019, 12:23:37 pm »



If this is replicated in the rest of the weekend polls then Labour may still have some fight left in them. Compared to their last weekend poll, Labour still gains, but it is less stark - that was similarly a 10% Tory lead but both Labour and the Conservatives had higher percentages.

But why do I advise caution? Last time Comres had a 5% Other vote - a extreme outlier when polling just GB, with no NI polled (PC only gets 1%, SNP is polled and gets 3 to 4% but the tweet has character limits). So we should wait and see if this is replicated in the multitude of other weekend polls.

I got a bad feeling about this.  Nightmares of 2017

I mean if BoJo is actually at 9%, we should expect outliers of 6% and 12% to show up. If they didn't, one would suspect herding is occurring similar to 2017. So there are two different stories here, dependent on the rest of the pack.
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