LA GOV (JMC) JBE leads 48/46

[junior chįmp]

Remember when Atlas thought this race was Likely/Safe D? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

He gave the swamp people Medicaid and still got BTFO

When will Atlas realize that voters would rather live in complete squalor than vote against their identity

[Tender Branson]

Edwards will likely win 52-48.

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

Reeves wins 51-47-2.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Yikes, not great for JBE. Still a Toss-Up, but if he can't poll above 50% consistently in November, I'd definitely give the edge to Rispone.

Tbf Louisiana doesn't seem to have the same polling phenomena other solid R states have where Democrats only get the percentage they're polling and it seems it is effectively Republican plus undecided. In 2014 Landrieu got 3% more than her RCP average for the jungle primary and then the polls overestimated Cassidy's margin for the runoff by 8.3% (and underestimated Landrieu's vote share by 7.2%). I think the polls will be pretty accurate for this election then, rather than for races like KY where I expect the polls will underrate Bevin by quite a few points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election#Polling

that seems to be exactly what happened in the primary though, in fact JBE got 46.6% which is square in the middle from Trafalgar's 48% and JMC's 45% (Oct 5-8 poll). Not to mention that JMC had him at 47% (Oct 3-5).

There's also the chance that some of the 48% JMC has him at currently will switch once they go through a couple weeks more ad-attacks and a Trump rally.

[Annatar]

I looked at the 2 JMC polls and if this recent one is as accurate as the 1st one, Edwards is in trouble, in the September 19-21 poll Edwards was at 46% and went up to 48% when undecideds were further asked to choose. Edwards ended up with 46.6%, in between 46% and 48%. In this poll Edwards is at 48% and goes up to 50% when undecideds are asked to choose, if this poll has the same level of accuracy, than Edwards is on track to get 48-49% and narrowly lose. I trust the poll is accurate as JMC polls have a good track record.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Rispone is the narrow favorite in this race. This was JMC's poll just 5 days before the Jungle, at Edwards +8 vs Republicans when actual result was Republicans +4. Not that I expect a 12 point differential this time, but any poll where JBE isn't at or above a majority should be very worrisome for him given Republican-leaning undecideds and general poll bias thus far.

[Person Man]

If Edwards loses, there will basically not be a single pro-life Democratic Governor or Senator left.

[Calthrina950]

If Edwards loses, there will basically not be a single pro-life Democratic Governor or Senator left.

Are you forgetting Joe Manchin?

[MT Treasurer]

^Manchin is only pro-life when his vote doesn’t count.

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

LMAO

[Xing]

If Edwards loses, there will basically not be a single pro-life Democratic Governor or Senator left.

DeMoCrAtS lOsE bEcAuSe ThEy ArEnT pRoLiFe

[Tender Branson]

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

LMAO

He will win in a landslide.

Mark my words.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

LMAO

He will win in a landslide.

Mark my words.

They have been marked.

[IceSpear]

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

LMAO

He will win in a landslide.

Mark my words.

Sen. Bredesen agrees.

Vox Populi is a RNC-affiliated pollster btw.

Also, the last 3 polls show an average lead for Blackburn of only 3 points, which is well within the MoE.

Everything is still possible in this race and Blackburn can't shake off the Phil.

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1189290931809337345

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1189290931809337345

This tells me that most of the undecideds are conservative college educated whites (CD-01) and African Americans (CD-02). 

[windjammer]

I remember very well when people believed it was going to be safe dem.
And I remember very well people believed it was likely rep top!

[2016]

If Edwards loses, there will basically not be a single pro-life Democratic Governor or Senator left.

Are you forgetting Joe Manchin?

Manchin is technically not a Southerner or would you consider West Virginia a Southern State cuz I do not.

[Frenchrepublican]

Edwards will likely win 52-48.

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

Reeves wins 51-47-2.

Of course, how are you doing in your alternative world ?

[2016]

Edwards will likely win 52-48.

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

Reeves wins 51-47-2.

Of course, how are you doing in your alternative world ?

Republicans have done a really nice Job in Kentucky to nationalize the Contest and if they continue to do that over the next 5 Days or so this will be very tight and Bevin could still pull it out.

[Del Tachi]

It will be relatively close but probably no cigar for the GOP

[Pericles]

Edwards will likely win 52-48.

Beshear wins 54-44-2.

Reeves wins 51-47-2.

Of course, how are you doing in your alternative world ?

Republicans have done a really nice Job in Kentucky to nationalize the Contest and if they continue to do that over the next 5 Days or so this will be very tight and Bevin could still pull it out.

Probably won't be super tight actually, more like a comfortable win by Bevin which is still a big underperformance by him.

[Calthrina950]

If Edwards loses, there will basically not be a single pro-life Democratic Governor or Senator left.

Are you forgetting Joe Manchin?

Manchin is technically not a Southerner or would you consider West Virginia a Southern State cuz I do not.

I do. I define the South as being the former Confederate States, the four Border States, Oklahoma, and Washington D.C. (though many consider Missouri to be a Midwestern state, Oklahoma a Western state, and Maryland and Delaware to be Northeastern states, which I can understand).

[Person Man]

If Edwards loses, there will basically not be a single pro-life Democratic Governor or Senator left.

Are you forgetting Joe Manchin?

Manchin is technically not a Southerner or would you consider West Virginia a Southern State cuz I do not.

I do. I define the South as being the former Confederate States, the four Border States, Oklahoma, and Washington D.C. (though many consider Missouri to be a Midwestern state, Oklahoma a Western state, and Maryland and Delaware to be Northeastern states, which I can understand).

I don't really think Manchin takes a concrete position on that issue which is probably as socially conservative as you can get. Just like Murkowski and Collins don't really take a concrete position on that issue, either. That's about as far to the center as you can go from party orthodoxy. The only three A-list (Cabinet, POTUS, Senate, Guv) politicians that cross party lines on that issue would be Phil Scott, Larry Hogan, and Brian Baker if John Bel Edwards loses.

I consider the "south" to be the slave states in 1860 minus Maryland, Delaware, and DC. That includes West Virginia. I would also include the first hour of the drive  Northbound out of Kentucky on I-65 to be part of it, too.