What numbers would JBE be polling if he were running in a less diverse Red State

[ElectionsGuy]

I disagree with the notion that JBE would be DOA in whiter states like Arkansas and Tennessee (he could definitely win in Missouri). What he would lose in lack of blacks he would gain in less stubborn white Republican voting. It's easy to say Arkansas and Tennessee would be Safe R no matter what because no Democrats have had success there since at least 2008, but all southern states still have a Democratic tradition that can be reignited in the case of an unpopular Republican governor or a culturally fitted Democratic candidate (at the state level, that is). Even in Mississippi, if Bevin had been governor of Mississippi and had all the same record, controversies, and popularity I think Hood would've defeated him. The only states I would see JBE losing kinda badly are Alabama and Oklahoma.

There are multiple things that have to go right for these types of Democrats to have success (in various different red states), and depending on how this election goes we may learn 2015 was the perfect environment for JBE to get elected (unpopular Jindal and diaper Dave as his opponent) that cannot be repeated in a generic circumstance. It's just that these situations for this right type of Democrat to win are rare, few and far between.