United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[cp]

Getting a bit ahead of ourselves here aren't we?

And this may be an occasion when the polls "average lead" turns out to be not much use.

Indeed. There's no doubting the Tories are in the lead. That said, a case can be made that every major election in the UK (and the Scottish referendum) since 2005 had a crucial final week. Personally, I'm more bearish about a Labour victory than I was a few weeks ago (more bullish about a Lib Dem upset in E&W, tho), but if I was working for the Tory campaign and said we could put our feet up and coast right now I would expect to be fired.

[mileslunn]

What's the chance of a polling overcorrection from 2017?

Quite possible, certainly I think part of the reason for the miss in 2017 was overcorrection from 2015.  Survation and Yougov were accurate so doubt you are seeing one there, but I noticed ComRes and ICM had most Pro-Tory numbers in 2017, while are now showing the narrowest gap so for those giddy about the closing gap, those ones may be overcorrecting.  That being said I think turnout amongst younger voters which is anyone's guess will be key.  If they show up in big numbers it will be closer than polls suggest, if they have usual turhout, Tories will probably win quite comfortably.

I would also focus on seat and regional polls as this election a uniform swing will do terrible.  A uniform swing would show Labour holding a lot of their traditional Northern seats they probably wouldn't while in South show them well back in ones they are likely to hold or at least be competitive in.  A uniform swing probably wouldn't show them in danger of losing Sedgefield which they are while in the same time suggest Canterbury is lost even though I think Labour has a decent chance at holding it.

Hey, we think alike! Since we do, I'll throw on another data point that I agree with. Today I was reading something from Peter Kellner and he made a good point about the YouGov model. His basic point was that the YouGov model broadly shows whats going on in seats 'like this one' not 'exactly this one.' He brings up local cases like Barnet, since YouGov's MRP poll doesn't weight for Jews (too small of a demo, explained why they got Barnet wrong in 2017 as well), IDS and Raab's prominence in the Tory party, and Caroline Flint's pro-Brexit views in Don Valley. Essentially, if a seat has X demos and filed candidates, it should have X percentages, which is good for almost every situation. In some situations though, individual issues matter that are beyond a MRP polls capability to cover. This is why we should believe that Canterbury is more likely to stay Red than Bassetlaw, despite Canturbury having a smaller labour Margin in 2017.

Exactly and also local MPs.  Case and point is Bolsover.  On paper, this should be an easy Tory pickup, but with Dennis Skinner being a long serving and sort of a legend he might hold it.  Other interesting ones are Broxtowe and Hastings & Rye as both Tory incumbents aren't running at all in latter or as a different party and its quite likely in 2017 with a generic candidate or open seat Labour would have taken those two.  Since Tories have a bigger lead now, they will probably hold those, but if lead is reduced to under 5 they could flip.  On North Norfolk, many show Liberal Democrats still competitive, but that was a Norman Lamb constituency not LibDem, so I don't even expect it to be close and I suspect results will match other rural constituencies in Norfolk, thus Tories in mid 50s, while LDs and Labour languishing in 20s.  Even Westmorland & Lonsdale, I think Tories have a good chance of taking since Tim Farron is not leader while for Sheffield-Hallam I don't buy it will flip back to Liberal Democrats with Nick Clegg out.  It either stays Labour which is most likely or flips to the Tories which is possible despite numbers suggesting otherwise. 

Likewise MRP may miss tactical voting.  In North, Brexit party still at close to 10% in many Labour leave seats and if this swings over to Tories, you could see an even bigger Tory breakthrough here.  At same time, many wealthy posh central London constituencies like Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster, Wimbledon, and Putney have seen a large drop in Tory support, but Liberal Democrats and Labour splitting the vote equally so if that continues, Tories win those, but if voters coalesce behind either, then they will lose all of those.  Even Rushcliffe with Kenneth Clarke gone, will probably be closer than in past elections as it is becoming more a Nottinham suburb as opposed to rural although Labour would need to be ahead nationally to actually flip the seat so I suspect it will stay Tory, but with Clarke being a staunch remainer and more centrist than most, he could probably appeal to middle of the road voters that will be tough to hold.  So I wouldn't be surprised if whenever Labour returns to power, they win Rushcliffe, but again too far behind and not enough time this time around to win it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202344800562958337

-_-

[CumbrianLeftie]

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work??

[Pericles]

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work??

The total adds up to only 90% which is far too low.

[Quislings Anonymous]

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work??

M E B Y O N   K E R N O W


They will win St Austell and Newquay with 4,200%

[Blair]

I'm not sure what Dennis Skinner is actually like as a constituency MP in all fairness.

[CumbrianLeftie]

Everybody down one point, how on earth does that work??

The total adds up to only 90% which is far too low.

It also shows the SNP up 1, and "Others" up by 4(!)

Supposedly this is the product of showing people a "full choice" of options.

But in many seats "others" are not standing at all, and in lots of places where they do they will poll derisory votes. It genuinely makes little sense at all.....

[Father of Three]

How are y'all's takes on the East Devon race?

Seems rather odd that LDs fielded a candidate here...

[DaWN]

How are y'all's takes on the East Devon race?

Seems rather odd that LDs fielded a candidate here...

With Swire retiring, it'll be a comfortable Con hold. Much of the vote last time was against him rather than for her. I imagine she'll take second again though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Supposedly this is the product of showing people a "full choice" of options.

But in many seats "others" are not standing at all, and in many places where they do they will poll derisory votes. It genuinely makes little sense at all.....

Excellent example of why it's best to view the British polling industry with general contempt and to take its findings (any of them) with a degree of caution. Making a major methodological change with a week to go... Christ.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not sure what Dennis Skinner is actually like as a constituency MP in all fairness.

Old fashioned. Not ineffectual (he's done quite a bit of good for it), but not the the sort to open every fête, kiss every baby and to write angry letters about every pothole and dog turd. Though the big mystery there is whether the 2017 figures represent the actual starting point or not - the situation there last time (with the constituency being intensively and intensely targeted on the one hand and with the CLP turning out not to have canvassing data etc. on the other) was rather unusual.

[Ishan]

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

[rc18]

Which members of Change UK still on the sinking ship will survive, Soubry, Gapes, or Leslie or None of them?

The ship is lost with all hands.

[Intell]

Solid 26% of antisemtitic jews there. That number will be much lower this election probably.

58% Conservative
11% Labour
27% Libdems

[PSOL]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

[Intell]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

[Pericles]

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

[DL]

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

Up until very recently Jews tended to vote Labour and remember that the previous Labour leader Ed Miliband was Jewish.

What about the political preferences of the largest group of all - those with no religion?

[Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe!]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc either a large minority or an outright plurality of practicing Catholics in Great Britain today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish. They'd thus be doubly inclined against Brexit and shopkeeper-caste English nationalism.

[rc18]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

They're poorer and more working class. I don't know about this, but I would have to say a overwhelming majority will be of Irish descent.

iirc a plurality of practicing Catholics in England today are of Eastern European descent, although cultural Catholics (sorry, BRTD) are still mostly Irish.

Though of course most Poles etc in the UK do not have British citizenship and so cannot vote in a GE. Assuming the BES study is of GE voters it is mostly going to be Catholics of Irish descent.

As for no religion, that's related to age so the non-religious were more Labour in 2017.

http://www.brin.ac.uk/religious-affiliation-and-party-choice-at-the-2017-general-election/

[King of Kensington]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

Liverpool and Glasgow are probably the most "Irish" cities in Great Britain (by descent - London got most of the 20th century immigrants).

[King of Kensington]

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

[Intell]

Have Jews historically been a strongly Conservative demographic, or was there a big swing to the Tories due to Corbyn among them?

From what I understand they were Labour voters until the 1970s, then embraced Thatcher (who represented a very Jewish constituency), voted for Blair and Brown, and then swung away from Labour under Miliband.

I also think SDP and Lib Dem got a high vote amongst jews in 83/87/92, surpassing even the Labour Party in preference in 83 and 87.

[mileslunn]

What makes Catholics in the UK more likely to vote for Labour? I doubt all of them are Irish descendant, right?

A lot of it is geographical.  Northwest region of England, particularly Liverpool has the largest Catholic and also London is somewhat higher and those areas tend to go Labour.

When I would be interested is how Hindus are leaning?  BME lean heavily Labour, but I've heard Tories do reasonably well amongst Hindus and looking at Muslim numbers that would suggest Labour is ahead amongst Hindus, but a lot more competitive.