Reeves (R) leads Hood (D) 46/43 (Mason Dixon)
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  Reeves (R) leads Hood (D) 46/43 (Mason Dixon) 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: Reeves (R) leads Hood (D) 46/43 (Mason Dixon)  (Read 2728 times)
Frenchrepublican
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« on: October 23, 2019, 07:06:52 AM »
« edited: October 23, 2019, 07:22:43 AM by Frenchrepublican »
https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2019/10/23/poll-reeves-and-hood-close-mississippi-governor-race-trump-popular-voters-oppose-impeachment/2450262001/

Cross-tabs : https://fr.scribd.com/document/431672933/Mason-Dixon-MS1019Poll
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Zaybay
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2019, 07:08:10 AM »
Hood is screwed, example #134.
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Politician
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2019, 07:09:59 AM »
Atlas told me Hood has a better chance than Beshear, though.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2019, 08:48:13 AM »
I found the regional breakdown interesting:

Northern Mississippi: 56-34 Reeves
The Delta: 68-26 Hood
Eastern Mississippi: 46-45 Hood
Jackson Metro: 47-41 Hood
Southern Mississippi: 53-34 Reeves
Gulf Coast: 52-35 Reeves
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2019, 08:49:50 AM »
Likely R.

My prediction: Reevers wins 54% to 44%.
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RI
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2019, 09:28:07 AM »
New Poll: Mississippi Governor by Mason-Dixon on 2019-10-19

Summary: D: 43%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2019, 10:54:46 AM »
Quote from: Politician on October 23, 2019, 07:09:59 AM
Atlas told me Hood has a better chance than Beshear, though.

He does, because MS polls don't underestimate Republicans the way that KY polls generally do. That's not saying much, though, since Hood is pretty much done for as well.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2019, 10:59:39 AM »
Quote from: Politician on October 23, 2019, 07:09:59 AM
Atlas told me Hood has a better chance than Beshear, though.

He does
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Canis
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2019, 11:17:33 AM »
Explain
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2019, 11:34:35 AM »

Hood will get a higher % than Beshear (and I suspect it will actually be a lot higher).  Hood has a very high floor of support (around 45 percent) and can win simply by cranking up Black turnout and improving in suburbs/college towns.  Beshear has to win in 70-30 Trump counties. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2019, 11:42:45 AM »
Not bad for Hood ...
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2019, 11:45:13 AM »
Also, Reeves only +3 is a lot better than some other numbers we’ve seen from MS-GOV.  Looking at cross tabs it looks like Blacks are more likely than Whites to be “undecided” at this stage, so that’s another good indicator for Hood. 

Honestly I expected something like Reeves +8, so I’m happy with this result for the time being. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2019, 11:46:27 AM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on October 23, 2019, 11:45:13 AM
Also, Reeves only +3 is a lot better than some other numbers we’ve seen from MS-GOV.  Looking at cross tabs it looks like Blacks are more likely than Whites to be “undecided” at this stage, so that’s another good indicator for Hood. 

Honestly I expected something like Reeves +8, so I’m happy with this result for the time being. 

52-46 or 51-47 would be my guess.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2019, 12:06:26 PM »


LOL. Hood seems deseperate, they don't even have the guts to publish cross tabs
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2019, 12:13:12 PM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on October 23, 2019, 11:45:13 AM
Also, Reeves only +3 is a lot better than some other numbers we’ve seen from MS-GOV.  Looking at cross tabs it looks like Blacks are more likely than Whites to be “undecided” at this stage, so that’s another good indicator for Hood. 

Honestly I expected something like Reeves +8, so I’m happy with this result for the time being. 

No, not really. Look at the undecideds by party, there are more undecided republicans than undecided democrats. Hood will likely lose by 6 to 8
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2019, 12:19:24 PM »
Hood must achieve 50 or else it goes to Reeves, anyways
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OneJ
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« Reply #16 on: October 23, 2019, 01:33:21 PM »
Oof, not great but this was expected.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: October 23, 2019, 01:34:20 PM »
Those remaining independents are definitely going to break for Reeves... Hood will be lucky to get 46% in the end.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 23, 2019, 02:11:36 PM »
Quote from: Xing on October 23, 2019, 10:54:46 AM
Quote from: Politician on October 23, 2019, 07:09:59 AM
Atlas told me Hood has a better chance than Beshear, though.

He does, because MS polls don't underestimate Republicans the way that KY polls generally do. That's not saying much, though, since Hood is pretty much done for as well.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2019, 02:46:35 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 23, 2019, 01:34:20 PM
Those remaining independents are definitely going to break for Reeves... Hood will be lucky to get 46% in the end.

Which means he would do about as well as Mike Espy did last year against Cindy Hyde-Smith.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2019, 02:54:16 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 23, 2019, 07:09:59 AM
Atlas told me Hood has a better chance than Beshear, though.

1) He almost certainly does.

2) Who is this Atlas guy you keep referring to? Because it’s certainly not US Election Atlas Dot Org.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2019, 04:07:24 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on October 23, 2019, 02:46:35 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 23, 2019, 01:34:20 PM
Those remaining independents are definitely going to break for Reeves... Hood will be lucky to get 46% in the end.

Which means he would do about as well as Mike Espy did last year against Cindy Hyde-Smith.

That’s my opinion, Reeves wins 53/45
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2019, 08:32:05 PM »
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