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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Fun with Patterns
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Author Topic: Fun with Patterns  (Read 665 times)
Anarcho-Statism
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« on: October 28, 2019, 10:47:11 pm »

Most of you have heard of talk of a cyclical presidents theory around this board. Basically...

Roosevelt = Reagan; popular realigner who wins in landslides
Truman = Bush I; vice president who rides on the realigner's coattails
Eisenhower = Clinton; super moderate from the opposition party
Kennedy/Johnson = Bush II; idealistic member of dominant party whose confidence in those ideals leads to disaster (overspending/overspeculation and commitment to war simultaneously)
Nixon/Ford = Obama; member of opposition party who runs on restoring order but really foreshadows a new movement in his party, limited success and country still cynical after presidency
Carter = Trump; political outsider whose platform doesn't look much like the initial realigner's comes out of nowhere amidst cynicism, very limited success

I don't think 2020 is a 1932 or a 1980, because 1) there's no awe-inspiring zeitgeist-capturing super candidate, and 2) diversity and social media has changed the dynamics of our politics. Still, if it was, what would the realignment look like and who do you think would be involved?
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2019, 09:36:23 am »

I hope this isn't true.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2020, 03:27:37 pm »

Most of you have heard of talk of a cyclical presidents theory around this board. Basically...

Roosevelt = Reagan; popular realigner who wins in landslides
Truman = Bush I; vice president who rides on the realigner's coattails
Eisenhower = Clinton; super moderate from the opposition party
Kennedy/Johnson = Bush II; idealistic member of dominant party whose confidence in those ideals leads to disaster (overspending/overspeculation and commitment to war simultaneously)
Nixon/Ford = Obama; member of opposition party who runs on restoring order but really foreshadows a new movement in his party, limited success and country still cynical after presidency
Carter = Trump; political outsider whose platform doesn't look much like the initial realigner's comes out of nowhere amidst cynicism, very limited success

I don't think 2020 is a 1932 or a 1980, because 1) there's no awe-inspiring zeitgeist-capturing super candidate, and 2) diversity and social media has changed the dynamics of our politics. Still, if it was, what would the realignment look like and who do you think would be involved?

Basically the Skowronek cycle.

Hoover ran a neo-gilded ideology to its logical conclusion: an economic collapse that began with a financial panic as a speculative boom went sour.  Carter was a good person, but his constituency disappeared... and America underwent cultural change that no longer favored Democrats (the rise of the Religious Right).

The individualist ideology that came in with Ronald Reagan was severely flawed, and Trump is its flaws with none of the virtues. He is cruel with no tendency to back down upon reflection or upon advice from others. He is monstrously corrupt. Above all, Ronald Reagan exploited patriotic sentiments to the fullest while Trump leaves plenty of questions about national loyalty.

If I am to compare Obama to anyone, then it is to Eisenhower for civic virtues that portend those of an era that sees Donald Trump as an ogre. Obama was as clean as anyone from scandal. Obama did get Nixon-like results without any Watergate-style corruption or dishonesty.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2020, 09:09:04 pm »

Didn't Skowronek conclude the "political time" theory by saying that it explains the past, but is dead now?  At least, that's what I remember from the poli sci classes I took in college- along with the theory that realigning elections don't exist anymore due to more gradual shifts with the knowledge of polling and mass+social media.
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Bernie Sanders would be a Menshevik in Europe
Jalawest2
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« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2020, 06:50:27 pm »

Sanders is clearly the Reagan/FDR equivalent.
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