Which state will go R first?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Title.

[Agonized-Statism]

California is never going to be what it was, but I think it has a more volatile future. There's more room for Republicans to grow. Maryland is pretty much a part of the Washington, D.C. MSA now and will vote accordingly.

[brucejoel99]

The one with a popular incumbent Republican governor would likely go Republican before the one with a popular incumbent Democratic governor.

[sg0508]

CA's growth is slowing. Long-term, who knows what it means but it could change some of the political landscape down the road.  MD's is more stable

[Orser67]

Voted for CA. They both have a mix of non-whites and college-educated whites, which is basically the perfect mix for the modern Democratic Party. CA has a larger non-white population proportionally, but MD is 30% African American compared to just 6.5% for CA. I think it's more likely that Asians and Hispanics start voting GOP than it is for African Americans, hence my belief that CA is more likely to flip. MD also has a higher educational attainment, and people with advanced degrees especially seem likely to continue leaning towards Democrats going forward.

Additionally, MD is presumably more reliant on the activities of the federal government (i.e. lots of voters commute to DC or work in federal positions), which also seems like something that will tie MD to the Democratic Party going forward.

[Sol]

California's terrible governance--utterly hideous inequality, housing unaffordability, compounding climate crises etc. gives the GOP more of an avenue into power even if it isn't especially likely.

[SingingAnalyst]

I voted MD, not that I expect either to do so in the near term: CA's population is volatile, all right, but most of the volatility seems to come from from likely GOP voters leaving the state, and likely Democratic voters replacing them (through immigration).

MD could conceivably go Republican in the unlikely event of a major (1972- or 1984-like) landslide.

[Non Swing Voter]

for either of these to go R there would probably have to be a massive realignment.  But I'd say Democrats have a much more stable floor in Maryland so CA would go first.  It's almost 1/3 AA and there are a lot of liberal policy wonk types in Montgomery County.  While Larry Hogan won re-election, the underfunded Democrat got about 44% of the vote.

Also, the white voters in the state are more liberal than people presume.  This was one of or the first states where gay marriage was legalized through popular vote. 

[Skill and Chance]

This is a tough one.  The long run trend is better for Republicans in Maryland, and they were able to elect Hogan and then reelect him by a landslide in a national Dem wave year.  On the other hand, those were state level elections, Hogan is super socially liberal, and the DC suburbs have the population to narrowly control the stat and they have no reason to back a national R any more.  It's also easy to envision a Detroit-style sh*t hits the fan economic scenario in CA if tech eventually crashes, which would greatly aid a national anti-Silicon Valley Republican campaign.  And SoCal has the numbers to outvote the Bay Area in such a crisis.  Add in the declining population and one could see a populist Republican message eventually resonating there.  I'm going with California.

[It’s so Joever]

California but only because of the DC suburbs. I think overall that Dems will peak in urban areas in 2020/2024 and the GOP will make inroads with inner-city minorities eventually. If it weren’t for DC, these trends would cause Maryland to shift right rapidly (Baltimore) but the DC suburbs will change this.

[Del Tachi]

Its near impossible to imagine either going Republican under the current alignment, but the future will depend on whether the GOP makes inroads with Latinos or Black voters.  I think its likelier than the GOP gains substantially with Black voters in the future, so MD appears more likely; however, California is probably a bit more amendable to the GOP at the present moment. 

[bagelman]

This is a tough one.  The long run trend is better for Republicans in Maryland, and they were able to elect Hogan and then reelect him by a landslide in a national Dem wave year.  On the other hand, those were state level elections, Hogan is super socially liberal, and the DC suburbs have the population to narrowly control the stat and they have no reason to back a national R any more.  It's also easy to envision a Detroit-style sh*t hits the fan economic scenario in CA if tech eventually crashes, which would greatly aid a national anti-Silicon Valley Republican campaign.  And SoCal has the numbers to outvote the Bay Area in such a crisis.  Add in the declining population and one could see a populist Republican message eventually resonating there.  I'm going with California.

Keep in mind though that much of the declining population is white emigration.

[SN2903]

CA. MD is hopeless.