What was McCain's chance of winning PA is 2008 just before election day?

[Plankton5165]

It was just "lean" Obama, not safe Obama.

I thought "lean" traditionally starts when someone has at least a 65% chance of winning, and "safe" traditionally starts when someone has at least an 85% chance of winning.

[OSR stands with Israel]

There was no Likely rating back in those days just lean or Safe so that Lean PA rating was really a Likely PA but even then by election day that rating would have been ridiculous and it should have been treated as Safe D. Ironically only one news organization/polling organization thought PA was Safe R and it was Rasmussen

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

D.C. Political Report: Democrat[37]
Cook Political Report: Leaning Democrat[38]
Takeaway: Leaning Obama[39]
Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat[40]
The Washington Post: Leaning Obama[41]
Politico: Leaning Obama[42]
Real Clear Politics: Leaning Obama[43]
FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning Obama[41]
CQ Politics: Leaning Democrat[44]
The New York Times: Leaning Democrat[45]
CNN: Leaning Democrat[46]
NPR: Leaning Obama[41]
MSNBC: Leaning Obama[41]
Fox News: Democrat[47]
Associated Press: Democrat[48]
Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[49]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania

[Redban]

I remember he was campaigning there late in the election cycle. At the time, the newspaper in my city called it "puerile" to think he had a chance there.

[Chips]

5%-ish or something.

[Wormless Gourd]

Zilch before election day, even within McCain's camp.
It was considered a reach target to get to 270 in early '08, and considered their best bet to do so with his bad polling in several Bush-won states.