Will white Millennials become more Republican when they're middle aged?

[Annatar]

I would link to this post I did some time ago which argues that there already has been a shift, and it may continue, to put it simply if you look at the exit polls, whites aged 30-44 which represent the late Gen X and 1st half of Millennials up to 1986 voted R+17 in 2016. That is a significant shift compared to how those voters were voting relative to the nation a decade ago.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=275462.msg5873981#msg5873981

[Annatar]

Probably, this is the data we have going back to the 1990's from the exit polls.

Voters aged 18-29 in 1996 born in 1967-1978 so the core of the Gen X generation voted for Clinton by 19%, around 11% more democratic than the country. In 2016 the same voters aged 38-50 voted Republican by around 2%, shifting 21% more Republican overall and trending 15% more Republican over time.

We even have data on how early millennial's have changed as they have aged now and are now in their 30's. In 2008 voters aged 25-29, born in 1979-1983 so the early part of the millennial generation voted for the democratic candidate by 35%, 28% more democratic than the nation.

8 years later these voters were aged 33-37 and according to the 2016 exit polls voters aged 30-39 voted for the democratic candidate by 12%, voters aged 33-37 likely voted in line with these figures and so they shifted 23% towards the Republican party and 18% towards the GOP relative to the popular vote.

Since white millennial's are a significant part of all millennial's, it's pretty clear that older white millennial's have already shifted lot more Republican than they were when they started voting in 2008 in big numbers.

As for younger millennial's, its a more interesting question, voters aged 18-24 did vote for Obama by 34% in 2008, these voters were aged 26-32 in the 2016, 25-29 year old voters voted for Clinton by 16%, so that's a 18% shift towards the GOP and a 13% trend overall. Voters aged 30-32 likely voted for Clinton by around 13%, I'm assuming they were a bit more democratic than voters in their late 30's so they shifted 21% more Republican and trended 16% more Republican.

[Annatar]

If we use 1996 and 2008 as proof of "Republican aging," then we would have to say that 1984 is proof that the youngest Boomers and first-wave Gen Xers became more Democratic as they entered middle age.

You have to normalise for the national shift as well, I pointed out the trends relative to the national vote shift as well.

According to the exit polls, Reagan carried 18-29 year old voters by 18% in 1984, he won nationally by 18.2% so they basically voted like the country. Reagan's best age group in 1984 were voters over the age of 65 who voted for him by 28%, for some reason people have this weird belief Reagan did better with younger voters than older voters, he didn't.

Voters who were 18-29 in 1984 were 30-41 in 1996 and 30-44 year old voters in 1996 voted for Clinton by 7% whilst he won nationally by 8.5%. So 18-29 year old voters did not really trend democratic from 1984-1996 like you are claiming, they basically stayed constant relative to the national shift.

[Annatar]

I think what changes voters’ habits over time are party realignments, it’s parties shifting their positions over time that causes changes in voting patterns, if party positions stayed constant I believe voters would vote the same way their whole life.

[Annatar]

I think what changes voters’ habits over time are party realignments, it’s parties shifting their positions over time that causes changes in voting patterns, if party positions stayed constant I believe voters would vote the same way their whole life.

Which raises the questions of how and why coalitions and issues changes.

There’s some interplay between party elites and their voters that cause issues to change over time, it’s the negotiation between party elites and voters via the process of primaries for example that causes coalitions to change over time.