FL-UNF: Biden +5, Warren +3, Buttigieg -1, Harris -3

[President Johnson]

Pure tossup until election day with Biden, tilt or lean Republican with anyone else. However, I don't trust Florida polling that much any longer, especially after Gillum and Nelson were supposed to win.

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.

In my opinion the polls in FL were so bad in the 2018 you have to assume unless Dems are up 5-8 pts in polls that Trump is ahead.

You’re too optimistic, I think. But yeah, Trump would probably defeat Biden by 2 and Warren by 4.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.

In my opinion the polls in FL were so bad in the 2018 you have to assume unless Dems are up 5-8 pts in polls that Trump is ahead.

You’re too optimistic, I think. But yeah, Trump would probably defeat Biden by 2 and Warren by 4.

Certainly possible, but why would you assume Biden will do worse than Clinton in Florida?  Trump's margin over her was 1.2%.

[Frenchrepublican]

Safe R. FL polls always way oversample dems. Trump is probably up 1-3 on Biden 4-7 on Warren, Pete

Bad samples can occur, but you're suggesting 7 points worth.  Not impossible, but it's a lot.

In my opinion the polls in FL were so bad in the 2018 you have to assume unless Dems are up 5-8 pts in polls that Trump is ahead.

You’re too optimistic, I think. But yeah, Trump would probably defeat Biden by 2 and Warren by 4.

Certainly possible, but why would you assume Biden will do worse than Clinton in Florida?  Trump's margin over her was 1.2%.

Well, there are at least 5 reasons

1. Cuban Americans have warmed up to Trump, it should help him in the Miami area and to some extent in the Tampa area. Thus I can see Trump winning 35/36% in Miami DADE county, which would be a small improvement compared to 2016.

2. Palm Beach is slowly becoming more R friendly, it’s pretty uncommon to see a such large county trending to the right. It should help Trump to offset the potential loss of Duval/Seminole

3. The D registration advantage is shrinking fast. In 2012 Dems had a 540k voting registration advantage, it’s now barely above 240k. It’s not a good trend for them, especially when you consider that democrats have usually some problems in order to turnout out their voters.

4. Many former swing counties are becoming very hostile to democrats. Pasco is the best example. It was once very swingy, Obama did very well here in 2008 and Nelson won it by a big margin in 2012 and even in 2014 Charlie Christ remained competitive, but since then things have gone from bad to worse for dems, next year Trump could come very close to winning 60% here.

5. The large influx of retirees remains a big problem for dems as these voters are reliable voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More tax payers paying into Social security will be beneficial to GDP if PR is added as a state. Trump won FL in 2016, due to Rubio dropping out of Prez race and running for Senate. Same with Portman and Toomey and Johnson; as a result, Trump is the underdog.

[IceSpear]

Only the Buttigieg number looks accurate. Though it's a bit friendly to Trump, I'll give it a pass since they're not using decimals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Only the Buttigieg number looks accurate. Though it's a bit friendly to Trump, I'll give it a pass since they're not using decimals.

I get why people can think a poll is generally off in one direction or another.  But how can you reasonably think that the same poll is off for every candidate except one? 

[pbrower2a]

Florida is usually a bit more R than the US as a whole, but it tends to go with the winner. 

[IceSpear]

Only the Buttigieg number looks accurate. Though it's a bit friendly to Trump, I'll give it a pass since they're not using decimals.

I get why people can think a poll is generally off in one direction or another.  But how can you reasonably think that the same poll is off for every candidate except one? 

It was a joke.

[MT Treasurer]

FL isn’t Lean/Likely R, nor is it guaranteed to vote for Trump in a close race, nor is it less likely to flip than NC and IA.

[adamevans]

Casually excluding Bernie Sanders while including 4th and 5th place candidates

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Too positive for the Democrats, i think it's a +5 bias towards the Democratic Party, but with Buttigieg / Harris being closer if they end up being the nominee, as more people are undecided. Biden might win it narrowly, but I think Trump wins against all the other candidates in Florida.