FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:12:58 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3  (Read 2482 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


« on: October 22, 2019, 11:15:30 AM »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

Okay, let's take a look :

FL-SEN 2018 :
March 2017 poll : Nelson +6
October 2017 poll : Nelson +1
February 2018 poll : Nelson +6
September 2018 poll : Tied
October 2018 : Nelson +1
Average : Nelson +2.8

FL-GOV 2018 :
September 2018 poll : Gillum +4
October 2018 poll : Gillum +6
Average : Gillum +5


FL-PRES 2016 :
Early October 2016 poll : Clinton +7
Late October 2016 poll : Clinton +2
Average : Clinton +4.5

See a pattern ?

Not to be rude, but its dumb to average an entire poll cycle and compare it to the final results. The only race they really failed in was the Governor race in 2018.

Their final presidential poll and Senate poll results were both within the MoE.

Bardley Effect? People lie to pollsters down there? Old people are notoriously easy to poll. The only thing I see going on is that Democrats stay home in Florida.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2019, 11:37:58 AM »

You can trust that if Biden/Warren win Florida (which, despite Atlas' insistence, can easily happen), it's not going to be by that wide of a margin. Florida will be decided by less than 2 points either way.

Trump can run away with it if he hit his ceiling. Just like how W got within maybe 2% of his ceiling in 2004.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.021 seconds with 13 queries.