United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019

[cp]

The Tories' polling numbers weren't that great when Johnson called the election, however, and while there has been a tightening of the polls, the Tory lead is still around 2-3 points larger than at the same point in 2017.

Well, they were hovering in the mid to high 30s had a 10-15 point lead by most measures. It's not the heights they had during May's pre-2017 honeymoon, but pretty good overall.

The Tory lead is definitely a few points shy of this point in 2017, but I think that has more to do with stickier Lib Dem votes than a more successful Tory (or less successful Labour) campaign thus far.

[Pericles]

Tbh it does seem that the Tories have run a better campaign than May in 2017 (pretty easy to do) and Labour so far has run a bit of a worse campaign than in 2017. 'Get Brexit Done' is super dumb but also effective. The leadership ratings are weird, Johnson seems to be slightly more unpopular than May was even at the end of the campaign, but Corbyn hasn't so far had much of a surge in his leadership ratings and is still deeply unpopular. Boris's leads in preferred Prime Minister ratings so far are slightly higher than May's lead in those ratings at the end of the 2017 campaign but maybe slightly lower than May's ratings at this point in the campaign. Perhaps those who hate both Corbyn and Boris will go to Labour, but it doesn't look good for Labour (yet) here. Of course we'll have to wait until the end of the campaign to get a full picture, but so far the Tories do seem on track for victory.

[Roblox]

If labour suffers a massive defeat next week Corbyn should step down, but at the same time I wonder if any labour leader will be able to overcome this?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-british-media-labour-tories-bias-press-polls-a9229161.html

[Skill and Chance]

It seems like the WWII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

I never realized radioactive mutants were so pro-Conservative.

[Pericles]

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

Seems to be that way, though Labour has won some close elections. 2005 is also an interesting example, it wasn't close in seats and Blair got a 64-seat majority, but Labour only won the popular vote by 3 points (far less than the 7 point win that it took for the Tories to win their bare majority in 2015). FPP used to favor Labour, though in the last two elections it has favored the Tories instead.

[Old School Republican]

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

Except for Thatcher in 83 and 87 though

[cp]

It seems like the WWII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

If we're looking for decades-long cycles and patterns in Westminster elections, the standard account portrays Labour as the dominant party from 1945-1979 (when they won 6/10 elections and were in government for 18/34 years) and the Tories ever since (7/10 wins, 27/40 years). It's also worth noting that during these periods, when the 'non-dominant' party took office they did not substantially challenge the overarching consensus set by the other party.

If one were inclined to put faith in these observations, it would be quite easy to craft a narrative of a generational change in 2019 that would see the Tories on the losing end. I think that approach is far too simplistic, alas.

[Blair]

FWIW thanks to First Past the Post a 42-35 Tory Victory can still see some very weird results; the 2015 result shows how a Tory lead of 7 can really throw curveballs

[EastAnglianLefty]

Particularly since as the polls stand, the major change from 2017 to 2019 is in the pattern of Labour and LD support. How evenly or unevenly that LD support is distributed will make a lot of difference - indeed, that probably applies even if they've been squeezed down below 10% by polling day.

[ObserverIE]

It seems like the WWIII-present UK system is Labour wins a landslide once every generation, Conservative pluralities/narrow majorities otherwise.

I never realized radioactive mutants were so pro-Conservative.

I refer you to the result in Copeland.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201796560574537728

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201822002476134401

Morning Poll roundup. I'm interested in the London poll, because it seems to confirm that the city will go one way (ousting tories) whereas the country may go another. The pollster even says in their article that we have reached the point where the numbers don't really matter (the safe seats are confirmed as safe), it's more local factors like candidates and targeted issues in the swing seats.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201796560574537728

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201822002476134401

Morning Poll roundup. I'm interested in the London poll, because it seems to confirm that the city will go one way (ousting tories) whereas the country may go another. The pollster even says in their article that we have reached the point where the numbers don't really matter (the safe seats are confirmed as safe), it's more local factors like candidates and targeted issues in the swing seats.

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

[Walmart_shopper]

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

And in any case, they cannot possibly capture the full scope of Jezz-mentum which will be realized only in 10 days.

[afleitch]

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

[DaWN]

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

Which is why her winning easily will be the most pleasurable of the numerous wonderful disappointments you will endure on election night

[mileslunn]

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

[Oryxslayer]

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

I mean it makes sense that internal polling has them down. The SNP's revival is thanks to their present ability to convince 2014/15 but not 2017 voters to turn out. This demographic is concentrated most strongly in the urban strip, not the tory highlands and borders. This is unfortunately why Labour's Scottish prospects are rather dire right now. It's also why Swinson may be polling a tight race.

HOWEVER. Tactical voting among unionists is a thing and is the reason why SNP undershot every projection in 2017. It's something that is both hard to poll and occurs spontaneously. it may not be enough to save those with small majorities, but it will likely save Swinson with her 10% lead.  

[StateBoiler]

There are murmurs that 'internal polling' has Jo Swinson under water in her own seat.

Beautiful! I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle (even if I lived in a Tory/LD marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any party other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader) but I'd certainly vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Yellow Tories yet another well-deserved humiliation.

"I'm adverse to tactical voting as a matter of principle - even if I lived in a Tory/Liberal Democrat marginal there's no way that I'd vote for any other than Labour as long as they have someone as flawless as Corbyn as their leader - but I'd certain vote SNP in East Dunbartonshire to give the Liberal Democrats yet another well-deserved humiliation."

This is an entirely hypocritical contradictory statement. You destroy and make everything in between the dashes meaningless with everything stated after the 2nd dash, because after stating there is no way you would vote against a Corbyn-led Labour candidate regardless of the nature of the electoral district, you state circumstances that would have you voting against the Corbyn-led Labour candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1201911803632111617

New Poll. I'm not sure  if we have had a poll recently where Labour went down? If so, this is a first. However, this seems like a dead cat bounce poll more than anything.

[cp]

I don't think that does show them going different ways. That would be a 5pt swing towards the Tories nationwide and a 2.5pt swing in London.

And, in any case, they are by different polling firms...

And in any case, they cannot possibly capture the full scope of Jezz-mentum which will be realized only in 10 days.

That's a nice thought for a Lab supporter, but even I'm not willing to go that far

On the poll, something to keep in mind is that YouGov publishes two polls per week with slightly different methods for collection/weighting. The relevant poll to compare this one to is the one conducted Nov 26-28, which showed the Tories at 43 and Labour at 32.

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

Mostly historical reasons relating to the miner's strike and the local government. Liverpool was run by one of the most ardent left councils and was the centre of power for the Labour Party's leadership through most of the mid 20th century. Think of it as to Labour what the Cotswolds are to the Tories.

[PoliticalShelter]

Side question, but was wondering why in Liverpool Labour tends to have some of the highest margins in the country and Tories struggle to crack double digits.  I can see in some parts of Birmingham or London which are predominately non-white why this might happen or in university towns, but Liverpool is not especially young and it is fairly white or at least close to 90% white.  Any particular reason?

Because a higher proportion of its population are members of trade unions (the traditional reason for voting for the Labour Party) and unlike certain other areas with higher trade union membership (like Wales) it voted remain so the Conservatives can’t really use brexit as an issue to try to weaken Labour’s margin.

[DaWN]

Honestly I'd love to see a Labour minority that needs Lib Dem support just to see the reaction of anomalocaris and other dimmer Corbynites. I wonder if it will be "You know, on reflection, I've never minded the Lib Dems all that much..." or "CLASS TRAITOR CORBYN WORKING WITH THE LIB DEMS!" Either way it will be hilarious.

Regarding Swindon, she is inevitable herself, but if the Lib Dems perform badly then I doubt she'll be leader for long. Personally, I think 20 seats or more she's fine, 15-20 she'll be ok in the short term but probably won't serve the whole parliament, under 15 she's finished.

[DistingFlyer]

Here's a three-day average of polls, with my own MP estimates (based on nationwide swing figures):

Cons - 43.3% (-0.3%), 345 MPs (+27)
Lab - 33.0% (-8.0%), 219 MPs (-43)
Lib Dem - 13.5% (+5.9%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 3.5% (-0.1%), 50 MPs (+11)
GP - 2.5% (+0.9%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 40
Overall swing: 3.9% to Cons


Will update figures regularly, then make an actual prediction a day or two before the vote.