Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged?

[Person Man]

The way any change would happen is if a large amount of non-voters became voters. That's probably the only way that Trump won and perhaps how Obama won.

[Person Man]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

[Person Man]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).

[Person Man]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).

If they lose to Trump whoever is the loser put that wing of the party at a disadvantage in 2024. Anyway I think if Dems lose in 2020,the 46th President will be Gretchen Whitmer

Does Gretchen want it? Is she just a good administrator or is she a capable leader as well?

[Person Man]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide. 


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).

If they lose to Trump whoever is the loser put that wing of the party at a disadvantage in 2024. Anyway I think if Dems lose in 2020,the 46th President will be Gretchen Whitmer

Does Gretchen want it? Is she just a good administrator or is she a capable leader as well?

No idea, just saying it as she would then be a two term governor of a battleground state and she seems pretty popular among all wins of the party

President Vilsack says hello?

[Person Man]

Obviously, unless you expect the GOP to be a minority party for 20-30 years some time during this century.

Both parties were last century.

[Person Man]

I have no idea, and I don't think anybody can reasonably say otherwise. Obviously, the coalitions will shift as demographics change, and parties adjust to hit 50/50, but as things stand, there is no indication white millenials will shift to the GOP over the next few cycles. When things eventually shift, it could be them, or Latinos, or blacks, or younger generations still, which shift towards the GOP. In the world of the demographic future, to remain competitive, the GOP must change its platform so much we can't realistically predict who its supporter base will be, other than that it will be very unlike the current GOP coalition. Of course, we could have DEM blowouts until the 2030s until the GOP is forced to shift their platform, in which case millennials will be in their 40s and voting just as DEM as today.

If I were to wildly speculate, I would predict some sort of Josh Hawley-Marin LePen esque GOP with Doug Fordian appeal to some minority groups, and white millennials split along geographic and socioeconomic lines with a En Marchey Democratic party, but that doesn't mean I think it will happen.

Parties have done that throughout history though with most recent being the Democrats in 1992 though it did take 3 consecutive landslide defeats for that to happen

Exactly. And I expect the GOP to go through a similar process, my point being that it's very difficult to envision what the end product is.

I think 2 defeats could be enough though, 1988 the Dems would have won if the economic and foreign affairs wasnt so titled against them and if Gary Hart never had the scandal.  Fundamentals along with the "New Democrat" candidate going down in flamed due to scandal which lead to Dukakis being the nominee is what gave the GOP a third straight landslide.  


Heck in today's age maybe even 1 might be enough, Republicans have governors who are kinda of different like Hogan and DeSantis. DeSantis, for example, has been pretty positive for a Republican on environmental issues and Hogan is more liberal on social issues. So say in 2020 you get a President Warren who goes full populist left and then in 2024 Pence is defeated for the nomination by Hogan, DeSantis then you can get a pretty new GOP.

Political cycles change a lot faster now days then back in the day as whoever leads the tickets basically totally runs the party for the election cylce, or if they win 4 years or 8 years. Back in the day Congressional Leaders, State Leaders had far far more power so making fundamental changes was more difficult.

What would be the inverse of this scenario... I'm taking the original conjecture to a new point- what if the Democrats moderate and a lot liberal voters stop showing up?

If Republicans don’t adapt they will lose anyway . The only question is will they be forced to adapt by Election defeats or will they proactively adapt

What I am talking is if Democrats to LOSE TO TRUMP is if they will see that and "adapt" or if they will have to lose another to "adapt" or if they just double down and eventually win like they did with Bush even when they couldn't beat Bush (much in the way the GOP dealt with Obama).

If they lose to Trump whoever is the loser put that wing of the party at a disadvantage in 2024. Anyway I think if Dems lose in 2020,the 46th President will be Gretchen Whitmer

Does Gretchen want it? Is she just a good administrator or is she a capable leader as well?

No idea, just saying it as she would then be a two term governor of a battleground state and she seems pretty popular among all wins of the party

President Vilsack says hello?

Michigan is much bigger than Iowa and there is no establishment candidate equal to Hillary in 2024.  The 2024 field will mainly come from winners from 2018 and Dems didnt have that many in the Senate and from the Gubernatorial winners Whitmer, Newsom and Polis seem to be the only ones who can go National.

And of course President Rubio says hello.

I really think that if they are still struggling downballot after 2022, that the Democratic Party will either go in a slightly different and perhaps even more aggressive direction to attract "missing voters" or will try to do a "Bill Clinton 2.0" to win back some Trump Democrats. Maybe something like what Trump offers but more emphasis on unions, social security, and healthcare while not pandering to the Religious Right and not offending minorities. I could see someone like Gabbard become the next D president if Trump wins in 2020 and the Democrats still struggle at the state and local level, even if they hold Congress.

I could see them doubling down and look to keep on Obama's path forward even if they lose this year if they totally own 2022.

[Person Man]

Obviously, unless you expect the GOP to be a minority party for 20-30 years some time during this century.

Both parties were last century.

Those were both significant events in which the Dems and GOP lost large chunks of their base. Its not comparable to the gradual decline of Republican favored demographics we see now.

1932 and 1980 were actually a long time coming.

[Person Man]

I don't expect this will happen among those who are already voting (D-to-R shifts as people age are completely overblown at best and outright nonsense at worst - especially in today's climate), but as more currently non-voting white Millennials begin to participate, it's certainly a possibility given the trajectory of our political system. This is also likely what happened with previous generations with regard to the relatively tiny amount of evidence there is to suggest people "become more conservative with age", mind you.

There's nothing cool or trendy about being a conservative in today's youth climate and so only the sands of time convincing select groups to participate based on self-interest (racially, at least at this point) will have any beneficial impact for the GOP among Millennials - and if the current era proves to be an aberration, say goodbye to even that hope for the GOP.

Nevertheless, it wouldn't surprise me if these developments led to a return to the old ways in how Democrats actually benefited from low turnout in midterms and the like in a few decades, as those who didn't care to vote when they were in their 20s and 30s are never going to be the epitome of reliable voters; will be fun to suck on my tobacco pipe in old age and hear the GOP b[inks]h about voter suppression and low turnout!

That's probably what the GOP will do as their vote becomes more and more boxed into less developed areas. It would be pretty easier to suppress their vote at that point, especially when there is a budget shortfall during a recession or early recovery. There could talks of consolidating precincts in rural areas to save money and avoid redundancies the way businesses had to fire their extra workers.

[Person Man]

If we use 1996 and 2008 as proof of "Republican aging," then we would have to say that 1984 is proof that the youngest Boomers and first-wave Gen Xers became more Democratic as they entered middle age.

You have to normalise for the national shift as well, I pointed out the trends relative to the national vote shift as well.

According to the exit polls, Reagan carried 18-29 year old voters by 18% in 1984, he won nationally by 18.2% so they basically voted like the country. Reagan's best age group in 1984 were voters over the age of 65 who voted for him by 28%, for some reason people have this weird belief Reagan did better with younger voters than older voters, he didn't.

Voters who were 18-29 in 1984 were 30-41 in 1996 and 30-44 year old voters in 1996 voted for Clinton by 7% whilst he won nationally by 8.5%. So 18-29 year old voters did not really trend democratic from 1984-1996 like you are claiming, they basically stayed constant relative to the national shift.

So there really wasn't much of a shift at all. At this point I am more convinced that voters change their mind not because they are older but because either people start paying attention when they didn't before or that they are a slave to the conditions they entered adulthood in.

[Person Man]

I think what changes voters’ habits over time are party realignments, it’s parties shifting their positions over time that causes changes in voting patterns, if party positions stayed constant I believe voters would vote the same way their whole life.

Which raises the questions of how and why coalitions and issues changes.