Emerson 10/18-21: Biden 27, Sanders 25, Warren 21, Buttigieg 6, Harris 5

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1186674188536303616

[Zaybay]

Change since the last poll (September 21st-23rd):

Biden: 27% (+2%)
Sanders: 25% (+3%)
Warren: 21% (-2%)
Buttigieg: 6% (No Change)
Harris: 5% (+1%)
Yang: 4% (-4%)


Caution: Numbers are from Emerson

[Cinemark]

Change since the last poll (September 21st-23rd):

Biden: 27% (+2%)
Sanders: 25% (+3%)
Warren: 21% (-2%)
Buttigieg: 6% (No Change)
Harris: 5% (+1%)
Yang: 4% (-4%)


Caution: Numbers are from Emerson

I will always point out that third party online surveys =/= cell phones.

I know polling is expensive, but a combination of 60% to 70% Robo landline calls + 30% to 40% third party surveys is not a great combination for accuracy.

[Lambsbread]

surejan.gif

[Mr. Morden]

GOP #s:
Trump 91%
Weld 5%
Sanford 3%
Walsh 2%

[redjohn]

Very good numbers for Sanders, not bad for Warren either. I'm not sure whether Warren or Sanders has more support nationally, but I expect they're about even with Biden still leading. Sanders needs to concentrate on Iowa; if he wins IA, I think he'll definitely win NH as he's already strong there. All paths to the nomination for Bernie go through winning in Iowa.

[Donerail]

IVR:
biden 34
warren 22
bernie 14
buttigieg 9
harris 4
yang 4
booker 4
gabbard 3
beto 0

Mechanical Turk:
bernie 42
warren 20
biden 15
yang 5
harris 5
beto 4
gabbard 3
buttigieg 3
booker 1

[Beet]

So after being attacked 16 times in the debate, losing the 2 biggest members of the Squad, and being hounded over M4All funding nonstop, Warren only drops 2 points? #TeflonLiz

[redjohn]

Also, this just confirms that many candidates need to call it quits. Not just candidates who couldn't make the debates, but people who are in the debates too. It's getting extremely embarrassing for Bennet, Harris, Booker, and Klobuchar; all US Senators who are making a joke of their political careers.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Another terrible poll for Bernard. He must drop out.

[Eraserhead]

A little bit of the poll was done post-AOC endorsement/Bernie Is Back Rally unlike the other recent nationals.

Very nice.

[Shadows]

Castro & Klobuchar won't make it to the next debate & the way Beto is doing he seems to have fallen below Beto.

[Mr. Morden]

the way Beto is doing he seems to have fallen below Beto.

I hate it when I fall below myself.

[eric82oslo]

Of the 430 respondents, exactly half said they would definitely vote for their candidate, while another 50% could still change their minds.

This is the ranking of the voters who are already 100% committed to their candidate:

1. Biden: 78 - translates into 36.8%
2. Sanders: 64 - 30.2%
3. Warren: 28 - 13.2%
4. Yang: 16 - 7.5%
5. Gabbard: 9 - 4.2%
6. Harris: 5 - 2.4%
7. Buttigieg: 4 - 1.9%
8. O'Rourke: 2 - 0.9%
9. Klobuchar, Steyer, Bennet, Ryan, Sestak: 1 each - 0.5%
14. Everyone else without a single vote

https://twitter.com/Steven_Tian_/status/1186842673287585792

The four candidates with the highest percentage of definite voters are Yang at 86%, Gabbard at 75%, Biden at 66% and Sanders at 60%.

The four candidates with the least amount of definite voters are Booker at 0% (none of his 11 voters were committed!), Buttigieg at 15%, followed by Harris and Klobuchar both at 25%. Even Warren's definitely vote for ratio was only 30%.