FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3 (user search)
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  FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3  (Read 2487 times)
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


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« on: October 22, 2019, 08:50:06 AM »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018 (the one which had Gillum leading by 6)

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2019, 08:58:21 AM »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2019, 10:46:52 AM »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

Okay, let's take a look :

FL-SEN 2018 :
March 2017 poll : Nelson +6
October 2017 poll : Nelson +1
February 2018 poll : Nelson +6
September 2018 poll : Tied
October 2018 : Nelson +1
Average : Nelson +2.8

FL-GOV 2018 :
September 2018 poll : Gillum +4
October 2018 poll : Gillum +6
Average : Gillum +5


FL-PRES 2016 :
Early October 2016 poll : Clinton +7
Late October 2016 poll : Clinton +2
Average : Clinton +4.5

See a pattern ?
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2019, 11:19:39 AM »

Well, I hope for democrats that this poll is more accurate than the one of October 2018

What a bunch of geniuses : ''Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race" said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

UNF has an A- rating from 538.  Every pollster gets some results wrong occasionally.  The way you keep bringing up such misses is getting repetitive and tiresome.  Give it a rest; you've made the point.

You have to put things in perspective.

And no ; when a pollster consistently overestimates the candidates of one political party, it's not a ''occasional miss''

You cited one miss from UNF, in a race that many pollsters got wrong.

Okay, let's take a look :

FL-SEN 2018 :
March 2017 poll : Nelson +6
October 2017 poll : Nelson +1
February 2018 poll : Nelson +6
September 2018 poll : Tied
October 2018 : Nelson +1
Average : Nelson +2.8

FL-GOV 2018 :
September 2018 poll : Gillum +4
October 2018 poll : Gillum +6
Average : Gillum +5


FL-PRES 2016 :
Early October 2016 poll : Clinton +7
Late October 2016 poll : Clinton +2
Average : Clinton +4.5

See a pattern ?

Not to be rude, but its dumb to average an entire poll cycle and compare it to the final results. The only race they really failed in was the Governor race in 2018.

Their final presidential poll and Senate poll results were both within the MoE.

The point is that every poll done by the UNF for these three major races had the democratic candidate leading by varying margins, even if in the end democrats lost every race listed above.
UMF is consistently overestimating democratic candidates, that’s the point I wanted to make
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2019, 03:23:48 PM »

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.
In my opinion the polls in FL were so bad in the 2018 you have to assume unless Dems are up 5-8 pts in polls that Trump is ahead.

You’re too optimistic, I think. But yeah, Trump would probably defeat Biden by 2 and Warren by 4.
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Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2019, 04:41:39 PM »

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.
In my opinion the polls in FL were so bad in the 2018 you have to assume unless Dems are up 5-8 pts in polls that Trump is ahead.

You’re too optimistic, I think. But yeah, Trump would probably defeat Biden by 2 and Warren by 4.

Certainly possible, but why would you assume Biden will do worse than Clinton in Florida?  Trump's margin over her was 1.2%.

Well, there are at least 5 reasons

1. Cuban Americans have warmed up to Trump, it should help him in the Miami area and to some extent in the Tampa area. Thus I can see Trump winning 35/36% in Miami DADE county, which would be a small improvement compared to 2016.

2. Palm Beach is slowly becoming more R friendly, it’s pretty uncommon to see a such large county trending to the right. It should help Trump to offset the potential loss of Duval/Seminole

3. The D registration advantage is shrinking fast. In 2012 Dems had a 540k voting registration advantage, it’s now barely above 240k. It’s not a good trend for them, especially when you consider that democrats have usually some problems in order to turnout out their voters.

4. Many former swing counties are becoming very hostile to democrats. Pasco is the best example. It was once very swingy, Obama did very well here in 2008 and Nelson won it by a big margin in 2012 and even in 2014 Charlie Christ remained competitive, but since then things have gone from bad to worse for dems, next year Trump could come very close to winning 60% here.

5. The large influx of retirees remains a big problem for dems as these voters are reliable voters.
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